General Model Output Discussion

[yamkin]

[kent]

No, not nationwide!

F1 F1

[Thundersquall]

That's an amazing run from ECM. Those charts for the 12Z run seem to suggest at least a chance of something wintry for the southern UK, lasting from Sunday until at least Thursday / Friday.

Nice second Channel Low forming on Thursday 7th January.

Just a slight problem, though, is we're starting to lose that Greenland High by Thursday and more noticeably by Friday.

It's slipping southwards in the direction of the Azores.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Thundersquall

[yamkin]

I must confess to not being an expert on the Thames streamer, ask me about the Wash streamer and I will bore you all evening. However looking at the ECM so far surely a Thames streamer would develop?

On TWO forum, they are talking about this Thames Steamer too

[nick sussex]

A nice ECM so far! the 192hrs looks very cold with a slack flow, a question for Steve, wouldn't all that cold over Scandi promote a high building over there given the set up?

[azores92]

signs of the polar vortex reorganising again and the high sinking into the mid atlantic. surely cant bode well for long-term prospects though?

[SMU]

signs of the polar vortex reorganising again and the high sinking into the mid atlantic. surely cant bode well for long-term prospects though?

WHO CARES>>>>- UK WEATHER is being driven by the upper trough...

Looks like a scandi high will develop at 240 from that....

S

[yamkin]

WHO CARES>>>>- UK WEATHER is being driven by the upper trough...

Looks like a scandi high will develop at 240 from that....

S

Would a Scandi High produce bitter TEITS Beast from the East winds?

[TEITS]

At +216 you would have more widespread snow showers penetrating well inland. The lying snow in the SE would be of epic proportions.

[Thundersquall]

At first sight I thought the T+240 chart from ECM didn't look promising as far as a prolonged cold spell is concerned.

But does the shape look like an Omega block forming? Shortwave to west of High pressure ridge could save the day?

[SMU]

Would a Scandi High produce bitter TEITS Beast from the East winds?

Probably-

I think though, for now- we need to be content with whats infront of us- 2/3 days ago the breakdown was at 240, & its still there-

to be honest I dont really mind- the actualy mild air on the 12z ECM is around 300 Hours away .....

in the meantime we have 9-10 days of potential snow, ice, blizzards, frost & windchill to talk of- not to mention the possibility of record cold minima -

S

Edited December 30, 2009 by Steve Murr

[PB22]

F1 F1

Whats Formula 1 got to do with weather?!

Stunning ECM, if that came off much of the south-east would be snowbound.

ECM has also been very consistent over recent days in its output.

[Geordiesnow]

Very good ECM imo, keeps the cold going for a very long time and quite a few people should see at least some snowfall.

My only concern would be, how far would the showers get inland in such a slack flow? This of course will change but to make the ECM an stonking run for more people, you would like too see those isobars closer together therefore, more snow showers for more people.

Some stunning charts tonight, shame it's a little bit too far out but things are certainly upgrading at this moment in time.

[TEITS]

Probably-

I think though, for now- we need to be content with whats infront of us- 2/3 days ago the breakdown was at 240, & its still there-

in the meantime we have 9-10 days of potential snow, ice, blizzards, frost & windchill to talk of- not to mention the possibility of record cold minima -

S

Yep couldn't give a monkeys about any possible breakdown.

Come Friday we might have a better idea for the beginning of next week. However on Friday it will be all eyes on the radar to keep an eye on any possible snow showers moving S. I think some are forgetting about the possible snow showers into E areas from tomorrow night onwards.

[nick sussex]

At +216 you would have more widespread snow showers penetrating well inland. The lying snow in the SE would be of epic proportions.

Next stop on the midnight train to snow and cold nirvana is the Scandi high!, if that PV heads to the north of Norway after 192hrs then surely the net result would be the high building over there between the PV and low heights to south, that gap would have to be filled with something!

Altogether a wonderful run, i'm still mindful of the key 120hrs/144hrs timeframe but if we can negotiate that then it's all systems go!

[GoonerGregg]

Looking good then!

HAPPY NEW YEAR SNOW FANS!!!!!

UP THE ARSENAL FOR TONIGHT! RED ARMY!!!

[yamkin]

Probably-

I think though, for now- we need to be content with whats infront of us- 2/3 days ago the breakdown was at 240, & its still there-

to be honest I dont really mind- the actualy mild air on the 12z ECM is around 300 Hours away .....

in the meantime we have 9-10 days of potential snow, ice, blizzards, frost & windchill to talk of- not to mention the possibility of record cold minima -

S

Good points. By the way, NOGAPS 12Z is also looking very good

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

OK - EMC, GEM, UKMO are on a similar track with GFS partly there and thats this SW LP approaching and then shifting east to the south of the UK through France and linking up with a cold Scandi trough within 5 days, what are the percentages on this happening now and leaving as Steve M says (from the ECM output) in some fairly severe conditions? not wanting to tempt fate though!

Edited December 30, 2009 by Timmy H

[winter watcher]

Probably-

I think though, for now- we need to be content with whats infront of us- 2/3 days ago the breakdown was at 240, & its still there-

to be honest I dont really mind- the actualy mild air on the 12z ECM is around 300 Hours away .....

in the meantime we have 9-10 days of potential snow, ice, blizzards, frost & windchill to talk of- not to mention the possibility of record cold minima -

S

A quick question please Steve. What chances would you rate the Ecm coming true i see your Joe 'B Signature and wonder what you are expecting to happen?

[on the coast]

Yep couldn't give a monkeys about any possible breakdown.

Come Friday we might have a better idea for the beginning of next week. However on Friday it will be all eyes on the radar to keep an eye on any possible snow showers moving S. I think some are forgetting about the possible snow showers into E areas from tomorrow night onwards.

I agree about those snow showers. Might be reading it wrong but sure the latest fax chart i saw at 48hrs showed snow moving South down the coast?

[winter watcher]

OK - EMC, GEM, UKMO are on a similar track with GFS partly there and thats this SW LP approaching and then shifting east to the south of the UK through France and linking up with a cold Scandi trough within 5 days, what are the percentages on this happening now and leaving as Steve M says in some fairly severe conditions? not wanting to tempt fate though!

Wrong way round GFS are playing catch up with The ECM, UKMO, GEM,

[johnholmes]

Apart from the upper air parameters - which require very similar soundings as yours the key is the SURFACE Flow of between 265 degrees ( MAX EASTERLY) to 250 degrees ( MAX NORTHERLY COMPONENT) as you can see a small Window-

S

eh

265 =max easterly and 250=max northerly

I'm lost Steve; care to explain please?

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Wrong way round GFS are playing catch up with The ECM, UKMO, GEM,

Sorry worded incorrectly - that's what I meant, also like Nick mentioned just a little tad worried as per my earlier post whilst watching ECM roll out that the approaching LP might move too far north and not far enough to the east (glass half empty again).

[nick sussex]

OK - EMC, GEM, UKMO are on a similar track with GFS partly there and thats this SW LP approaching and then shifting east to the south of the UK through France and linking up with a cold Scandi trough within 5 days, what are the percentages on this happening now and leaving as Steve M says in some fairly severe conditions? not wanting to tempt fate though!

Nothings a given in weather models but i suppose that's why it's so interesting and keeps everyone biting their finger nails at each model run especially when the end result would be so fantastic. We do need a bit of luck, we need to see the sw low and trough over Scandi link up favourably and it's important the sw low gets far enough east to the south. Theres a good chance but no ones celebrating just yet, stll a couple of more days to go. The situation is very fluid in that it's one of those mystery tours, we're not quite sure what the final destination is yet but at the moment at least it's looking like a cold and wintry one.

Edited December 30, 2009 by nick sussex

[Paul_1978]

F1 F1

F1? :lol: How long have you been here?