Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[cyclonic happiness]

bliddy hell - it's intensified as soon as it's got north of me again. What's a gal gotta do to get some snow - argh!!!!

It's avoiding you coz you are a WARKS traitor still

Moderate rain here has just turned sleety for the first time tonight.

Edited December 29, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[Nick L]

Out of all the disappointments this cold spell (and as we know there have been plenty) this has to top it off!

It's nowhere near cold enough, simple as. And the temperature still refuses to drop and the dew point still continues to rise!

Edited December 29, 2009 by nick2702

[PolarWarsaw]

Im remaining positive which is unlike me as the front will stall over us for a good period of the night - perhaps into the early hours and its then that the transition "might/could/potentially" take place . I am aware though that this transition is in the balance and as i said last night i full expect my PPN to be off rain for most if not all of the night. This event was ALWAYS going to be so marginal for there to be a massive ruck of snow. Dare say my negativity was right last night - i hope not and there's plenty of time left - although i do fear im going to be proven right.

[Snowmoon]

Here you go.... downgraded last night and it's more or less bang on so far with a none event always on the cards for us Midlanders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pl76h/BBC_Weather_28_12_2009/

All the BBC forecasts I've seen yesterday and today have been predicting heavy snow in the West Midlands! For example, have a look at this:

"Snow hits parts of the UK with heavier falls to come"

"BBC weather forecaster Peter Gibbs predicted Wales and the West Midlands would suffer "blizzard conditions" later on Tuesday due to the strong winds."

I'm not criticising the forecasters, as snow is a difficult thing to call correctly, but please let's reflect what they've been saying accurately!

[we_want_snow]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/22

Snow coming......

I think not

[Pete Bourne]

Indeed and I'm under it w_w_s! I regretfully report only rain, not sleet, rain.

I appreciate that quote from Simon Weatheronline on his blog but that was over two hours ago, as Isaac says it's the temps that are the problem - too high. Unless something happens temp wise in the next few hours it has been a criminal waste of precipitation!

Hello All, My 1st time on here so hope this appears in the right box. I'm also from Droitwich. A mysterious place as it rarely snows here. Got rain though!

[ISAAC]

I am not doubting the forecasts from every aspect instead i just want to nudge those who are expecting tonns of snow from this. Yes there will be the pdd few who could get a good dusting by tommrow evening but you have to understand the Met Office will always go for the extreme possibilty rather than the norm, it's what they are paid to do... warn people of a threat not guarantee snowfall.

there is still plenty of time for temperature and dew point drops, only due to the fact we have a low that is reluctant to move anywhere too soon, which gives more chance for evaporative cooling and under cutting cold uppers from the Easterly winds. This is going to be a very slow process unfortunatly and like the forecasts have emphasised there's just so much uncertianty about what's going to happen.

The way things are looking i would say most people should see falling sleet and snow by 11pm tonight, regarding intensity? i have no idea but my guess would be a few areas will be lucky get some sort of a covering at least, we have to just pray the band doesnt extend too far north ( from gloucestershire to manchester) and of course we need alot of yellows and oranges for any possible accumulations.

[Nabraxas]

2.9c here with a dew point of 0c - seems as though the pptn has developed that gap which aims for Leicester again though

[we_want_snow]

Look at the warning, nowhere near

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Still hope with the latter

[dvdfjojo]

It's avoiding you coz you are a WARKS traitor still

Moderate rain here has just turned sleety for the first time tonight.

Have changed it now - roll on the snow

[kar999]

"BBC weather forecaster Peter Gibbs predicted Wales and the West Midlands would suffer "blizzard conditions" later on Tuesday due to the strong winds."

I'm not criticising the forecasters, as snow is a difficult thing to call correctly, but please let's reflect what they've been saying accurately!

To be fair that's the only mention of the west midlands. Most of the forecasts were for Wales to take the brunt of todays bad weather which has indeed come to pass as per forecast. General warnings for other regions is more on a "covering their backsides basis" because as you say, snow is a difficult one to call.

