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East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion Part 19


MAF

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Is it looking better for snow now in Kent? It was all further North last time I looked...

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Are you serious. Rain tommorow but thursday snow and the rest of the week heavy snow showers.

Not for most of the week, not enough convective energy in the North Sea for the showers to spark off

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Probably a lot of rain for this area, then possibly back edge snow as the whole lot clears away. The models have actuallyu upgraded for the SE since the last 18z run as the low this time clears to the south and drags in a colder flow from the North Sea.

Of course this evolution could quite easily change again as it is a very fluid set-up but it seems quite probable that we are about to enter another rather sustained cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Probably a lot of rain for this area, then possibly back edge snow as the whole lot clears away. The models have actuallyu upgraded for the SE since the last 18z run as the low this time clears to the south and drags in a colder flow from the North Sea.

Of course this evolution could quite easily change again as it is a very fluid set-up but it seems quite probable that we are about to enter another rather sustained cold spell.

I cant see more snowfall than the previous snap on the 17-18th, not enough convective activity on the North Sea, there may be a small window where some heavy snow showers come inland, but I cant seeing that window lasting any more than 2 days. Thursday and Friday look promising though for this region

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Posted
  • Location: Slough
  • Location: Slough

Probably a lot of rain for this area, then possibly back edge snow as the whole lot clears away. The models have actuallyu upgraded for the SE since the last 18z run as the low this time clears to the south and drags in a colder flow from the North Sea.

Of course this evolution could quite easily change again as it is a very fluid set-up but it seems quite probable that we are about to enter another rather sustained cold spell.

I'd agree with this, except I'd say there 'WILL' be a lot of rain. Then we 'might' get some back edge snow. Although this I see is wishful too. All this talk of blizzards is frankly madness, ramping that's all. Maybe some back edge snow of 1cm and that'll cause the chaos that we've been warned about.

People should be more worried about flooding and nasty ice!

Further North then, yes, there'll be more significant snow.

Edited by rmc1987
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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Stortford
  • Location: Bishops Stortford

I'd agree with this, except I'd say there 'WILL' be a lot of rain. Then we 'might' get some back edge snow. Although this I see is wishful too. All this talk of blizzards is frankly madness, ramping that's all. Maybe some back edge snow of 1cm and that'll cause the chaos that we've been warned about.

People should be more worried about flooding and nasty ice!

Further North then, yes, there'll be more significant snow.

As I understand it, the Midland and Wales are the only southern regions at threat of snow tomorrow and Wednesday - with heavy rain in the South East/East Anglia. However, as we reach Thursday/Friday, the snow risk moves to the South East/East Anglia and we could see a lot of snow.

Edited by Matt12
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

As I understand it, the Midland and Wales are the only southern regions at threat of snow tomorrow and Wednesday - with heavy rain in the South East/East Anglia. However, as we reach Thursday/Friday, the snow risk moves to the South East/East Anglia and we could see a lot of snow.

looking at the fax chart i would say thursday night friday morning has the best chance of snow fall for the south east possibly very heavy falls thurday night!

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Posted
  • Location: Slough
  • Location: Slough

As I understand it, the Midland and Wales are the only southern regions at threat of snow tomorrow and Wednesday - with heavy rain in the South East/East Anglia. However, as we reach Thursday/Friday, the snow risk moves to the South East/East Anglia and we could see a lot of snow.

Could do, but won't, POSSIBLY back edge, very little at that. Rain will be a big issue I'm afraid and that's what the caution needs to be about.

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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl

Despite the low moving south I think it will miss the SE although the Northern part of East Anglia is now in play in terms of snow

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Posted
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill
  • Weather Preferences: snow, storms or both at same time..
  • Location: Home = Haywards Heath. Work = Burgess Hill

I can't imagine I will see as much snow as I did on the 17th here in Brighton (5 inches), but with some of the charts I've seen tonight I can't rule it out :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I'd agree with this, except I'd say there 'WILL' be a lot of rain. Then we 'might' get some back edge snow. Although this I see is wishful too. All this talk of blizzards is frankly madness, ramping that's all. Maybe some back edge snow of 1cm and that'll cause the chaos that we've been warned about.

People should be more worried about flooding and nasty ice!

Further North then, yes, there'll be more significant snow.

Slough (I use to live there) is one of those places that will get rain. A short drive to Stoken church (500ft) and you will gte your heavy snow tomorrow

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I'd agree with this, except I'd say there 'WILL' be a lot of rain. Then we 'might' get some back edge snow. Although this I see is wishful too. All this talk of blizzards is frankly madness, ramping that's all. Maybe some back edge snow of 1cm and that'll cause the chaos that we've been warned about.

