North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

[Geordiesnow]

Oh MCT youve done it now

Don't get your hopes up if i was you, it only shows a small risk of showers catching the east coast, and tbh i would not be all that fussed if they hit or miss us.

Regarding next week, although i never should take the GFS PPN charts for granted but one thing i have noticed that the PPN is never the same consistancy everywhere. This suggests to me quite a messy easterly in terms of weather fronts and trough. The 18Z shows what can go wrong for a while in that a nice train of heavy showers heading SSW's where we supposely get lighter ones during Wednesday evening, look at the 72 hour charts and you know what i mean.

I feel, this easterly will either be a joyful occasion or a frustrating one at times. Also remember when we had all them snow showers on Friday, NE Scotland recieved very few whilst when looking at the radar, you could see the train of showers all heading for us and missing them.

[snowmackem]

Oh dear, has the downgrade started for us ?

Really disappointed, although in reality I know that things will swing back and forth but I am a little confused. All the charts on here and all the chatter would indicate that we are in for a snowy week, even if you disregard the Tuesday/Wednesdat event ( trough falling South across us, even that seems to have been downgraded wrt snow). However I have just seen Dan Corbett on BBC 1 Look North. He indicated a few showers overnight (doesn't seem to be any sign of them on the radar), followed by dry days on Mon, Tues, Wed. Only for Thursday did he mention snow and didn't seem very enthused by that potential either.

Don't get me wrong, I am a great snow lover and always look for the positives and love a good ramp. However, if I had been away on Mars for a month and just arrived home and put the telly on to see that forecast, I wouldn't be in the least bit excited by it. What a let down !!

Karl

Edited January 3, 2010 by snowmackem

[damianslaw]

This front is still nagging me because the BBC graphics are confusing, it would seem the heavier snow from Scotland merges with the showers from Northern Ireland and give Cumbria a more prolonged spell of snow.

It would be nice if it shows a nice smooth cold front with snow all along it and just one big blob in Cumbria but maybe that what will actually happen? Although with events like these, it really a case of radar watching and not those BBC forecasts.

I suppose we have got a little headstart regarding snow covering over the others mind.

The BBC shouldn't be trusted with there snow graphics. They seem to change them on an hourly basis throwing in blobs of the white stuff in different places all the time and showing white peppering in different locations in the space of an hour, often its there one minute and gone the next.

Still it is a strange graphic with a big white blob over Cumbria tomorrow night and nothing much to the NE. The only reason I can see why this is, is due to the fact that they are expecting the front to have more energy on its western flank aided by a change to a more NW flow, topography plays its part when this happens and the seas to the west of Scotland, both will help to enhance the amount of precipitation. Will be interesting to see whether they are showing the same graphics in the morning.

Still the NE looks like recieving some hefty snow showers through Tuesday and especially Wednesday, with some hopefully transferring over to our neck of the woods.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

New alert just out from Netweather...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerts;reg=3;sess=;

Nick F saying 5-10cm from this front, which I'd happily take, then hopefully plenty of showers packing in during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wind direction looks good to bring them well inland and not just down the coast.

[Geordiesnow]

Don't worry about that Karl, what that forecast shows was for Newcastle on the 5 day forecasts, yet if you look at the Sunderland one, it shows light snow showers for Tues, Wed and Thurs.

Actually the BBC forecasts are up and down like an yo-yo during these cold spells and they do very much confuse you. Latest BBC forecast on News 24 don't actually show the snow graphic reaching us on Tuesday, that can't be right surely??

One thing i am not keen on about this easterly is that it's not all one flow, which is why the PPN charts are not as good on this run i think. I mean, if we go past the main flow via the low, the convective activity decreases rapidly despite still being in an easterly flow.

I prefer if we had low pressure well to the south and a Scandi high to the north and giving us a nice easterly that is consistant. I'm pretty sure if this was the case, then the PPN amounts all along the east coast will be consistent.

I probably have confused people now! Lets just wait and see what happens

[dave79]

Don't worry about that Karl, what that forecast shows was for Newcastle on the 5 day forecasts, yet if you look at the Sunderland one, it shows light snow showers for Tues, Wed and Thurs.

