General Model Output Discussion:

[HighPressure]

Even in the winter of 62/63 the Thames didn't freeze over

Much harder for the Thames to freeze in modern days as its narrower then it was back in the 17th century!

[Frosty.]

If the ECM 12z is correct, the gfs has a lot of catching up to do. The gfs seems to have been playing catch up over the last few days but is still nowhere near as good as the ecm, gem or nogaps, with the gfs still not on board though it puts a question mark over next week, the second half of it anyway.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Frosty039

[yamkin]

Very true.

However at the moment based on what I have seen from the GEM/ECM the trend is backing away from a W based NAO. Also like I said my previous post many of the ECM ensembles must of been showing this as the 12Z fits perfectly with the forecast whereas the 0Z didn't.

Im going to resist getting excited (very diifcult) and would expect the GFS to pick up this trend in 5 days time. :lol:

Hi TEITS, I'm getting excited by these charts :lol: By the way, every time you mention Your Bath Time is coming up, great charts appear. Must be a lucky omen

[Tom Quintavalle]

Yes certainly bank that ECM run, that has to be one of the coldest runs I've seen since being on the internet.

That little low moves SW from the Norwegian coast towards Shetland and engulfs them in snow at t216 but I wouldn't worry

Shetlanders you could escape on the bridge of ice that forms between you and the Norwegian coast!

Seriously, what sort 850s and surface temps would we be looking at during this run?

Regards,

Tom.

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst the ECM is a great run for snow lovers for large parts of the UK, i do remain slightly skeptical as we know the charts will change to what we have now.

It would be nice if the 00Z ECM follow suit but i tend to find the 00Z run tend to be more "realistic" and does not as often give us all the cold and snowy charts that sometimes the 12Z ECM does.

All the models keep the cold theme going for quite a few days into January but for snow lovers, the ECM is by far the best whilst the GFS/UKMO are much drier in comparison.

GEM gets menturn quite a bit on here recently but i don't tend to follow it too much. The only thing about the GEM i don't like it tends to spawn up too many shortwaves and like the GFS, we get messy charts. Although saying that, it can't be doing that bad if it's up there with the main models in terms of performance.

[Iceni]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?29-0

*IF* the 216 & 240 Charts developed there would be pancake iceflow down the estuary- all local rivers frozen-

Surface temps WELL below freezing by day-

From a meterolgical perpective It would be EPIC, although fundamentally damaging to the economy....

S

Indeed Steve. During the '63 winter (and still in the Christmas school holidays) it got cold enough to allow us to take a pony onto the ice on Frensham Ponds pulling us on our sledge behind. The ice was 18" thick.

[SMU]

Yes certainly bank that ECM run, that has to be one of the coldest runs I've seen since being on the internet.

That little low moves SW from the Norwegian coast towards Shetland and engulfs them in snow at t216 but I wouldn't worry

Shetlanders you could escape on the bridge of ice that forms between you and the Norwegian coast!

Seriously, what sort 850s and surface temps would we be looking at during this run?

Regards,

Tom.

this would be my STAB at temps at 240 ( just so people know what we talking about here)

Daytime MAXIMA

LONDON -5c

MADCHESTER -7C

ABERDEED ( As long as there was no slack coastal flow) -10c

Highlands -18/-20

Overnight minima

LONDON -8c

MANCHESTER -10C

ABERDEEN -15C

Highlands -30C

These are all guesses but I promise you they would varify close IF we were in slack air-

S

[igloo]

Much harder for the Thames to freeze in modern days as its narrower then it was back in the 17th century!

highly unlikely to freeze the rivers where i stay are only 20 yards wide and 10ft deep and they havent frozen solid for over 20 years or so they used to freeze solid every 2-3 year in the 70s and early 80s and i stay in the southern uplands

[Nick F]

*IF* the 216 & 240 Charts developed there would be pancake iceflow down the estuary- all local rivers frozen-

Surface temps WELL below freezing by day-

From a meterolgical perpective It would be EPIC, although fundamentally damaging to the economy....

S

Certainly stunning evolution from ECM, there's nothing remotely mild from t+72-240. I'm having to pinch myself with such unusual synoptics for recent years which may become reality. Remembering also, December is not statistically the coldest month of the year, January is, and it looks increasingly likely we will get colder (and snowier) than the most recent cold spell - particularly if ECM verifies.

