Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

Thanks for that link - that a great site. I have just ordered a weather station so will add mine to that when it comes - been champing at the bit waiting for it to come - emailed the company and theyre are on a shut down until 4th Jan dohhhhh!!!

Just checked the weather station nearest to me in Derby and it has a dewpoint of -7 - what does that mean seems a bit low

http://www.wundergro...y.asp?ID=MAS770

No problem, it is an excellent site. The dewpoint is the temperature at which the air needs to be to condense into water (ie. fog). When the dew point and temperature are very close fog can form. I think that is a correct basic definition anyway! When wanting snow, the dew point needs to be below 0.

[cyclonic happiness]

Precipitation charts from the 12z show there may be something more meaningful coming through here saturday night sunday daytime, a trough maybe?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

[Cheese Rice]

Thanks for that link - that a great site. I have just ordered a weather station so will add mine to that when it comes - been champing at the bit waiting for it to come - emailed the company and theyre are on a shut down until 4th Jan dohhhhh!!!

Just checked the weather station nearest to me in Derby and it has a dewpoint of -7 - what does that mean seems a bit low

http://www.wundergro...y.asp?ID=MAS770

Basically the dew point is very important as it makes the difference between snow and rain, a dew point of 0.c and below will mean the precipitation will fall as snow, above 0.c the precipitation is likely to fall as rain or wet snow.

All you need to remember is-

- Dew point of 0.c and below= SNOW

- Dew point of 0.c to 1.c= SLEET/WET SNOW/RAIN

- Dew point of 1.c+= RAIN

In some cases snow can fall with a dew point above 1.c, this usually occurs in spring in showers. Rain can also fall with dew points below 0.c, this isn't common but can happen.

Also if there is a large difference between the temperature and the dew point the precipitation is likely to fall as hail, e.g. A temperature of 1.c and a dew point of -3.c is likely to cause hail.

The weather station you are referring to looks wrong as the dew points won't be that low, typically the dew point across the UK is -2.c to 1.c atm.

[Snowcheeks]

The weather station you are referring to looks wrong as the dew points won't be that low, typically the dew point across the UK is -2.c to 1.c atm

thats one of the reasons I was asking I've never seen DP quoted that low before

[chapmanraven]

I've just been reading the model thread and people seem to be getting excited about the latest runs.

Weather09, you seem to have a good grasp of the model outputs are they really as unusual as is being suggested?

[Nick L]

More suggestion of eventually getting a proper easterly, not a north easterly. As the early days of the Feb cold spell proved, a more direct easterly is much better for the whole Midlands.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Just some points to add before heading off out.

First, regarding the easterly vs. n/e benefits. Both can be beneficial for the West and East Midlands, depending on the source, rather than just the direction.

One thing to point out, is that a n/e is likely to be more beneficial in blowing showers in to our region, whilst an easterly seems to give us a better chance of a more prolonged snowy spell.

However, both are similar in the benefits for our region, with the easterly more beneficial for the East Midlands.

What I would say, is that ppn is coming potentially coming from troughs, of which will not be accurately forecast at best until the <T+24. Surprises in this scenario can quite easily crop up, so never give up hope.

It is going to get very cold, well below average, with beneficial H500 and 850HPA.

Never give up, but always expect Scotland, the n/e, East Anglia and the s/e to be in the most beneficial positions...but please do not feel there is a s/e or east bias on the model discussion thread - There is just a greater risk for these areas.

Just to add another 'spanner in the works', SKY news a little earlier, on their forecast, showed a band of ppn moving south across the country, with it over northern England by noon - They then stopped the forecast

Enjoy the evening, and remember - tomorrow is another day, and expect the unexpected

[chapmanraven]

weather09 & Shiny_bottom_1 thanks for the info and thanks for putting it in plain English. I actually understand what your saying, reading the model thread has me scampering all over the internet trying to fathom it all out, thanks again.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I think it's unusual in the sense that this cold spell of weather has been quite prolonged and looks like continuing further for over a week. What is quite exciting as Nick points out, is the potent easterly towards the end of next week which could be like the one that affected the country this February in terms of widespread significant snowfall. To be more general though, the whole country will be entrenched in very cold air, with airflow directions coming from the north, north east and east, so our chances of seeing snow next week is quite high.

Perhaps a little optimistic, but given what GFS and UKMO models are showing, I think everyone has the right to be!

I'd say these current conditions are the best for years as they're coming from a position of deep cold already, not reloading from a mild scenario !!

[BlueHedgehog074]

*taps hand lightly on chin* Hmmmmm...

...This could be quite an interesting week ahead then with 'some snow' or 'lots of snow'. Which ever way it turns out, I will still be pleased just to see a bit of snow - after what happened in the last few days or so I guess it is something to expect. Clearly, though, if the winds do end up being from mainly the East or North East, then it could really get the gears of the snowy weather turning.

[Snowyowl9]

I'd say these current conditions are the best for years as they're coming from a position of deep cold already, not reloading from a mild scenario !!