Actually the BBC forecasts are up and down like an yo-yo during these cold spells and they do very much confuse you. Latest BBC forecast on News 24 don't actually show the snow graphic reaching us on Tuesday, that can't be right surely??

One thing i am not keen on about this easterly is that it's not all one flow, which is why the PPN charts are not as good on this run i think. I mean, if we go past the main flow via the low, the convective activity decreases rapidly despite still being in an easterly flow.

I prefer if we had low pressure well to the south and a Scandi high to the north and giving us a nice easterly that is consistant. I'm pretty sure if this was the case, then the PPN amounts all along the east coast will be consistent.

I probably have confused people now! Lets just wait and see what happens

hi guys, I seen the forecast from Countryfile for the week ahead this evening, from Tuesday night onwards looks really good for us especially towards the back end of the week, every day had heavy snow from Tuesday onwards

[snowmackem]

Don't worry about that Karl, what that forecast shows was for Newcastle on the 5 day forecasts, yet if you look at the Sunderland one, it shows light snow showers for Tues, Wed and Thurs.

Actually the BBC forecasts are up and down like an yo-yo during these cold spells and they do very much confuse you. Latest BBC forecast on News 24 don't actually show the snow graphic reaching us on Tuesday, that can't be right surely??

One thing i am not keen on about this easterly is that it's not all one flow, which is why the PPN charts are not as good on this run i think. I mean, if we go past the main flow via the low, the convective activity decreases rapidly despite still being in an easterly flow.

I prefer if we had low pressure well to the south and a Scandi high to the north and giving us a nice easterly that is consistant. I'm pretty sure if this was the case, then the PPN amounts all along the east coast will be consistent.

I probably have confused people now! Lets just wait and see what happens

Thanks GS, I am sure your'e right, like most people on here I am enjoying the current weather, I remember '81/'82, '87 etc and have earlier memories (a bit more hazy) of '79? and others in the 70s. I was born in Sunderland in November '62 so did witness it but obviously can't remember. My mother tells me that when she hung my nappies on the line to dry, by the time she had hung the last one out, the first ones were frozen solid !! Apparently though that didn't matter as they kind of freeze dried very quickly ( presumably to do with low DPs and low humidity ?

I have been caught up in the current hype though and when you see televised forecasts, that are supposed to inform the general public, then it makes you think that all the background info you can gather from a site like this, from informed amateur experts, is just a waste of time and that the thought of extreme weather events is a lot more exciting than the reallity.Ha ha, or do the Meto know more and have advised the Beeb to keep quiet atm so as not to alarm the general public too soon in case they are wrong ? I suspect that may be the case to a certain extent and that things will be upgraded again tomorrow.

We live in hope.

For what it's worth, my own "analysis" is that the next few days will turn out like this for Tyne and Wear :

Mon : one or two light snow showers along the coastal fringe, maybe occasional one scraping along the Tyne Valley as far as Prudhoe.Cold, max 1 deg.

Mon night : Showers dying early on,a few bits of high cloud floating about. Min -5 generally, a few spots down to -8.

Tues : Dry start, lunchtime cloud build up, showers breaking out during the afternoon, all snow.Fairly light but steady precipitation, giving generally 2-4 cm, 4-6 in favoured locations.Max 0 deg.

Tue night : Showers continuing and maybe building for a while as convection increases following the front.Perhaps another 4 cm by morning. Min -5 deg.

Wed : Showers continuing, although decreasing in number, with less intensity. Max -1 deg.

Wed night. Dry, min -6

Thursday : Potentially a more snowy day, with a band of more persistant snow, perhaps giving accumulations of 5-10 cm. Max 0 deg.

After that, someone else can have a guess !!

Karl

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Just been looking at the GFS ensembles and noticed the 18z operational run is the driest of the lot for the front on Monday night/Tuesday morning. Not sure how much to read into that but I think there is every chance there will be more shown on the next runs.

BBC forecasts will be interesting tomorrow. Hopefully they'll add some more white over us.

