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South West England Cold Spell Discussion

Methuselah

By Methuselah
in Summer Weather Discussion

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Here we go again... :(

  • Replies 391
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Cheers Pete,

A very rosy picture being painted by the METO for some parts of the southwest, this is for Warminster which is only 15 miles or so from me.

Which I'll be honest seems a bit optimisitic but I'd rather see it than not. !

post-6326-12619845594513_thumb.png

Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Author
Posted

Having just heard Five Live's forecast, methinks this thread will get rather busy, as time goes on? :cold:

dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

What a excellent forecast by Ian this morning,with snow maybe starting off as far as Chedder/North Devon.

But the main event Bristol Northwards with 10cm in places.

But he did stress as alway's its hard to say exactly where

SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Ian on the local news had the snow area over me. It is just so annoying that there is so much uncertainty at close range.

GFS is still not having any of it, and has the low tracking even further north up to Carlisle. UKMO has it going further north too. At least the meto have adjusted the fax charts and go against it, with the low not getting past Birmingham.

All in all very very confusing picture and I guess it's a case of waiting and seeing what happens.

dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Ian on the local news had the snow area over me. It is just so annoying that there is so much uncertainty at close range.

GFS is still not having any of it, and has the low tracking even further north up to Carlisle. UKMO has it going further north too. At least the meto have adjusted the fax charts and go against it, with the low not getting past Birmingham.

All in all very very confusing picture and I guess it's a case of waiting and seeing what happens.

Steve if we can get it to stall at Brum we will have a nasty large accumulation's...

Once in every 30 yrs event

SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Steve if we can get it to stall at Brum we will have a nasty large accumulation's...

Once in every 30 yrs event

Why is nothing ever simple in this Country, it does my head in. I so hope I wake up tomorrow morning buried in snowdrinks.gif .

Once we know how far north the front goes, we should have a better idea for the rest of the week, which currently looks very good.

dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Why is nothing ever simple in this Country, it does my head in. I so hope I wake up tomorrow morning buried in snowdrinks.gif .

Once we know how far north the front goes, we should have a better idea for the rest of the week, which currently looks very good.

The way I look at it is that Ian is in touch with better data than we are.

And he was confident or seemed to be that Parts of the S/W are going to have snow.

The more North you are the better the risk,His understanding of the event.

I am just keeping an eye on his forecast as the guy knows what he's talking about.

It does seem that the LP isnt going as far North as first thought.

Though I think it will change by tomorrow again.

But if you take Ian's forecast literally then be prepared,of course it might all change by tomorrow.

EDIT Twister...over 10cm...lol

Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

The way I look at it is that Ian is in touch with better data than we are.

And he was confident or seemed to be that Parts of the S/W are going to have snow.

The more North you are the better the risk,His understanding of the event.

I am just keeping an eye on his forecast as the guy knows what he's talking about.

It does seem that the LP isnt going as far North as first thought.

Though I think it will change by tomorrow again.

But if you take Ian's forecast literally then be prepared,of course it might all change by tomorrow.

EDIT Twister...over 10cm...lol

He does put out a clear forecast it has to be said, after looking at his graphics he seems to think the possible snow line if we call it that would be the mendip hills and northwards from that. (cheddar being southern edge of hills) so i do maintain hope at my height but it will be close. pardon.gif

dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

He does put out a clear forecast it has to be said, after looking at his graphics he seems to think the possible snow line if we call it that would be the mendip hills and northwards from that. (cheddar being southern edge of hills) so i do maintain hope at my height but it will be close. pardon.gif

I take it Mullender this Lp isnt going as far North as first thought.

Ian on Local just said M4 northwatds is the best bet.

On the national BBC

have the snow as far East as London North...with long periods of snow smack over M4 Northwards

but with some snow on and off further South in parts

Wilxy Experienced

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Snow risk has gone further south this morning but also looked lke it could rain :D:)

Snow risk has gone further south this morning but also looked lke it could rain :D:)

Also it looks v mixed now so if it snows and settles wont be any good if it rains.

noggin Aficionado

noggin

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Good Morning, peeps. :)

I am now totally confused. Whilst reading the model discussion thread much earlier this morning, it seemed that the snow is going to be way oop north, Scotland even. :o :(

Now, on our own dear thread, peeps are saying it looks like we will be getting snow.

