General Model Output Discussion

[Neilsouth]

The potential does look very good for snow for east and south east more so as the week progresses , kent looks to take the brunt of it.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/48-574.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/54-574.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/57-574.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/63-574.GIF?04-0

Then the 9th+

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles_gfs/run/120-574.GIF?04-0

Plus the fact that some kent areas have already had more than expected

[izi]

Just a quick question . . . Last night the bbc forecast had everythin pretty much for snow for tonights event , then this morning they are showing mainly rain , and talkin of ice from the overnight rain , sleet , and snow , then saying temps will stay below freezing today for most and goin down to -5 for many tonight, am i missong something ? I no its not just about the surface temp , but surely there cant be another warm sector in this bitter cold spell?? It doesnt add up , iv always known in general a front from north normaly means snow thats how its been growing up , now it seems different ?? Comments welcome. Thanks

there is a warm secotor, last time i looked it was mainly over ireland and west country.

[SteveB]

Just a quick question . . . Last night the BBC forecast had everythin pretty much for snow for tonights event , then this morning they are showing mainly rain , and talkin of ice from the overnight rain , sleet , and snow , then saying temps will stay below freezing today for most and goin down to -5 for many tonight, am i missong something ? I no its not just about the surface temp , but surely there cant be another warm sector in this bitter cold spell?? It doesnt add up , iv always known in general a front from north normaly means snow thats how its been growing up , now it seems different ?? Comments welcome. Thanks

I know it's bizarre isn't it. If it does rain then with Temps of -2-4c it will freeze on contact making for terrible conditions.

[Neilsouth]

there is a warm secotor, last time i looked it was mainly over ireland and west country.

Correct

As the guy said on sunday " More likely to be sleety the further west and south you are "

[Frosty.]

Very cold 00z output again, nobody knows where the high will move in FI, the gfs & ecm have very different ideas but the outlook is remaining cold, probably a minimum of 10 more days and probably longer than that so there would only be a slow thaw at worst, the areas further south and east have a better chance of having wintry showers continuing and the next 4-5 days look very wintry with a spell of rain/sleet and snow pushing south followed by snow showers and severe frosts with heavy, persistent snow in some central and eastern areas between wed-fri. The gfs 00z in FI is classic stuff with the high eventually pushing into scandinavia and a bitter E'ly across all areas with snow flurries, not much of a downgrade there then!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

there is a warm secotor, last time i looked it was mainly over ireland and west country.

But it boggles me , why yet again would there be a warm sector ?? We'r in arctic conditions thats what the bbc tell me every day . I cant do anythin about it , but very fustrating .

[Nick F]

Just a quick question . . . Last night the bbc forecast had everythin pretty much for snow for tonights event , then this morning they are showing mainly rain , and talkin of ice from the overnight rain , sleet , and snow , then saying temps will stay below freezing today for most and goin down to -5 for many tonight, am i missong something ? I no its not just about the surface temp , but surely there cant be another warm sector in this bitter cold spell?? It doesnt add up , iv always known in general a front from north normaly means snow thats how its been growing up , now it seems different ?? Comments welcome. Thanks

Not really the place to discuss bbc forecasts Shaun, but the front will bring snow inland and rain/sleet near coasts of the west in particular.

On to the models, I wouldn't concentrate on 'downgrades' compared to the 18z in terms of snowfall next weekend ... it really is too far off to forecast anything and get hung up over it if it's not looking so great this morning!

As Steve says, plenty of snow opportunities over the next few days in the more reliable time frame.

Still no sign from the 00z output of a breakdown of the cold, so I hope we don't have another day of bickering because of 'downgrades' for snow at t+144!

[Neilsouth]

Why not have two threads

1) Upto 144

2) 166+ FI

[Nick F]

But it boggles me , why yet again would there be a warm sector ?? We'r in arctic conditions thats what the bbc tell me every day . I cant do anythin about it , but very fustrating .

Warm sectors aren't unusual in northerly flows with arctic air, a 'warm sector' with less cold air with wet-bulb temps above +2C being dragged in ahead of the cold front from W of Iceland will make it marginal, apart from high ground, for Ireland and the far west when the precipitation arrives later today ahead of the cold northerly plunge. The warm sector doesn't look to affect mainland UK too much though, so snow most likely inland.