[Geordiesnow]

What i don't get is that a cold front heading south is normally got some oomph behind it, this one seems to die of death pretty quickly.

The GFS PPN charts seem to have lots of PPN in the North Sea around Monday evening going into Tuesday(I assume that is the weather front), yet despite picking up a bit of a ne'ly, the front seems to die of death.

I posted earlier this morning that watching BBC forecasts will make you feel like pulling your hair out and it is certainly doing that(although not literally i assure you!).

As i say though, its not what those fancy graphics say or the GFS says, its what the radar says and at least we got a snow covering already so we got a headstart so to speak.

[dave79]

Thanks GS, I am sure your'e right, like most people on here I am enjoying the current weather, I remember '81/'82, '87 etc and have earlier memories (a bit more hazy) of '79? and others in the 70s. I was born in Sunderland in November '62 so did witness it but obviously can't remember. My mother tells me that when she hung my nappies on the line to dry, by the time she had hung the last one out, the first ones were frozen solid !! Apparently though that didn't matter as they kind of freeze dried very quickly ( presumably to do with low DPs and low humidity ?

I have been caught up in the current hype though and when you see televised forecasts, that are supposed to inform the general public, then it makes you think that all the background info you can gather from a site like this, from informed amateur experts, is just a waste of time and that the thought of extreme weather events is a lot more exciting than the reallity.Ha ha, or do the Meto know more and have advised the Beeb to keep quiet atm so as not to alarm the general public too soon in case they are wrong ? I suspect that may be the case to a certain extent and that things will be upgraded again tomorrow.

We live in hope.

For what it's worth, my own "analysis" is that the next few days will turn out like this for Tyne and Wear :

Mon : one or two light snow showers along the coastal fringe, maybe occasional one scraping along the Tyne Valley as far as Prudhoe.Cold, max 1 deg.

Mon night : Showers dying early on,a few bits of high cloud floating about. Min -5 generally, a few spots down to -8.

Tues : Dry start, lunchtime cloud build up, showers breaking out during the afternoon, all snow.Fairly light but steady precipitation, giving generally 2-4 cm, 4-6 in favoured locations.Max 0 deg.

Tue night : Showers continuing and maybe building for a while as convection increases following the front.Perhaps another 4 cm by morning. Min -5 deg.

Wed : Showers continuing, although decreasing in number, with less intensity. Max -1 deg.

Wed night. Dry, min -6

Thursday : Potentially a more snowy day, with a band of more persistant snow, perhaps giving accumulations of 5-10 cm. Max 0 deg.

After that, someone else can have a guess !!

Karl

Hi Karl, I agree with you regarding the bbc and meto keeping things hush hush, surely if there was something big about to happen they would keep it quiet for as long as possible.

I've gotto say though this has been some winter so far for us on Teesside, its been along long time since we had such a cold spell of weather and snow events mixed in also. We nearly always miss out on the snow due to the salty sea air, I use to think it was the smog lol I suppose I can throw that suggestion out the window now, just goes to show what happens when we get proper easterly's I guess.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

What i don't get is that a cold front heading south is normally got some oomph behind it, this one seems to die of death pretty quickly.

The GFS PPN charts seem to have lots of PPN in the North Sea around Monday evening going into Tuesday(I assume that is the weather front), yet despite picking up a bit of a ne'ly, the front seems to die of death.

I posted earlier this morning that watching BBC forecasts will make you feel like pulling your hair out and it is certainly doing that(although not literally i assure you!).

As i say though, its not what those fancy graphics say or the GFS says, its what the radar says and at least we got a snow covering already so we got a headstart so to speak.

Didn't we go through this with the last front on the Sat before Christmas? I know there were some concerns about it weakening beforehand, and it turned out good.

I don't know enough to know the differences between that event and this one, but I wonder if they could turn out similar?

I'd happy take that again, it would certainly make the Tuesday rush hour interesting!

[NL]

Just been looking at the GFS ensembles and noticed the 18z operational run is the driest of the lot for the front on Monday night/Tuesday morning. Not sure how much to read into that but I think there is every chance there will be more shown on the next runs.