I am sooooooo confuzzled. :rofl:

Wilxy Experienced

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Good Morning, peeps. smile.gif

I am now totally confused. Whilst reading the model discussion thread much earlier this morning, it seemed that the snow is going to be way oop north, Scotland even. ohmy.gifsad.gif

Now, on our own dear thread, peeps are saying it looks like we will be getting snow.

I am sooooooo confuzzled. blink.gif

Im looking at metoffice and bbc weather but god knows il just be to confused and will probs just have nervous breakdown if i get to confused.

BristolBlizzard Rookie

BristolBlizzard

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Snow risk has gone further south this morning but also looked lke it could rain :o :)

Snow risk has gone further south this morning but also looked lke it could rain :(:)

Also it looks v mixed now so if it snows and settles wont be any good if it rains.

i think there may be large amounts of snow ...with just small bits of rain at first on and off ,but just snow later on ...im sure if ians about later he can help us all :rofl:

03jtrickey Apprentice

03jtrickey

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Posted

This is so annoying. I'm just glad I'm not a weather forecaster at the moment. I would have no hair left to tear out.

Wilxy Experienced

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

I still think M4 northwards maybe.

03jtrickey Apprentice

03jtrickey

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
Posted

Might want to check this thread, a helpful post from Roger at the bottom.

dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

well Im just going to follow Ian to be honest,as If I listen to the other thread's I wont have hair myself.

And IF it doesnt happen then I will feel let down BUT it's better than loosing my hair with frustration listen to all other confusing opinon's.

Stick with Ian,he as better data than us!!!

Roger sum's up the Beeb's forecast...with a conveyour streamer across the parts..

edit SKY going with the BBC..

SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

I just don't know about this area. Where my sister lives in Hereford I would bet they are going to get hammered, plus where you are Dogs.

Much more suspect as you move south.

WeatherXP Newbie

WeatherXP

Posted
  • Location: Cinderford, Gloucestershire
  • Location: Cinderford, Gloucestershire
Posted

Well i am hoping that here in the Forest of Dean we are both far enough north and high enough (about 200 metres / 600+ feet) to see some significant snow during Tuesday - Thursday. Only problem is i am supposed to be heading to St Albans tomorrow so may have to postpone those plans if the forecasts verify!

Rich :good:

aspire27 Newbie

aspire27

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, Bristol
Posted

Well people this setup is the best for the SW. Cold air feeding in from the east and a LP system moving up from the SW.

This is when out area can get a good covering, especially Gloucester.

Also the outlook for the week looks promising too...

Cant wait to watch that radar tonight!!!!!!!!! going to be interesting

I just don't know about this area. Where my sister lives in Hereford I would bet they are going to get hammered, plus where you are Dogs.

Much more suspect as you move south.

Im sorry to say mate you live in Weston Super Warm Mare.

So many times my father has left his home in Yatton with snow and frost and got to work to find weston a washout...

too close to that warming see.

SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Well people this setup is the best for the SW. Cold air feeding in from the east and a LP system moving up from the SW.

This is when out area can get a good covering, especially Gloucester.

Also the outlook for the week looks promising too...

Cant wait to watch that radar tonight!!!!!!!!! going to be interesting

Im sorry to say mate you live in Weston Super Warm Mare.

So many times my father has left his home in Yatton with snow and frost and got to work to find weston a washout...

too close to that warming see.

I agree, but I still have hope, plus supposed to be going shopping in Bristol tomorrow & to Cribbs to the cinema on Wednesday night.

If I don't get snow here, might see some on my travels.

Tommyyy Newbie

Tommyyy

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow - Where The Wye Meets The Severn ... about 0m asl
  • Location: Chepstow - Where The Wye Meets The Severn ... about 0m asl
Posted

I think we are due an upgrade today at about 11 :cold::D

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