[Methuselah]

Looks like the best synoptics for many a year, to me - maybe another 15 days of cold (and potentially snowy) weather...So, let's cut-out the bickering and get on with enjoying this spell of weather, while it lasts?

This thread is for (as it says on the tin) discussing the various model outputs. It's not for moaning about IMBY snow-totals or lack thereof: that's what the Model Mood and Regional Cold Spell threads are for...Please use them!

Thanks.

[johnholmes]

I make no apology for posting this again

this is going to be the coldest spell some on here will ever have known-for the oldest amongst us then it MIGHT yet rank in the top 10 we have known!

the above comment refers to mean temperatures for a week.

The GFS-Extra at 00z shows this area coming out with a mean down to almost -1C and with precip on most days, most of it is forecast to miss my area but it does have 4mm showing in two batches for tomorrow.

Looking at the model and I would imagine, other than a few far western districts then most parts, probably well over 70% of the country will get a a snow cover, or for quite a lot, additional snow cover over the next 1-4 days. What happens over the weekend in terms of precip is way too far ahead to make any sensible prediction.

[East Herts Snow]

Surprised at the downbeat comments this morning and thought the charts would look horrendous........

After viewing the ECM & GFS charts all I can see is the cold has if anything been prolonged. The Atlantic lows just keep undercutting the scandi/UK high, reloading the cold and snow potential all the way out to +240 and beyond. GFS has the cold extending thoughout its whole run. Any one of these lows with the right track would produce heavy snowfall for many areas.

Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.....this is how the great winters of old would have looked.

^^Just seen John's post above and agree totally^^

[weather eater]

Typical model stuff this morning, the GFS which has been bullish about setting up an easterly now appears to be wavering some what, in contrast the ECM and the GEM seem quite keen, the UKMO somewhere in between. Bets anyone.

[Tom D]

The goods news for me (and much of eastern England) is that the GEM and ECM are finally onto the high being to the north of the UK just over northern Scotland, allowing an easterly flow for a couple of days over England. The GEM was adamant that the high would build directly over the UK (which is good for no-one in terms of more snowfall).

Good agreement among the main models, apart from the GFS which has decided to put everything further south. I expect the 06z will bring back the previous set up and fall into place with the ECM, UKMO and now the GEM.

Into FI once again are signs of a reload as the high over Scandinavia builds and another high over Greenland too, forcing lows south of the UK.

[TEITS]

At the moment im only concentrating on tomorrow.

Some excellent charts at +48.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/04/basis00/ukuk/prty/10010600

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs513.gif

Looking very good especially for my location into parts of E midlands/E Anglia.

The general theme at the moment is once the front clears, snow showers start to develop and spread to some inland parts.

[mushymanrob]

I make no apology for posting this again

this is going to be the coldest spell some on here will ever have known-for the oldest amongst us then it MIGHT yet rank in the top 10 we have known!

im sure it will easily rank amongst the top ten... i cant remember 47, i can 63, they must be the top two? after that i guess 78-9 was the longest cold spell, imho this one could challenge that, assuming it started a week before crimbo.

i dont get it, carole kirkwood was on bbc this morning telling us that a band of rain sleet and snow is crossing the country in the next 24 hours....the graphics clearly show blue ie RAIN but the temps were -3c -4c, how can this happen? surely itll be snow?

[Paul_1978]

Looks fantastic. Is this from the 18z?

If you look at the bottom right of the charts, it says "Sun 18", therfore it's Sunday's 18z. Thus 00, 06, 12 etc along with the day of the week shows the run.

Hope this helps, Paul

[MP-R]

Hmmm, this looks interesting. I keep telling myself not to look more than three days ahead but the little trough off southwest England could deliver something could it. Won't be too much mobility and warmer air trapped in a smaller feature like this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

Back to the here and now however, looks like plenty to be watching over the coming days and perhaps even some dandruff surprises for the West Country too . All eyes on tomorrow's southward cold front.

[yamkin]

At the moment im only concentrating on tomorrow.

Some excellent charts at +48.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/04/basis00/ukuk/prty/10010600

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs513.gif

Looking very good especially for my location into parts of E midlands/E Anglia.

The general theme at the moment is once the front clears, snow showers start to develop and spread to some inland parts.