BBC forecasts will be interesting tomorrow. Hopefully they'll add some more white over us.

GFS ensemble Ppn charts for Cumbria are a lot less than our region Mark and thats where the the MetO are saying greater rates of precip... Think we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow afternoon.

[Geordiesnow]

Didn't we go through this with the last front on the Sat before Christmas? I know there were some concerns about it weakening beforehand, and it turned out good.

I don't know enough to know the differences between that event and this one, but I wonder if they could turn out similar?

I'd happy take that again, it would certainly make the Tuesday rush hour interesting!

I don't think so, i always seem to remember the forecasts had a band of PPN heading down from the North but i am not 100% sure, The thing we were worrying about was that bloomin mild sector which did play a small part with sleet on the leading edge of the cold front. I do however recall that barring 1 or 2 runs, the GFS had the fairly cold front heading down but with this one, GFS appears to of dropped this idea on the 18Z whilst others run had PPN over us early Tuesday morning.

Who knows, anyways i'm off too bed, night all.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Geordiesnow

[Geordiesnow]

I don't normally double post but i got to say i watched this morning's BBC forecast and i have to ask, where are all those showery activity that they were predicting for Tuesday? Theres hardly any blobs there and i just heard Peter Gibbs just saying, one or two wintry showers.

Lets hope they upgrade there graphics on that one. The cold front has been upgraded, showing more PPN for us but it looks like there might be some rain/sleet at lower levels at times, going by those (rubbish)graphics.

[izi]

its going to be a case of now casting again, as noone really seems to know! BBC have changed their forecast from lastnight to this morning, and I think they will right up to the event.

[Rollo]

Clear and cold with the temperature at -6c. As to tomorrows snow it really is a case of nowcasting.

[izi]

metoffice tend to be quite accurate with their forecasts over 48hrs, so keep a watch there would be my advice.

they still have a warning up for eastern england for up to 15CM of snow tuesday, with 'several more cms' forecast on wednesday.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Just got to work in Consett and it's really thick up here, a good few inches more than Stanley, i'd say about 10 inches in total.

I'm hoping the Met Office forecasts are closer to the mark than BBC, they are still predicting plenty of snow showers.

[izi]

http://ca.video.yahoo.com/watch/6681017/17353081

becareful not to do this ^

[tynevalleywinter]

Snowed in for the 4th day now in the Tynevalley. Had snow on the ground for 18 days in a row now and currently 10 inches at -7. Maybe it will be nearer 2 foot by the end of the week if the met office is right!

[Geordiesnow]

Welcome to the forum tynevalleywinter.

Must say, the 06Z GFS PPN charts is encouraging for our region and is much better than the UKMO regarding both the cold front and the convective showers.

As others have said, i suppose its a case of nowcasting and not what the charts show. Met Office forecast is promising and is not outdated(although the forecast should update soon as they will have the 06Z UKMO data in) and it certainly would not suggest anything like the BBC graphics either.

The adversories should also be updated soon aswell, be interesting what they all say and whether we are still in the risk zone or not. We should be but this is the Met Office, up and down like a yo-yo.

[peterf]

bliddy hell chaps it's raw out there lol.

[tynevalleywinter]

If it goes our way it could be the snow event we will talk about for years!

[Snowstorm1]

Is the heavy snow still on for tonight and tommorrow?

North East England: Darlington Durham Hartlepool Middlesbrough Northumberland Redcar + Cleveland Stockton-on-Tees Tyne + WearHeavy SnowTue 5 JanThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, northern England and eastern England during Tuesday.

Snow showers are likely to become heavy and frequent at times giving further falls of several cm in many areas, with the potential for 15 to 20cm locally.

Issued at: 1109 Mon 4 Jan

YES IT IS LOOK AT MET OFFICE NEW UPDATED WARNING!!!!

Edited January 4, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[izi]

If it goes our way it could be the snow event we will talk about for years!

Which side of the vally are you on? North/South? You near Mowden Hall School?