People should be more worried about flooding and nasty ice!

Further North then, yes, there'll be more significant snow.

The reason I say probably alot of heavy rain is because it depends on the exacts of the front, it could end up being further north then expected yet and the core of the rain ends up being further north, just liker the 18z from last night. That solution has been backed away from though for now.

I think there is NO reason why there won't be back edge snow, you've got a cold upper flow digging quite hard in behind the front.

I'd be more worried about the front drying up then whether it not being cold enough as the cold comes south, I'm almost certain it wil lbe cold enough but typically such undercuts tends to cut the front to pieces and weakens it very rapidly.

Regardless I agree our main worry is deffo with regards to the rain...this will probabl quite a memorable event in the fact that some places are getting very heavy snow whilst others are getting very heavy rain...

Saying all that the UKMO latest update probably wouldn't give more then 20-25mm here as the bands focus in a little to the north of our region...

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet
  • Location: Barnet

I'd agree with this, except I'd say there 'WILL' be a lot of rain. Then we 'might' get some back edge snow. Although this I see is wishful too. All this talk of blizzards is frankly madness, ramping that's all. Maybe some back edge snow of 1cm and that'll cause the chaos that we've been warned about.

People should be more worried about flooding and nasty ice!

Further North then, yes, there'll be more significant snow.

how can yo just say this when the charts are showing the cold air undercutting the prep therefore rsulting in SNOW. More then 1 cm aswell...

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Posted
  • Location: Slough
  • Location: Slough

how can yo just say this when the charts are showing the cold air undercutting the prep therefore rsulting in SNOW. More then 1 cm aswell...

The undercutting cold won't be quite cold enough.....and by then the PPN will weaken.

Edited by rmc1987
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Guys, why are you arguing about the backedge snow on thursday? Let's for the sake of our own sanity write off the ppn from this front as rain. The real cold for this area kicks in thursday night into friday. And despite what anyone says, with that much cold air around and winds coming off the north sea (even if its only for a 36 hour period), there is a fairly good chance of convective snow showers pushing west into our region. You just dont know what little disturbances and streamers will develop at short notice. Its happened many times before. E.g. Jan 2003. Not until the night before the 8th of Jan was it forecast that a heavy area of snow was developing in the north sea and the next day gave us 4 inches of snow during the day in London. It may not happen, but anything is possible in this set up.

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Posted
  • Location: northwood
  • Location: northwood

The undercutting cold won't be quite cold enough.....and by then the PPN will weaken.

Nobody can really say what will happen even the models don`t agree at this late stage :rofl: !

By bet is on rain turning to snow some heavy around north/west london sticking in places, its down to radar nowcasting!

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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl

Nobody can really say what will happen even the models don`t agree at this late stage :cc_confused: !

By bet is on rain turning to snow some heavy around north/west london sticking in places, its down to radar nowcasting!

Agree with this. North / North West London seems to do well in these marginal situations

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The undercutting cold won't be quite cold enough.....and by then the PPN will weaken.

As I said before I suspect the undercutting will be cold enough but as I said before the effect it has is to really weaken the front. Saying that for the northern part of the region the front could yet be strong enough to give some snowfall on the way back south, in fact I'd suggest the chances are higher that it does happen then it doesn't...however the magic of marginal set-ups is you never quite know.

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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl

As I said before I suspect the undercutting will be cold enough but as I said before the effect it has is to really weaken the front. Saying that for the northern part of the region the front could yet be strong enough to give some snowfall on the way back south, in fact I'd suggest the chances are higher that it does happen then it doesn't...however the magic of marginal set-ups is you never quite know.

Latest BBC charts are showing snow for the northern part of our region.

Not for our areas sadly

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Posted
  • Location: Slough
  • Location: Slough

Latest BBC charts are showing snow for the northern part of our region.

Not for our areas sadly

This is what I'm saying, Oxford (Maybe Herts too) being where the change begins. Sadly, lots of rain we can be certain of.

Edited by rmc1987
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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl

This is what I'm saying, Oxford (Maybe Herts too) being where the change begins. Sadly, lots of rain we can be certain of.

I know - such a waste.

I can see Northern London getting hit - they often do in these marginal situations

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Forget about this frontal snow. Its likely to be extremely marginal at best. Its looking quite good on Friday/Saturday for our area. Lets not get too downbeat about the next 3 days.

Edited by danm
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