Now this is what I call cold cold cold Just look at the sub zero members out to 10th Jan http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[cooling climate]

Good morning,

These are great winter charts, whether it snows or not. Charts well into the future that produce a prolonged cold spell not seen for many decades !!!

Some of the posts make me upset on here , so going to chill and not read anymore.

Enjoy the cold and snow for some over there, a proper winter is to be had for all.

C

Very much agree with what you say. I think it may be due to some of the younger members but not exclusively who

are gauging this 10+ days ahead on snow and nothing else IE, no snow = toys out of pram and rubbish weather.

What we have coming to the UK is unique in the fact that we have not seen the likes for at least 25 years for a

country wide prolonged freeze.

January 1985 was the last time we had a period of cold of this duration occurring in January. The synoptics are

fantastic, and even more so after such a long mild stretch of winters. Many that are complaining will see snow but not

perhaps as much as in other areas that is the way of the weather.

During past memorable cold spells we did not have continuous snow and it will not happen during this cold spell.

As some more experienced posters on here have said the pattern is continually evolving and the end of the week is

not set in stone yet, as there may be more upgrades or downgrades in terms of the easterly airflow and snow

potential, but this should not be a distraction from the fact that the UK is looking at least 10 days in the freezer

with temperatures struggling to hit freezing by day and plummeting at night.

Enjoy.

[snowray]

Typical model stuff this morning, the GFS which has been bullish about setting up an easterly now appears to be wavering some what, in contrast the ECM and the GEM seem quite keen, the UKMO somewhere in between. Bets anyone.

Yes GFS has started to do its own thing from the end of this week, no severe Easterly but it's certainly prolonging the cold and snow potential for most places right to the end of the the run on the 06z.

ALL other models, ECM, UKMO, GEM etc, etc, are on the other hand very similar and are going for the Beasterly in all its glory, so GFS very much at odds.

Have to agree that this will be a memorable period, glorious charts, lots of surprises in store for most, just lets be a bit more patient aye.

I'm still in North West Italy just North of Tuscany and its snowing very nicely this morning, not back til this Sunday, if the airports are open that is , must say am a bit peeved that I'll be missing all the fun and games over there, although last night they were going for upto a meter of snow around here by next monday so I'll bank my snow wherever I can get it.

Snowray

[snowking]

Just an observation

I realise that this was always going to hit eastern-most parts hardest, but in more recent runs the models have trended more towards the flow being nearer north of east for far longer than previously

Now I know the GFS has done this time after time, but now seeing it on the FAX as well starts to worry me a little to be honest that this becomes (other than the front on tuesday) an exclusively eastern event where showers stay much closer to eastern coasts

I'd love to be wrong and if anybody would like to prove me so then of course feel free, but its just a subtle change in the last few runs

SK

[yamkin]

Typical model stuff this morning, the GFS which has been bullish about setting up an easterly now appears to be wavering some what, in contrast the ECM and the GEM seem quite keen, the UKMO somewhere in between. Bets anyone.

UKMO is up there with GFS & ECM at 144h - see charts below. GFS 06Z is just rolling out, but 00Z 384h FI is showing a trend to the colder feed. Very interesting times ahead IMO.

[TEITS]

The GFS continues to show snow showers developing in two areas during Tues night. Around the Wash into Norfolk and also for NE England. The area around the wash extends into the Midlands. The GFS is very consistent with this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs453.gif

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just an observation

I realise that this was always going to hit eastern-most parts hardest, but in more recent runs the models have trended more towards the flow being nearer north of east for far longer than previously

Now I know the GFS has done this time after time, but now seeing it on the FAX as well starts to worry me a little to be honest that this becomes (other than the front on tuesday) an exclusively eastern event where showers stay much closer to eastern coasts

I'd love to be wrong and if anybody would like to prove me so then of course feel free, but its just a subtle change in the last few runs

SK

I would agree with that - it does look like less of a wind east of north east and rather more of a northerly. There is no doubt that most areas will see snow at some or other time this week, but I think that the heaviest convective snow will remain for eastern and northern areas. A north easterly is still shown by the euro models especially for the weekend. It looks to me as if the 'armeggedon' blizzard may well remain on the continent. Tbh, I hope it does. A decent enough snow cover will do me fine (that can be sustained with low enough temps). An OTT event with disruption and chaos I would much rather do without tbh - especially with livestock to look after who depend upon a power supply!