North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[Chrissy]

Hi everbody, -8c here at the moment, and we still have snow cover here since 17th December.Amazing cold spell.

How long can this go on for?

[HotCuppa]

where is the -10 air, that comes later heres some 850's through today, slightly warm sector at -6 on the coast south of cumbria as front moves south

James your showing conditions that are later today as opposed to what they where last night. Your reliance on the GFS is astounding lol

Temp here won't make -10, started to rise somewhat and from what I can see there isn't anywhere in the NW that quite made it to that number. Some where close 9.4C rossendale, -8C Preston, -8 Blackburn, -8 Altrincham, -8 Wilmslow.

Currently -7.3C for me, could be around -3, -4 in the next hour.

Place Called Rising Bridge Rossendale as started to warm up -8.6C from a low of

-9.2 °C with an astounding dp of 4.7 °C

Edited January 4, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The latest forecasts have upgraded the precipitation for our region! The UKMO and GFS pick up some wintry showers from 6pm onwards. These are ahead of the weather front which is expected in the early hours of tomorrow. The ECM precipitation forecast has upgraded the intensity of the front too!

Of course, there is alsways a risk for coastal areas in particular seeing a wintry mix rather than snow, but for areas further inland things are looking quite good at the moment!

Karyo

Its posible although the models have decided to bring a pretty big mild sector in again this morning.Going to be a close call for manchester area i think karyo.We need the frontal stuff to START as snow as the cold air is following the front.Dont panic if dew/temps rise quite sharpky through the night,i think its probably a good thing its coming in overnight as it would probably be rain in the daytime,going to be borderline anyway.

[SP1986]

Tropical old morning here, -2.8C after a minimum at midnight of -4.2C. Iy stayed above -3C from 3am onwards, now thats what I canll a microclimate! (which I guess is the interesting thing this spell throws up (temp defferences)

[HotCuppa]

Its posible although the models have decided to bring a pretty big mild sector in again this morning.Going to be a close call for manchester area i think karyo.We need the frontal stuff to START as snow as the cold air is following the front.Dont panic if dew/temps rise quite sharpky through the night,i think its probably a good thing its coming in overnight as it would probably be rain in the daytime,going to be borderline anyway.

Theres always winter hill lol

Monday Night through Thursday night

Chance of Snow 20%, max temp 0C min -3C until Thursday +2C

[cheshire snow]

All eyes on the next run then lets hope that warm sector dissapears

why oh why do we always get a warm sector just when everything is falling in place its begining to get a tad anoying LOL

HC whats your take on tonight?

C.S

[Liam J]

im still hopefull of wintry weather as the mild sector stays mainly out to the west, even then its -6 upper not 'mild' in the true sense but may still make some people upset,

-5.6c here and yet its does not look to hard the frost, must be the very low DP's

shap, cumbria -11.1 @ 2am 1200ft elevation

[HotCuppa]

All eyes on the next run then lets hope that warm sector dissapears

why oh why do we always get a warm sector just when everything is falling in place its begining to get a tad anoying LOL

HC whats your take on tonight?

C.S

Its going to be rather interesting to say the least. The models can't seem to make their mind up which sadly is nothing new imo this winter. I'll need to check the charts for today. But from slightly older materal it's still looking good for the west coast for snow come tuesday night..the occ is now almost positioned on holyhead which is a little bit better than it was yesterday morning.

I'll get back to you.

[whitewitch]

My word it's cold here this morning, currently -11.5°C :cold:

thanks for that james. i don't have to start the car to look at the temp now. my sons school is closed today, so more winter fun. however, buses are still running to huddersfield (which amazes me) which means my daughter has had to go to college

[Weather-history]

The Met Office forecast for our region doesn't even mention rain, its sleet and snow showers with a few cms especially over the hills.

Today:

A cold start with a hard overnight frost. The morning will then be dry with some good sunny spells, but sleet and snow showers are expected later in the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing. Maximum temperature 0 °C.

Tonight:

Further sleet and snow showers are expected this evening and overnight giving a covering of a few centimetres, especially on high ground. Minimum temperature -4 °C.

Tuesday:

Sleet and snow showers will gradually clear during the morning to allow some sunshine, but more wintry showers are expected later. Maximum temperature 0 °C.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Osbourne One-Nil]

shap, cumbria -11.1 @ 2am 1200ft elevation

Ha - positively tropical. The frost hollow which is Great Asby is currently reading -12.0C after a low of -12.2C.

[martinj2]

Incredible temp differences -much lower in West than east according to Met Observations.

Prestwick at 0800 is showing -6.1c and Rosehearty (NE coast of Scotland) is showing +4.9C, a difference of +11 degrees!

[HotCuppa]

Having checked the models C.S I have to say there is a bit of a risk tonght for coastal areas though I doubt it will be much, taking into account everything I can see right now, it will be probably sleety mix right on the coast, while around 3+ miles inland that sleet turns to snow. Temps are going to make all the difference here. I am thinking probably hill snow for northern areas, but those in and around Liverpool including my area and some extreme eastern parts of cheshire could have a chance of snow this evening. Fax is showing occ front to our sw over holyhead by Tuesday which is what we are looking for, anything east of it and with the current setup in place its still snow imo. Because of it's placement we could be looking at the coasts getting a sprinkling from the event, but this is over Tuesday night into wednesday morning. The only major ointment in the works is a possible warm front developing and enveloping the whole region before then.

There is still time for a few updates before the event, but I am not convinced at this stage just yet we'll even see the warm front, I think it will stay out towards Ireland rather than western england...i should think time will tell.

I won't use marginal just yet because I do not feel it actually is, lets see what the next fax chart throws up..everything else is in place including upper air -6, -7, isotherm, occ off to the sw which on eastern flank should be bringing snow. We are looking for the occ and the irish sea to being us some heavy convective snow...but keep an eye out for a warm front developing..like I said though I think that will be more or less over ireland than us at this stage.

I am probably going to be entirely wrong.

Edited January 4, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Liam J]

we may get some snow out of this cold front, as models want to intensify it as it moves south towards us

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I thought we were always due snow out of that front?

[cheshire snow]

Having checked the models C.S I have to say there is a bit of a risk tonght for coastal areas though I doubt it will be much, taking into account everything I can see right now, it will be probably sleety mix right on the coast, while around 3+ miles inland that sleet turns to snow. Temps are going to make all the difference here. I am thinking probably hill snow for northern areas, but those in and around Liverpool including my area and some extreme eastern parts of cheshire could have a chance of snow this evening. Fax is showing occ front to our sw over holyhead by Tuesday which is what we are looking for, anything east of it and with the current setup in place its still snow imo. Because of it's placement we could be looking at the coasts getting a sprinkling from the event, but this is over Tuesday night into wednesday morning. The only major ointment in the works is a possible warm front developing and enveloping the whole region before then.

There is still time for a few updates before the event, but I am not convinced at this stage just yet we'll even see the warm front, I think it will stay out towards Ireland rather than western england...i should think time will tell.

I won't use marginal just yet because I do not feel it actually is, lets see what the next fax chart throws up..everything else is in place including upper air -6, -7, isotherm, occ off to the sw which on eastern flank should be bringing snow. We are looking for the occ and the irish sea to being us some heavy convective snow...but keep an eye out for a warm front developing..like I said though I think that will be more or less over ireland than us at this stage.

I am probably going to be entirely wrong.

Thanks HC

still

[Osbourne One-Nil]

James your showing conditions that are later today as opposed to what they where last night. Your reliance on the GFS is astounding lol

Temp here won't make -10, started to rise somewhat and from what I can see there isn't anywhere in the NW that quite made it to that number.

www.greatasby.co.uk Edited January 4, 2010 by Osbourne One-Nil

[cheshire cat]

Morining all.

-6.0C here in Hale, coldest on the drive to work was -6.5C

Great crisp winters day, wish I was out on the tops wrapped up with the camera

Still think we'll get something over the next few days, not really had a delve through the models in depth, but countryfile looked as good as you can get from a West point of view in this set up.

[wysiwyg]

Morning All

I wouldn't get too upset just at the moment with regards to this "warm sector" if you look at the charts posted earlier by James, the GFS is showing the warmer air as -5 to -6 850hpa nudging into -8 to -9 850hpa. Intensity of any precipitation will also help to tip the balance toward snow as will the fact that the main front hits the NW well after the surface temperatures will have started falling again. Anything that does fall that is not rain will probably settle.

Fax chart for 00Z Tuesday still showing the occlusion point well out in the Irish Sea - so all looking good at the moment IMO.

[HotCuppa]

I think as been said we'll have to see just how much the models intensify this cold front..definitely an interesting day ahead

Current Temp -6.6C rising slowly

DP as dropped to -8.1C again

Windchill -10C

South Liverpool

Current Temp -5.2C

DP -6C

Windchill -9C

EDIT: South Liverpool now -6.1C temp still dropping

Hardly any change in temps for south liverpool in the past hour if anything its dropped by -0.2C

Just checked temps around the country and its interesting to see both nw and ne scotland are tropical compared to the rest of england and some parts of wales lol Mostly all 0's and over the western isles +5C even Isle of Man is reporting +4C on its nw coast

Port Patrick on the coast +2C and just a little inland its reading West Freugh -7C around only 5/6miles ish (sw scotland)

Carlisle Airport recording -11C

Edited January 4, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

gfs 06z looks very good for tonight guys!

[wysiwyg]

Just checked temps around the country and its interesting to see both nw and ne scotland are tropical compared to the rest of england and some parts of wales lol Mostly all 0's and over the western isles +5C even Isle of Man is reporting +4C on its nw coast

Hehe - if you think the Irish Sea is a nuisance - just look at how much the North Sea is modifying those N Scotland ground temps!

As soon as you move away from the coast I would imagine that most of the sheltered glens in the highlands are seeing negative double figure temperatures. I shudder to think what the temperature is like at 3000 feet plus with a further temperature drop of approximatel 2oC per thousand feet!!

[HotCuppa]

Hehe - if you think the Irish Sea is a nuisance - just look at how much the North Sea is modifying those N Scotland ground temps!

As soon as you move away from the coast I would imagine that most of the sheltered glens in the highlands are seeing negative double figure temperatures. I shudder to think what the temperature is like at 3000 feet plus with a further temperature drop of approximatel 2oC per thousand feet!!

Funny thing is wysiwyg, that temps south of the region are still dropping

[Liam J]

Funny thing is wysiwyg, that temps south of the region are still dropping

carlisle -11c @ 9.20am (9am it was -9) !!!

st bee's head -3c

walney island -4c

shap -10c

my location -5.4c

Edited January 4, 2010 by james12

[HotCuppa]

carlisle -11c @ 9.20am (9am it was -9) !!!

st bee's head -3c

walney island -4c

shap -10c

my location -5.4c

These temps are just getting more amazing as the morning wears on lol

My current temp is -7.1, max low last night hit -9C, around 830am ish to 845 temp rose to -6.6C, now as you can see they have dropped a little again

Edited January 4, 2010 by HotCuppa