Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Paranoid]

Snow looks like it's going to be a bit of a no-show here. 3c seems way too warm for snow, it's been drizzling on and off since about midday here anyawy. Warwick does have the remarkable ability to avoid snow =P.

I remember reading something on the met office warnings a few days ago that confidence on forecasting heavy snow was low, do any of the model viewers know why this was? I haven't been keeping up to date on the model discussions.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Snow looks like it's going to be a bit of a no-show here. 3c seems way too warm for snow, it's been drizzling on and off since about midday here anyawy. Warwick does have the remarkable ability to avoid snow =P.

I remember reading something on the met office warnings a few days ago that confidence on forecasting heavy snow was low, do any of the model viewers know why this was? I haven't been keeping up to date on the model discussions.

The 12z drops the temp to between 1 and 2 degrees by midnight so don't give up hope.

[Luke3000]

Its now sleet

Is there still hope ??

[dvdfjojo]

Temp 2.1 and dewpoint 0.4 here and I've got light rain. Unless this beefs up a bit, I think that's going to be it

[ISAAC]

people should not worry about the intensitiy of the band... it will continuesly to fizzle and pep here and there throughout this evening and tonight. Since it's incredibly slow moving too, it aint going to anywhere atleast for the next 6-10 hours!

HOWEVER the issue is not enough cold- SIMPLE AS.

[Koppite]

Looks like its turning a little sleety here, but only moderate at best.

[snowmadchrisuk]

From Simon at Weatheronline .

Issued: 14:24hrs Tuesday 29th December 2009

Simon. Snow is now intensifying as it heads north through Wales, southern England and into the Midlands. Webcams in mid-Wales show coverings of snow on the leading edge of the main rain band and I think it will get going in the Midlands soon. However, we need moderate rain to fall in order for temperatures to drop and allow the snow not to thaw before reaching the ground.

[phantom]

Absolute whiteout here minus 8 just look at my back garden.

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kamera-C1452100.html

[Fozfoster]

Snow looks like it's going to be a bit of a no-show here. 3c seems way too warm for snow, it's been drizzling on and off since about midday here anyawy. Warwick does have the remarkable ability to avoid snow =P.

I remember reading something on the met office warnings a few days ago that confidence on forecasting heavy snow was low, do any of the model viewers know why this was? I haven't been keeping up to date on the model discussions.

Your right fella, its a miss allmost every time Just before christmas it stalled about 6 miles south of warwick.

[we_want_snow]

The Heaviest of the stuff still below Birmingham

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Try keep some faith

[SalopWatcher]

Looking at the radar the only snow falling is still at altitue, shrop hills, welsh mountains...

nothing but rain here most of the day

[TonyH]

Lets see what happens tonight. The band could well intensify and at least the air is cold and does not have to fall so much lower for snow, along with heavier precipitation that would cause snow. Also we have an easterly still.

I have only just logged on after a welcome break from all the hype excitement , we went for a walk around Coombe Abbey near Coventry and it is a really raw afternoon, and from experience such conditions have led to a decent snowfalls here.

Spots of rain/ sleet this afternoon in Coventry with a max of 3.5c, its 2.5c now, with steadier light rain or sleet.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Tonyh

[chapmanraven]

Absolute whiteout here minus 8 just look at my back garden.

http://alk.tiehallin...a-C1452100.html

LOL where did I put that passport

[nwales]

Do you honestly believe, that after the Met Office issuing warnings of significant snowfall for parts of Wales and the west Midlands, that it will not materialise? Some people need to relax and stop with the "yet another non-event" posts. If anyone thinks they can do better than the meteorologists at the Met Office, then you can always apply for one of their vacancies. I'm sure with your knowledge and experience, they are just waiting for people like you.

Until tomorrow midday, it's still all to play for!

I hope for you guys in the Midlands that you're right. However the fact is that a warning was issued here for 5-10cm with up to 15cm on hills - I am reasonably high up and surrounded by the Chiltern Hills, it has been sleeting for hours, the temp is static at 2c and the band of weather will have passed over us before long. The snow that they have warned about has not materialised here at least. Still hoping I'm wrong of course!

Edited December 29, 2009 by sbucks

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

HOWEVER the issue is not enough cold- SIMPLE AS.

Indeedy ISAAC, although I have to admit I thought there would be some snow over the Malverns etc earlier this afternoon.

Haven't really looked in to it, but would suggest the cold air is yet to dig under the ppn.

If we remember correctly, the BBC TV forecast was for snow this evening/early morning (depending on location), so not really wrong at the moment.

[kar999]

To be fair BBC downgraded the Midlands to rain/sleet with the snow only on Welsh Hills at 10:45PM last night if I recall correctly.

Here you go.... downgraded last night and it's more or less bang on so far with a none event always on the cards for us Midlanders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pl76h/BBC_Weather_28_12_2009/

[chapmanraven]

I'm off to cook dinner. Hopefully things will have changed by the time I get back online.

I do still think that despite the temps etc as they are at the moment, it will change and we will get snow.

[kev238]

If you look at the warnings for some parts of the Midlands they are actually valid from 4pm until 3am. Well, I make it 1 hour into the warning period for many. Surely the warning is of as time period where something should happen. The warning does not mean continuous snowfall from 4pm to 3am- more a window of opporunity. If at 3am there is nothing lying on the ground then start the post mortems.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well metoffice have updated their warnings but not downgraded ours, they now cover most of the north too

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Geordiesnow]

Like i said, patience is needed, temps will very slowly drop tonight and this is when the rain could indeed turn to snow.

The band is not going to move anywhere fast either.

Problem is, i think the low is slightly further north than it was expected last night hence why the PPN is further North thus milder air is also slightly further North so it will be a struggle but areas on the northern edge of the band should hopefully see that rain slowly turning more wintry.

Anyways, those in the eastern half of the region have some hope in terms of convective showers during around Thursday Night and most of the day on Friday which may accumulate.

[Soma]

The Heaviest of the stuff still below Birmingham

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Try keep some faith

Indeed and I'm under it w_w_s! I regretfully report only rain, not sleet, rain.

I appreciate that quote from Simon Weatheronline on his blog but that was over two hours ago, as Isaac says it's the temps that are the problem - too high. Unless something happens temp wise in the next few hours it has been a criminal waste of precipitation!

[dvdfjojo]

bliddy hell - it's intensified as soon as it's got north of me again. What's a gal gotta do to get some snow - argh!!!!

[locneverstop]

It may be worth noting that through my connections I know that the West Midlands Police have received a call from the Met Office to expect Heavy Snow overnight....

[cyclonic happiness]

latest rainfall radar is looking promising, with a more unform green looking area, this to me means that the rain/sleet is on the verge of turning to snow proper over larger areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Edited December 29, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[conor123]

Light rain occasionally sleety in heavier bursts for the last hour...