Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 9

[Snooz]

True northerly airflow soon to meet edge of westerly cloud movement:

http://www.sat24.com/

Ah ha! Mondy is that perhaps what the weather warnings are for? - would explain the confusion over that band that is fizzling out just now, the chart I posted earlier seemed to suggest that the N/NE snow wasn't happening until around midnight.. this would of course make Northerlights the luckiest person (or unlucky depending on your preference) he could be about to be hit twice?

this "band" has showed some very mild flurries on the Huntly webcam, but I've been working for the last few hours and not noticed what's happening outside.. trots off for a look

has "warmed up here too -4.4C @5:30 to -2.2C now.. DP -3

[Cheggers]

Bl**dy baltic up here.... had to refit gutter that collapsed from Saturday\Sundays snow, no fun at -5

[Snooz]

very very light flurry when I went outside, though I can confirm the "balticness" - It's crispy white with no depth so I presume icing sugar dustings are all that's gone on, it's also slippy!!

[Sunny Leith]

I'm not against ramping as such, I mean theres nothing I'd like better than to see Edinburgh hit by 1 metre of level snow (Edit; obviously without any road tragedies or OAPs frozen solid to the toilet seat )

But I'm a realist and from experience I'm happy to take whatever snow comes my way ... a few inches is enough at the end of the day to beautify the cities and countryside, or to build snowmen and go sledging.

Dissapointment is imminent dahn sarf with too many punters on the model thread hopecasting record snowfall totals (why ?) in the midlands or in wales... fronts stalling and blizzards and drifts engulfing the country.

The dissapointment when these hopecasts fall flat on their face will be tangible and bitter ... glad to say I haven't seen that mentality on here as it inevitably leads to bipolar threads and unwelcome hangovers when the white stuff doesn't deliver to its overly hyped up extent.

Ironic that we've had 12 days of the stuff up here so far - been realistic about whats happening and about expectations - and we're possibly the least hyping/ramping "cold spell" thread on NetWeather ! Long may that continue

I think a lot of people in the South are going to be disappointed if the weather pans out ala Ian Fergusons's comments on the South West thread.

[Polarlow]

If Norrance or Amanda_Langlands are reading this- can you tell how much snow there is in Dundee? I've been away since Christmas eve and I'm back in Dundee this saturday.

I can confirm that 3-4 inches of snow, that is solid, is still on the ground in artic like "Menzieshill" ....

currently -3.9c

[Mondy]

I'm not against ramping as such, I mean theres nothing I'd like better than to see Edinburgh hit by 1 metre of level snow (Edit; obviously without any road tragedies or OAPs frozen solid to the toilet seat )

But I'm a realist and from experience I'm happy to take whatever snow comes my way ... a few inches is enough at the end of the day to beautify the cities and countryside, or to build snowmen and go sledging.

Dissapointment is imminent dahn sarf with too many punters on the model thread hopecasting record snowfall totals (why ?) in the midlands or in wales... fronts stalling and blizzards and drifts engulfing the country.

The dissapointment when these hopecasts fall flat on their face will be tangible and bitter ... glad to say I haven't seen that mentality on here as it inevitably leads to bipolar threads and unwelcome hangovers when the white stuff doesn't deliver to its overly hyped up extent.

Ironic that we've had 12 days of the stuff up here so far - been realistic about whats happening and about expectations - and we're possibly the least hyping/ramping "cold spell" thread on NetWeather ! Long may that continue

Good post! The fallout will be bitter when things don't go to plan. I already see temps aren't behaving in some areas which expect HUGE amounts of the white stuff; that's not so good for the forum as a whole.

They will blame each other and perhaps even blame certain regions/areas for "stealing" their snow. They will attempt to blame us Jocks, but what they are really doing is being drip fed by punters who have a little more experience in winter set-ups and are giving it "LARGE" - either by trying to impress or showing off their pro-amateur forecasting skills!

I hope many do see a decent snowfall, but I can't help thinking this is being hyped to the max?

[Cheggers]

A9 very bad with black ice everywhere, several shunts etc, in-laws just took 7 hours from the Weeg to Sneckie!!!

[Sawel]

I can confirm that 3-4 inches of snow, that is solid, is still on the ground in artic like "Menzieshill" ....

currently -3.9c

Thanks Polarlow, I stay near the Law so I imagine conditions are fairly similar there. Can't believe how long we've had snow on the ground now....

[Guest]

has "warmed up here too -4.4C @5:30 to -2.2C now.. DP -3

It may be getting warmer up there, however Glasgow Airport is down to -8C at 8.50pm. The second equal coldest temp recorded since January 2003, according to a quick flick through the archives on WeatherOnline. Granted it is second equal with several other -8C values

And what is the coldest (I hear you ask) since January 2003?? Wednesday the 23rd December 2009.

[Richard Taylor]

Hi aII, ABZ airport rporting Iight snow shwrs.

[Snooz]

It may be getting warmer up there, however Glasgow Airport is down to -8C at 8.50pm. The second equal coldest temp recorded since January 2003, according to a quick flick through the archives on WeatherOnline. Granted it is second equal with several other -8C values

And what is the coldest (I hear you ask) since January 2003?? Wednesday the 23rd December 2009.