The charts we have now on GFS have a 1963 winter look about them,locked into cold.

2 greenlands highs already this winter is something else,going well against what previous El nino

winters have given.

Scandinavian highs mixed with greeny highs are the best for cold and snow though.

[we_want_snow]

I'll start by wishing everyone a Happy New Year. hope you have a good'un.

My temperatue is already -2.5C at 6pm. You say it's getting colder. Lovely

I'm in a poor place for snow, was Feb 09 and Easterly as i got 6/7inches from that?

Happy New Year, may it start with a snow feast

[FENDER.]

You dont think the NAD has finally ground to a halt do you.

[cyclonic happiness]

I've suddenly found a reason to be grateful even if it doesn't snow.

Now, if this cold spell gets severe enough and, as our central heating has packed up completely and we can't get it fixed till mid' Jan', I may just be able to put two fingers up to all my fellow 47/63 veterans who are constantly reminding me of windows frosting up on the insides and how they had to light their coal fires (of which we have two) at 6AM every morning after nights of sleeping with full jimjams and bedsocks.

I'm gonna do a mini report on my "winter of discontent" and post it every day, with inside temps and such.

I live in a house built in 1875 with a couple of sasf windows up stairs and drafts-a-plenty.

It'll be an interesting sort of, experiment for me, what do you guys think?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecmwf FI not looking good, mild at 192, but much better before then than the 00Z, northerly with troughs likely

[azores92]

ecmwf FI not looking good, mild at 192, but much better before then than the 00Z, northerly with troughs likely

howd i know it was going to be you commenting on the poor ECM tonight mark . a real mish mash of outcomes in the models tonight, UKMO and GFS looking good, but the jet overrides the high in tonights ECM sinking it down to europe, giving us SWesterlies. as steve murr has said, this thing happened in december, where ECM went off on one. could it happen again? potentially plenty to look forward to in the meantime. enjoy the cold while it lasts folks

[TEITS]

Looks like something interesting is developing in the Wash.

Seems some of the E midlands members have believed the BBC instead of reading my posts this morning. Either that or their busy getting wasted.

[Supercell]

Absolutey. Will be off on a night out shortly. Have a happy New Year all !

Let us all be having to climb out of our bedroom windows to get outside to enjoy the massive record depths of snow.

[andy_leics22]

Looks like something interesting is developing in the Wash.

Seems some of the E midlands members have believed the BBC instead of reading my posts this morning. Either that or their busy getting wasted.

Shame it wll head down towards Northants and miss Leicester

[TEITS]

Shame it wll head down towards Northants and miss Leicester

Im not sure yet mate as we seem to have a ENE,ly rather than a NE,ly.

Still on a positive note convection is occuring and you never know how this will develop during this evening/overnight.

[andy_leics22]

Im not sure yet mate as we seem to have a ENE,ly rather than a NE,ly.

Still on a positive note convection is occuring and you never know how this will develop during this evening/overnight.

True

I just want to apologise to everyone in here for my rattyness the past month or so, I have had a bad year to be honest and the past month has been the hardest of my entire life so i'm sorry that sometimes I get irratable and basically talk nonsense lol.

[NorthantsSnow]

Shame it wll head down towards Northants and miss Leicester

Doubt it mate. Studying the wind direction carefully and the track of the showers so far I can't see these getting much further west than Peterborough. Still, a good call by Dave this morning.

Having said that, the latest Accuweather forecast does indicate possible snow flurries tonight/tomorrow (Northants):

Thursday Night, Dec 31

Most Cloudy w/ Flurries

A passing flurry this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy and cold. Winds from the N at 20 km/h.

Realfeel®: -9 °C

Low: -2 °C

Friday, Jan 1

Partly Sunny w/ Flurries

Sunshine mixing with clouds and chilly; a couple of flurries in the afternoon. Winds from the NNW at 19 km/h.

[butler_son]

True

I just want to apologise to everyone in here for my rattyness the past month or so, I have had a bad year to be honest and the past month has been the hardest of my entire life so i'm sorry that sometimes I get irratable and basically talk nonsense lol.

Andy - it's been a pleasure having you with us! Don't beat yourself up! You're a good lad really (I'm sure)... I've not had the best year either, in fact I'm quite glad to see the back of it, but I'm gonna keep being Mr Positive!

Have a great night tonight and New Year!

Oh, it's not snowing in Nottingham. Though I'm gonna have a nice 20 min walk (at least) in the cold to get to this party I'm off to!

[cyclonic happiness]

currantly 6'c here (in my bedroom) and just below -1'c outside

[andy_leics22]

Andy - it's been a pleasure having you with us! Don't beat yourself up! You're a good lad really (I'm sure)... I've not had the best year either, in fact I'm quite glad to see the back of it, but I'm gonna keep being Mr Positive!

Have a great night tonight and New Year!

Oh, it's not snowing in Nottingham. Though I'm gonna have a nice 20 min walk (at least) in the cold to get to this party I'm off to!

Cheers mate I appreciate the kind words

Happy New Year everyone, hope you all have a good one.