[cyclonic happiness]

Have changed it now - roll on the snow

Yay!!!! rain still sleety here, I reckon about an hour till ignition.

(btw. welcome to warwickshire)

[dogs32]

I would be surprised if some of you dont get snow tonight..

We or I have had some heavy snow rain mix at times..

Currently the heavy mix is still here with a current temp of 2.0

Trust me it's on the edge of turning to complete snow,but its not tipping in my favour at present.

Some of you have elevation on your side which should tip in your favour.

good luck..

edit..Dan Corbett as the LP moving more North now than earlier,

Edited December 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Serendipity]

I'm under the heavier stuff and can confirm it is still rain here. Not even a hint of sleet. Temp of 2.4 and dp of 1.6 .

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'm under the heavier stuff and can confirm it is still rain here. Not even a hint of sleet. Temp of 2.4 and dp of 1.6 .

its rain up here as well.

What on earth were all the warnings for?I notice the beeb have mainly rain tomorrow with a hint of sleet.

major let down i fear.

:o

[Costa Del Fal]

I think we have a bit of sleet chucked in with the heavier bursts.

[MKN]

2.9c here with a dew point of 0c - seems as though the pptn has developed that gap which aims for Leicester again though :o

We look ok for some of the heavier stuff for a while, only problem is its rain not snow atm. and unless it changes soon it will pass through before it gets a chance to.

[MKN]

Has anywhere near the midlands actually reported snow?

[ISAAC]

Issued: 17:03hrs Tuesday 29th December 2009

Simon: Will the snow be allowed to snow? Yes, I know it sounds crazy but the models have consistently overplayed the amount of precipitation which was forecast to fall today across England and Wales. Okay, it is raining now over a large part of central England and the whole of Wales with snow on the hills, and quite a covering in places too. However, what is happening is that much of the rainfall is evaporating (or at least has been through this morning and this afternoon) before reaching the ground; a glimpse at the radar confiormed this - you might have seent the radar and thought it should be raining/snowing where you were, but it was dry? And what is so dfrustrating for me as a forecaster is that the signals were there. So, I'm left wondering if I have turned into a 'model monkey'? I hope not!!! Through this evenig and tonight I do think the rain will be turning more widely to snow. You can see the latest reports here. I still think 30cm of snow over the hills of Wales is possible, and perhaps 5 to 10cm at low levels for parts of eastern Wales and the western Midlands - but it is a close call at low levels!

^ i agree

EDIT: Evaporative cooling is taking place here, slowly. temp dropping roughly 0.1c per every 10-15 mins

[Snowmoon]

To be fair that's the only mention of the west midlands. Most of the forecasts were for Wales to take the brunt of todays bad weather which has indeed come to pass as per forecast. General warnings for other regions is more on a "covering their backsides basis" because as you say, snow is a difficult one to call.

I've seen the Malverns specifically mentioned in national BBC forecasts over the past 24 hours for the first time that I can remember, simply because of the potential for there to be inches of snow. As it is, there's less than an inch here, although I appreciate there are plenty of people around the country who can still only dream of that! :o

[dvdfjojo]

I've got temp of 1.8 and dewpoint of 0.3 now so it should be more borderline once the heavier stuff comes in, I hope!!!! Still 100% rain at the moment though.

P.S. Are any of the Stokies getting any snow - it's been heavy there for a good while?

Edited December 29, 2009 by dvdfjojo

[kano1990]

heavy sleet here, even if its snows in wont stick

[evansc5487]

Rain here in Wolverhampton for last hour, now turning heavier, temp 2'c. Even if it does snow (which it won't) it will be wet and wouldn't settle on the wet ground anyway. As I said earlier today another Non-Event, just not cold enough and the midlands is not a very favourable location for any decent snow. You have to have the perfect battle of established cold air coming up against wet and milder atlantic air and that happens with the perftect outcome once in a blue moon. That is the the only way we have ever had any decent snow and it is not going to happen at the moment.

[Koppite]

I think we have a bit of sleet chucked in with the heavier bursts.

Yep same here.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep same here.

Probably the closest we will get for some time or maybe all night. Utter rubbish.