I'm glad I asked - see these 2009 stats are fading in the memories already hehehe

even "warmer" here now @ -1.3C

[Mondy]

This is today's temps in order:

8am: -9.6C

11am -6C

2pm -5.6C

4pm -5.0C

5pm -3.0C (lowest today)

7pm -4.3C

9pm -8.2C

Interesting little trend

[Guest]

This is today's temps in order:

8am: -9.6C

11am -6C

2pm -5.6C

4pm -5.0C

5pm -3.0C (lowest today)

7pm -4.3C

9pm -8.2C

Interesting little trend

You're getting snow blindness when you call your warmest temp of the day your lowest ;)

[Zerouali lives]

where is the easterlie originating?

Great start to the GFS 18z run - the northerly becomes established by Wednesday lunch time soany thaw will only be very brief during the early hours of Wednesday IMO

[Guest]

Great start to the GFS 18z run - the northerly becomes established by Wednesday lunch time soany thaw will only be very brief during the early hours of Wednesday IMO

You are right about the thaw, but is it a northerly or a north-easterly or an easterly?? Or just the mother of all arctic outbreaks seen this decade??

What are the chances that one of the best cold weather periods of the decade happens in the last 2 weeks of it?

I also think we may see something special (extra-special) during this week for Scotland, conditions are becoming favourable for PL formation, in my humble opinion. Which has always been wrong before now.

[Northernlights]

Can see the tops of the showers highlighted by the moonlight to the north across the Firth. Don"t know if they will get here tonight, currently -6c.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 18Z is out, and it's an upgrade for the cold anyway - generally less precipitation around on Tuesday night (though with convection showers you can never be sure) but the threat of coastal rain into Wednesday appears to have been avoided - this is the mildest the thicknesses get between now and this time next week (probably) and even this is conduicive to snow in most areas. As many others, including TWS on the model output discussion, have said, the models generally underestimate easterly convective showers, so details are far from decided, but I doubt anyone would claim that the showers wouldn't be heavy or penetrate very far inland with wind speeds like this:

Most posters on the model thread are suggesting the snow showers in eastern Scotland could last until Saturday, with winds alternating between a straight easterly (ESE for about 6 hours tomorrow) and a NNEsterly, giving most areas about 24 hours under the the wind speed that geographically favours them (barring those surrounded by hills to the north and east!). Obviously, eastern areas are favoured, especially the northeast corner if winds are north of east more often than not, but I'm fairly confident some fairly significant accumulations could even occur across western Scotland. Basically, this is all of the major easterly/northeasterly convective events of the last few years rolled into one 5/6 day long period - bring it on!

LS

edit: just seen catch is polar low speculating again

I think the necessary requirement for it is a big high to the west and lows to the east in a northerlyish flow. If so, Hogmanay looks perfect for it:

That would be the way to end the year!

Edited December 28, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[LadyPakal]

Very short snow shower earlier but nothing now. NOthing on the greound to show either.

The Dee is freezing over - huge amounts of ice it looks like the arctic out there.

[Sawel]

I think that shortwave off the coast off Norway is being a real pain in the backside. It's stopping a proper NE flow and seems to be holding the coldest air back, then when the shortwave hits our shores, there's very little PPN left!

Edited December 28, 2009 by Sawel

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Weather online says Benbecula currently has -29? Surely some mistake?

Out at shops earlier - so cold I couldn't have any part of my skin exposed or it would get sore.

[Mondy]

You're getting snow blindness when you call your warmest temp of the day your lowest :)

OOPs - warmer!!

Talking of the Dee freezing over maks me wonder about the recent temps quoted for the North Sea as a whole. 7 or 8C i think.

As this cold spell continues, particularly coming from the east/north east, actual temps in the N.Sea must be lower than 8c

[Sunny Leith]

Don't sweat it Sawel, things can change and probably will. I'd never bet my mortgage on the precision of anything past t24 !

I think that shortwave off the coast off Norway is being a real pain in the backside. It's stopping a proper NE flow and seems to be holding the coldest air back, then when the shortwave hits our shores, there's very little PPN left!

[Sawel]

Don't sweat it Sawel, things can change and probably will. I'd never bet my mortgage on the precision of anything past t24 !

It does look better on the UKMO and ECM runs so you're right, I shouldn't sweat it.

The GFS has been performing awfully this past couple of days anyway...

On the +144 hrs verification charts it verified worst model for yesterday and same again for today. The NOGAPS model even beat it

Edited December 28, 2009 by Sawel

[Mondy]

Weather online says Benbecula currently has -29? Surely some mistake?

Out at shops earlier - so cold I couldn't have any part of my skin exposed or it would get sore.

Yeah, Benbecula been reporting scary temps recently due to a fault. Which begs the question, just how reliable are some of these UK weather stations? Where exactly are some of them located - are they a true reflection? I know many of the US surface temp stations are laughable when you see where they are plonked (next to mega car-parks etc) but don't really know anything about the surface stations here in the UK? I passed by Loch Glascarnoch reporting station this year and that really is a neat looking weather station - LINK

Edited December 28, 2009 by Mondy

[Sunny Leith]

Its takes time Mondy.

I can only recall a few times in my life (I admit I'm 49 years old) when I ever heard the shipping forecast indicate "light icing" in the north sea regions to our due east or south-east. Give it a few more weeks though of natural seasonal cooling - throw in the possibility of this cold spell continuing, or at least re-emerging later in the season - and the warming effect will diminish by a couple of degrees at least from these values...

Would make any marginal snow events ... well, non-marginal !

OOPs - warmer!!

Talking of the Dee freezing over maks me wonder about the recent temps quoted for the North Sea as a whole. 7 or 8C i think.

As this cold spell continues, particularly coming from the east/north east, actual temps in the N.Sea must be lower than 8c

Edited December 28, 2009 by by-tor