This winter may really test the modern functioning of this country, particularly the populated areas of England, never since I started model watching have we faced the true possibility of a long cold winter showing from NWP - with no signs of the block to our NW dissapating anytime soon. Interesting times ahead ...

[Polar Continental]

this would be my STAB at temps at 240 ( just so people know what we talking about here)

Daytime MAXIMA

LONDON -5c

MADCHESTER -7C

ABERDEED ( As long as there was no slack coastal flow) -10c

Highlands -18/-20

Overnight minima

LONDON -8c

MANCHESTER -10C

ABERDEEN -15C

Highlands -30C

These are all guesses but I promise you they would varify close IF we were in slack air-

S

Struth, what the ECM has just produced is something from memory lane, or even beyond that, 1795! when was the last frost fair held on the Thames? Faster flowing today though, so i doubt it could happen.

At T192 the airflow would be bitter and unstable after crossing the north sea, I would think from that chart, there would be widespread heavy powder snow over many eastern areas of England and Scotland. Then followed by even colder conditions, amazing, but we are not there yet.

[aspire27]

Sounds like another bout of high excitement in this thread! Are we anywhere near the reliable timframe for any of these stunning models to come to fruition? Or again just a FI tease?

[SMU]

Certainly stunning evolution from ECM, there's nothing remotely mild from t+72-240. I'm having to pinch myself with such unusual synoptics for recent years which may become reality. Remembering also, December is not statistically the coldest month of the year, January is, and it looks increasingly likely we will get colder (and snowier) than the most recent cold spell - particularly if ECM verifies.

This winter may really test the modern functioning of this country, particularly the populated areas of England, never since I started model watching have we faced the true possibility of a long cold winter showing from NWP - with no signs of the block to our NW dissapating anytime soon. Interesting times ahead ...

Yes- totally Agree with all that- we ( the UK populus ) consider a few days of -2/03 Ground frost & max's around 2c a harsh cold spell-

The reality of the ECM would cause serious threat to lives & peoples livelihood-

The best ECM run EVER today- its even better than I think I could have imagined- With snow also approaching from the SE at 240...

If this comes CLOSE to varifying then the UK will remain white until at LEAST day 15-

S

Edited December 29, 2009 by Steve Murr

[kent]

Struth, what the ECM has just produced is something from memory lane, or even beyond that, 1795! when was the last frost fair held on the Thames? Faster flowing today though, so i doubt it could happen.

At T192 the airflow would be bitter and unstable after crossing the north sea, I would think from that chart, there would be widespread heavy powder snow over many eastern areas of England and Scotland. Then followed by even colder conditions, amazing, but we are not there yet.

Armegheddons coming then.

[swfc]

Great run from ecm and does look plausable.Strangly you woudnt think that anything wintry was on the way looking outside here its raining.??? <_<

[SMU]

Sounds like another bout of high excitement in this thread! Are we anywhere near the reliable timframe for any of these stunning models to come to fruition? Or again just a FI tease?

High excitement to 96- for reality- rough agreement 96-144 ie very cold & snowy to very cold + dry- 144 onwards its a raffle.. but the trend is staying very cold with a push from the North- possibly the NE

S

[rmc1987]

Isn't this all in FI and likely to materialise far off the mark currently shown?

[sebastiaan1973]

Hey Guys,

at www.weerwoord.be someone already put the temperatures for De Bilt based on tonights ECM 12run

He always receives these temperatures earlier, so these temperatures can be trusted.

30: +1/+1

31: 0/-1

1: 0/-1

2: -2/-7 ---> bij sneeuwdek tot -12 (My translation, with snowcoverage -12)

3: -5/-8 ---> bij sneeuwdek tot -12

4: -5/-8

5: -5/-8

6: 0/-6

7: -1/-6

8: -2/-7

[Jayces]

Certainly stunning evolution from ECM, there's nothing remotely mild from t+72-240. I'm having to pinch myself with such unusual synoptics for recent years which may become reality. Remembering also, December is not statistically the coldest month of the year, January is, and it looks increasingly likely we will get colder (and snowier) than the most recent cold spell - particularly if ECM verifies.

This winter may really test the modern functioning of this country, particularly the populated areas of England, never since I started model watching have we faced the true possibility of a long cold winter showing from NWP - with no signs of the block to our NW dissapating anytime soon. Interesting times ahead ...

