Gfs / Ecm / Nogaps/ Ukmo

[lorenzo]

Am a newbie on here and am quickly deciphering the model technical discussion threads with limited expertise.

Would really like someone to explain in their experience the validity of the different charts and their accuracy, or do folks have favourite.

If someone could also breakdown the acronyms that would solve another puzzle.

If this poll misses another choice Mods pls edit it, ty.

Thanks to BF for splitting my brain re Madden Julian Oscillation and JH for the links on the currently topical Polar Lows

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[Alex95]

Personally I find the ECM the most reliable, though the GFS and the METO are also reliable. THe models can take in turns to be the most reliable, as sometimes a model can have a 'wobble' where it shows a certain scenario for a few runs which disagrees with previous runs / other models before reverting back to a more plausible scenario again. I never use NOGAPS as it is a lesser model in my opinion.

Another model which you may want to include is GEM, it is quite a decent model.

[Ben_Cambs]

Personally I find the ECM the most reliable, though the GFS and the METO are also reliable. THe models can take in turns to be the most reliable, as sometimes a model can have a 'wobble' where it shows a certain scenario for a few runs which disagrees with previous runs / other models before reverting back to a more plausible scenario again. I never use NOGAPS as it is a lesser model in my opinion.

Another model which you may want to include is GEM, it is quite a decent model.

Same, ECM GFS and METO are the biggest models. ECM is the most reliable. GEM, NOGAPS and the other model JMA are lesser models. The big 3 models tend to disagree with eachother up to a certain time range. So I would use any of the big 3 models

UKMO, stands for "United Kingdom Meteorological Office"

ECM stands for "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"

GFS stands for "Global Forecast System"

NOGAPS stands for Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System" (US Navy)

GEM stands for "Global Environmental Multiscale"

JMA stands for "Japan Meteorological Agency"

Hope that helps

[lorenzo]

Thanks Alza & Snowman - cleared up some niggling questions for me, thanks in advance to all who reply.

[johnholmes]

unable to mark any as its not an easy thing to do.

as to abbreviations and acronyms, try the Net Wx Guides area/learners area I've put most of those I've come across in there and I regularly ask for all to remember that what seems common to oneself is not necessarily so for others-so please explain them if you use them.

[The PIT]

GFS does four runs and each run has different reliability. The most reliable is the 12 oz which comes close to the ECM. Although this does vary over the months and sometimes the GFS outdoes the ecm as the UKMO at times.