General Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

Is it such a sin if Western and Northern folk express their opinion that it remains rather dry for the forseeable?

For Ireland, Scotland and Wales it looks dry after Tuesday evening for the rest of the week

Far from ideal for us, FACT!

I thought a strong east to ne flow would be good for parts of Ireland with some convection off the Irish Sea. I never said it was a sin , its just that the thread has at times resembled one long moan fest with sniping from certain quarters, i was criticized the other day for saying there would be some major snow for the se by some members from the se who were under some misguided notion that it was going to remain dry there and now i'm criticized for stating an unfortunate truth regarding how these types of synoptics invariably favour certain areas!

Sorry maybe i should just hopecast alot of snow for areas that aren't favoured and then get slagged off when it doesn't occur! i'm only commenting on what i see and previous experience. I do love these posts that state dry for the foreseeable etc, which given theres at least 10 more days of cold weather make me laugh, as i said sustained cold benefits more people and surprises often occur, let me refresh your memory all that snowfall that northern Ireland got the other winter from the Irish Sea that was not forecast during an easterly!

Anyway good luck with the snow and please cheer up!

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden

Excellent ENS. Notice you can also select different regions in the Netherlands.

[PB22]

http://www.weerplaza...im.asp?r=midden

Excellent ENS. Notice you can also select different regions in the Netherlands.

Very impressive, only a small minority go milder, and I use that termly loosely as only 3 or 4 runs get above 5C throughout the entire run for the Middle region.

Will be interesting to see what the London ensembles show later on.

[peterf]

lets see what the next run has in store for us all.

[Paul]

Since 80% of the posts in here in the last 2 hours has been off topic or just childish bickering is there any reason why we should bother to allow any of those involved to post on here any longer?

I'm not looking for an answer to that, but seriously folks, either show the other members some respect or it's going to come to that - which I suspect none of us want to happen.

And those who used the thread to moan about the off topic posts - please use the report button otherwise it all starts to get even more messy and you become just as much a part of the problem.

Thanks

Paul

[MP-R]

This is a long way off, next Saturday, but with isobars that close together then surely a good deal of windchill to be had, something that has so far been rather absent - an element that was certainly evident in the likes of 81/82 and 91.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1441.html

Even more a long way off but could some experienced posters on here clear up what sort of conditions would be had if these synoptics came off, an easterly originating in from the Med:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn2161.html

Regards.

[TEITS]

I know many are keen to find out how much snow might fall but to be honest you really are wasting your time at the moment and much of this week will come down to nowcasting.

I will add though that this isn't a case of snow showers only affecting coastal regions. Using my experiences of the 1980's E,lys and what you used to find is clusters of snow showers developing bringing periods of snow rather than scattered showers. Now because the flow is going to be NNE/NE,ly this will bring these bands of snow inland.

ECM ensembles continue to be amazing. Very few runs above 0C even at +240.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

My advice is chill out, relax and just enjoy what is the most fantastic model output I have ever seen.

[Bolton67]

I know many are keen to find out how much snow might fall but to be honest you really are wasting your time at the moment and much of this week will come down to nowcasting.

I will add though that this isn't a case of snow showers only affecting coastal regions. Using my experiences of the 1980's E,lys and what you used to find is clusters of snow showers developing bringing periods of snow rather than scattered showers. Now because the flow is going to be NNE/NE,ly this will bring these bands of snow inland.

ECM ensembles continue to be amazing. Very few runs above 0C even at +240.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...E_06260_NWT.png

My advice is chill out, relax and just enjoy what is the most fantastic model output I have ever seen.

Tetis, coming from your best next door neighbours that front coming down From the North on tuesday (which) is very slow moving over our Region i looked at the Precip charts for that time, and was suprised that it could quite easy cause some concern.

any thoughts?

[PB22]

Even more a long way off but could some experienced posters on here clear up what sort of conditions would be had if these synoptics came off, an easterly originating in from the Med:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn2161.html

Regards.

It would be mostly dry but still very cold with that surface flow off the continent. Frosts would still be harsh and days would barely be above freezing - here's the conditions progged over the continent

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21610.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.html

[nick sussex]

Before the gfs 18hrs run a few words regarding the upstream pattern over in the USA and Canada. A quote from this evenings NOAA discussions.

OTHERWISE THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN PERSISTS FOR THE FORSEEABLE

FUTURE OF A STRONG NEG AO/NAO WITH A POSITIVE MID LEVEL HT ANOMALY

IN THE N ATLC AND ANOTHER STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED

NEAR 55N 115W WITH THE PNA PATTERN OVER NOAM.

Basically the amplified upstream pattern mean prospects for continuing cold are good, any lows in the Atlantic are liable to hit a brick wall with the blocking near Iceland, this will probably result in shortwaves heading se' wards towards Biscay, perhaps skirting with the far sw.

Whilst the upstream pattern remains the same then no reason to expect the cold to go anytime soon.

[Richie V]

I thought a strong east to ne flow would be good for parts of Ireland with some convection off the Irish Sea. I never said it was a sin , its just that the thread has at times resembled one long moan fest with sniping from certain quarters, i was criticized the other day for saying there would be some major snow for the se by some members from the se who were under some misguided notion that it was going to remain dry there and now i'm criticized for stating an unfortunate truth regarding how these types of synoptics invariably favour certain areas!