We can't handle 5 cm of snow in London so I don't think there would be much of a test to be honest, it's pretty much guaranteed disruption whatever happens if there is a lot of snow in the SE.

But as we are often reminded especially with snow the reliable timeframe is +6 ish so looking a week ahead although nice is still a long way a way.

Question though on how models work, do they feed in similar scenarios from other setups like the cold periods of the 80's to predict what may happen or is it a case of like snow flakes that every setup is so different and has so many variables that even 2 similar setups could produe very different results?

[mcweather]

Yes- totally Agree with all that- we ( the UK populus ) consider a few days of -2/03 Ground frost & max's around 2c a harsh cold spell-

The reality of the ECM would cause serious threat to lives & peoples livelihood-

The best ECM run EVER today- its even better than I think I could have imagined- With snow also approaching from the SE at 240...

If this comes CLOSE to varifying then the UK will remain white until at LEAST day 15-

S

Have to agree with you there Steve.

I have been watching charts on the internet for the last ten years and tonights ECM is the most staggeringly cold and snowy I have seen and that includes all the fantasy crap served up by GFS over the years too. The interesting (and worrying) thing is that we are looking at an entirely plausible scenario.

[nick sussex]

Now i hope people can see why i was moaning about the gfs and ukmo! the ecm is absolutely brilliant, here we see the model keep the block further east because the eastern USA trough does us a favour by boxing the block in, this stops it from edging too far west the trough also orientates more favourably whilst edging ne'wards, what happens over there is crucial if the ecm is to verify.

Last night NOAA expected the trough to edge ne'wards later and the block to remain strong and near Greenland/Eastern Canada so the ecm is not just throwing out some wild fantasy. Again though we need events upstream to work in our favour, also i like the ecm as it will bring lots of snow to the Pyrenees and perhaps even a little to me further down.

Edited December 29, 2009 by nick sussex

[Bristawl Si]

Have to agree with you there Steve.

I have been watching charts on the internet for the last ten years and tonights ECM is the most staggeringly cold and snowy I have seen and that includes all the fantasy crap served up by GFS over the years too. The interesting (and worrying) thing is that we are looking at an entirely plausible scenario.

Yes, but isn't this deep cold and possible snow continually being pushed back in time? It's only a couple of days ago that the models were showing a major snow event for New Years Eve/Day. That seems to have been played down somewhat during today by forecasters. FI to me is about T48 at the mo!

[GoonerGregg]

There will be a drastic downgrade I'm sure. I am flabagasted at the models, but surely these will not come to fruition. Being realistic.

[Polar Continental]

Have to agree with you there Steve.

I have been watching charts on the internet for the last ten years and tonights ECM is the most staggeringly cold and snowy I have seen and that includes all the fantasy crap served up by GFS over the years too. The interesting (and worrying) thing is that we are looking at an entirely plausible scenario.

To be honest, though going slightly off Topic here, If the ECM did verify, modern infrastructure in my opinion should cope better than during the 60’s and 70’s, for instance modern additives in Diesel prevents it freezing as it did back then, so transport should keep moving, as long as the roads are cleared. Coal powered power stations have mostly been replaced with gas, which is piped. So people should be able to keep their homes warm.

The ECM is projecting very cold conditions, snow, which falls, would be mainly the powder variety, if handled correctly this snow is easier to shift than heavy wet snow.

As long as the powers that be get geared up and prepared, they should cope, after all these multi million pound weather models are not just produced for us weather watchers.

[cooling climate]

Well I have to say this again but after waiting and wanting to see synoptic charts only half as good as

these for so, so long, we would have given our right arms for any of the synoptic runs today to have

been on offer especially after the baron winters of the last 10 years.

This is even more special in the fact that many areas have just seen the best pre Christmas cold spell

since 95 or even as far back as 81 yet here we are just a few days later staring down the barrel of what

could be an epic cold spell.

With all the blocking and the tanking AO I think it was only a question of time before a run like the ECM 12z

came out which is nothing short of a cold and snow lovers dream run.

The ECM run is not without backing, obviously from the meto updated forcast today and also the CPC charts

and prognostic discussions last night of which I am more than confident they will repeat again tonight.

The ECM is in my book the model to follow during this upcoming and perhaps epic freeze.

[phil nw.]

Yes remarkably cold and snowy output from ECM.

GEM is none to shabby either,here at T132hrs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=1

-12C into the SE brrr.