Sorry maybe i should just hopecast alot of snow for areas that aren't favoured and then get slagged off when it doesn't occur! i'm only commenting on what i see and previous experience. I do love these posts that state dry for the foreseeable etc, which given theres at least 10 more days of cold weather make me laugh, as i said sustained cold benefits more people and surprises often occur, let me refresh your memory all that snowfall that northern Ireland got the other winter from the Irish Sea that was not forecast during an easterly!

Anyway good luck with the snow and please cheer up!

Yep cheer up indeed, My folks over in the canada camp are scrapping over a few probable inches too,

http://www.skyeyeweather.com/Weather_Forum/index.php?/topic/3713-january-2010-weather-discussions/page__st__320

Only difference is though, when they talk of temps in the -10s they mean degrees F.

[smich]

Hi everyone,

Just got back from skiing in Cervinia, Italy. On Saturday we had -20c with a -35c windchill so coming back to the uk wasn't too much of a shock!

After a week's break, the charts still look fantastic. Another week of cold, becoming well embedded now, making things more interesting in terms of the surprise events that emerge in the "nowcast".

Great synoptics, nuff said.

smich

[bluearmy]

Even more a long way off but could some experienced posters on here clear up what sort of conditions would be had if these synoptics came off, an easterly originating in from the Med:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn2161.html

Regards.

would be very cold with a flow off a snow covered continent. however, we want to stay the 'right side' of th 552 dam line. given our warm sea location, this is quite important for prolonging the cold.

as you alluded to in your quesion though, quoting charts at T216 is purely educational rather than informative.

[Mondy]

The front sinking south may stall over mainland Scotland due to interaction with the mountains?

[cooling climate]

I know many are keen to find out how much snow might fall but to be honest you really are wasting your time at the moment and much of this week will come down to nowcasting.

I will add though that this isn't a case of snow showers only affecting coastal regions. Using my experiences of the 1980's E,lys and what you used to find is clusters of snow showers developing bringing periods of snow rather than scattered showers. Now because the flow is going to be NNE/NE,ly this will bring these bands of snow inland.

ECM ensembles continue to be amazing. Very few runs above 0C even at +240.

http://www.knmi.nl/e...E_06260_NWT.png

My advice is chill out, relax and just enjoy what is the most fantastic model output I have ever seen.

Yes agree with all of that, what a week to come and while the east and south look to receive the brunt of the snow

many, many other locations will as well but just not to the same extent.

This of course makes sense with the weather coming from a east of north direction just as the s/west copped it in the

infamous February 78 event.

It will be interesting to see if there is any support yet for the ECM t240+ synoptics with pressure rising again over

the northeast.

Windchill we almost definitely be a factor I think during the latter half of the week with maximum of around 0c we could

easily see windchill of -10 with disruptive drifting snow again across many areas.

[PB22]

Tonight's FAX charts:

T+96: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

T+120: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Stunning! Don't worry about the lack of trough activity indicated, its simply too early to predict that sort of thing.

[Matty M]

Nasty 18z downgrade for east Ireland

Shunts everything about 100 miles further east at around 48 hours, ??

Ridge pushed over, just tinge of easterly on north flow.

Disaster for here if this is a trend.

Better be wrong

[Serendipity]

Tonight's FAX charts:

T+96: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

T+120: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Stunning! Don't worry about the lack of trough activity indicated, its simply too early to predict that sort of thing.

Wednesday still looks good - the trough not gone...

[Matty M]

Macro changes on the 18z GFS tonight.

At T90 the ridge is 300 miles further east.

Anybody out there to comment on this?

...was my post just binned there?

[kold weather]

No where near as good as the 12z thats for sure on the 18z!!

Low pressure over Europe develops a little stronger and the high pressure doesn't develop as fast, net result is a weak nortrherly flow for Friday instead of the easterly flow...

No doubt though a syonptic outlier....

[Neilsouth]

Macro changes on the 18z GFS tonight.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn664.png

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-72.png?18

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn844.png

Still looks ok in south east , heavy snow showers on wednesday and thursday

[Optimus Prime]

Rather big changes for the easterly for Friday. Seems to be held back.

[PB22]

Some subtle changes, but the general theme is maintained:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1202.html

These details will be firmed up over the next few days, there's a lot to happen beforehand!

[snowking]

No where near as good as the 12z thats for sure on the 18z!!

Low pressure over Europe develops a little stronger and the high pressure doesn't develop as fast, net result is a weak nortrherly flow for Friday instead of the easterly flow...

No doubt though a syonptic outlier....

Yes you'd very much hope so

If we were to get a synoptic setup like this and end up with a flow like that it'll be fairly dissapointing to say the least.....you commented earlier the 12z showing the snowiest possible scenario....well this very much shows the flip side!

Definitely hoping the 18z has just thrown a wobbler, I guess we shall see i the morning

SK

[TEITS]

Macro changes on the 18z GFS tonight.

At T90 the ridge is 300 miles further east.

Anybody out there to comment on this?

...was my post just binned there?

Whilst its a downgrade for some locations its an upgrade for others. The 18Z suggests plenty of precip around Lincs,Wash,E Midlands.

For me personally im just delighted at the fax charts which at this range are the most reliable.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif