North East England Cold Spell Dicussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm basing my 10-20cm prediction on the fact that many places already have 5-10cm, and there are likely to be heavy snow showers on the 5th, 6th and 7th in that north-easterly airstream. They will be hit and miss, but over a longer period the shower distribution tends to even itself somewhat.

My prediction for tonight is based on an analogy with 19 December which also had a front moving down from the north tied in with warmer air, but the 850hPa values were a degree or two higher on that occasion. The more likely way for us to miss out is if the snow band fragments when it reaches us, giving some places just a dusting, but I do expect most places to see a few centimetres.

[Snowstorm1]

I'm basing my 10-20cm prediction on the fact that many places already have 5-10cm, and there are likely to be heavy snow showers on the 5th, 6th and 7th in that north-easterly airstream. They will be hit and miss, but over a longer period the shower distribution tends to even itself somewhat.

My prediction for tonight is based on an analogy with 19 December which also had a front moving down from the north tied in with warmer air, but the 850hPa values were a degree or two higher on that occasion. The more likely way for us to miss out is if the snow band fragments when it reaches us, giving some places just a dusting, but I do expect most places to see a few centimetres.

I liked your forcast but the met is even better! Im starting to think now this could be the best event I can remember in my lifetime at 14years of age! With this update chances of school been closed tommorrow for me now must be 1in5

This Evening and Tonight:

Continuing very cold with a severe frost. Thickening cloud will bring snow from the north to all areas during the night. Significant accumulations are possible, more especially over the Pennines. Minimum temperature -5 °C.

Tuesday:

Rather cloudy with further snow showers or longer spells of snow at times, these giving further accumulations over hills. Very cold with a severe night frost. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Updated: 1528 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

[Alex95]

I'm basing my 10-20cm prediction on the fact that many places already have 5-10cm, and there are likely to be heavy snow showers on the 5th, 6th and 7th in that north-easterly airstream. They will be hit and miss, but over a longer period the shower distribution tends to even itself somewhat.

My prediction for tonight is based on an analogy with 19 December which also had a front moving down from the north tied in with warmer air, but the 850hPa values were a degree or two higher on that occasion. The more likely way for us to miss out is if the snow band fragments when it reaches us, giving some places just a dusting, but I do expect most places to see a few centimetres.

The worry I had was that this morning on the BBC weather forecast this event seemed strikingly similar to the one on the 2nd December 2008. 2-5cm fell west of the Pennines, but to the east there was just a dusting.

[izi]

everyone say a pray for the band moving south to be off snow and to be intense, as currently its being said as marginal and very weak over the North East, recuperating a 100 miles south of us!

the latest GFS output also shows the band fizzling south of scotland and intensifying south of NE once again.

Edited January 4, 2010 by izi

[Snowstorm1]

Is it going to be marginal one or two people saying it is but other people including met dont think so

[peterf]

take it as it comes folks,it's gunna be a belter.

[izi]

Is it going to be marginal one or two people saying it is but other people including met dont think so

i think the first band will be a let down, i think the showers behind could deliver.

I hope i am wrong because 1-3 hours of frontal snow is better than hit and miss showers!

peterf, what do you think? (except for it being propa waxa n al that )

Edited January 4, 2010 by izi

[Alex95]

Is it going to be marginal one or two people saying it is but other people including met dont think so

Yes I think some factors will be fairly marginal, some places near to the coast in particular could get snow which is too wet to stick and is almost sleety, rather like Tyneside experienced on Saturday. Having said that, the air is very cold already this evening, so I'm not too worried about that.

There is a chance imo that most of the energy heads west, leaving us with 1-3cm at most, but also a chance that 5cm falls out of this. The METO have only issued an advisory at this stage, they think that 15-20cm could fall locally but I think this takes into account the possibility of a New Year's day re-run later on tomorrow with very heavy snow showers moving in on troughs. I'm 90% certain that most of the NE will get at least another 5cm tomorrow, whether it be from the band of snow in the morning or the snow showers later on.

[Snowstorm1]

Yes I think some factors will be fairly marginal, some places near to the coast in particular could get snow which is too wet to stick and is almost sleety, rather like Tyneside experienced on Saturday. Having said that, the air is very cold already this evening, so I'm not too worried about that.

There is a chance imo that most of the energy heads west, leaving us with 1-3cm at most, but also a chance that 5cm falls out of this. The METO have only issued an advisory at this stage, they think that 15-20cm could fall locally but I think this takes into account the possibility of a New Year's day re-run later on tomorrow with very heavy snow showers moving in on troughs. I'm 90% certain that most of the NE will get at least another 5cm tomorrow, whether it be from the band of snow in the morning or the snow showers later on.

Im 8miles from the coast already with around 2-4cm snowcover so i should be fine and what time the band going hit roughly and last for ? and what time showers coming in after the band?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

The front isn't looking great on radar, it's weakened and fragmented since earlier today. There is quite a big gap in it over central Scotland which is taking aim at us, but plenty of time for that to change.

[izi]

Yes I think some factors will be fairly marginal, some places near to the coast in particular could get snow which is too wet to stick and is almost sleety, rather like Tyneside experienced on Saturday. Having said that, the air is very cold already this evening, so I'm not too worried about that.

There is a chance imo that most of the energy heads west, leaving us with 1-3cm at most, but also a chance that 5cm falls out of this. The METO have only issued an advisory at this stage, they think that 15-20cm could fall locally but I think this takes into account the possibility of a New Year's day re-run later on tomorrow with very heavy snow showers moving in on troughs. I'm 90% certain that most of the NE will get at least another 5cm tomorrow, whether it be from the band of snow in the morning or the snow showers later on.

from met

"

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, northern England and eastern England during Tuesday.

Snow showers are likely to become heavy and frequent at times giving further falls of several cm in many areas, with the potential for 15 to 20cm locally.

Issued at: 1109 Mon 4 Jan

"

I think the 15-20cm they predict are from the showers behind the main band of precipitation.

[Alex95]

Im 8miles from the coast already with around 2-4cm snowcover so i should be fine and what time the band going hit roughly and last for ? and what time showers coming in after the band?

1st band of snow coming before midnight, looks too fragmented to me already as MCT has pointed out, then any time tomorrow there could be showers, but they look like organising themselves into troughs/bands of snow with some drier interludes in between. That is good imo, the snow tends to be heavier and more prolonged when it is organised into troughs rather than random showers which are scattered around the region.

BTW 8 miles from the coast should be OK, but I wouldn't guarantee it, and having snowcover doesn't help make it any less marginal, unless of course the temperatures are lower because of it.

Edited January 4, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

1st band of snow coming before midnight, looks too fragmented to me already as MCT has pointed out, then any time tomorrow there could be showers, but they look like organising themselves into troughs/bands of snow with some drier interludes in between. That is good imo, the snow tends to be heavier and more prolonged when it is organised into troughs rather than random showers which are scattered around the region.

BTW 8 miles from the coast should be OK, but I wouldn't guarantee it, and having snowcover doesn't help make it any less marginal, unless of course the temperatures are lower because of it.

There is plenty of time for that band to pep up though so not worried yet maybe around 7ish if it hasnt pepped up ill start to be more worried. And i mean with the snowcover it will be easier to lay.

[paul tall]

The front isn't looking great on radar, it's weakened and fragmented since earlier today. There is quite a big gap in it over central Scotland which is taking aim at us, but plenty of time for that to change.

Yes it is like opening a pair of curtains, and we are looking like being the in the window.

I think tonights event will amount to just a dusting, maybe a cm or two here and there. After missing the heaviest of the snowfall, I'm not dreaming of deep cover here.

Funnily enough, I was on the outskirts of town today and I swear down there was twice as much snow there as what there is at mine 1 mile down the road. I have 4-5cm, looked like 8-10cm there, just goes to show how localised the snowfall is.

[Rollo]

Its worth noting that when the front arrives any snowfall will be marginal and lower laying areas might see sleet or rain before the real cold tucks in,worth remembering if out driving as surfaces are very cold.

[peterf]

the scottish traffic cams are looking lively lol.

[Snowstorm1]

Whats going on temp has started to rise?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Its worth noting that when the front arrives any snowfall will be marginal and lower laying areas might see sleet or rain before the real cold tucks in,worth remembering if out driving as surfaces are very cold.

I doubt that this will be much of an issue as the uppers are 1-2C colder than on 19 December when a similar setup arose and brought a wintry mix on the southern flank of the band.

More likely, some areas will get only weak snowfall giving a dusting while others see 3-5cm.

The showers behind are likely to pack more of a punch than the front.

[Alex95]

There is plenty of time for that band to pep up though so not worried yet maybe around 7ish if it hasnt pepped up ill start to be more worried. And i mean with the snowcover it will be easier to lay.

The front is really fragmenting now, I doubt we'll get much from this initial event.

Whats going on temp has started to rise?

That'll be the milder air starting to appear in order to make it marginal

[izi]

Whats going on temp has started to rise?

the warm sector will rise the temps intially, although its not here yet i dont think. Temp here is -1.1 - has cloud cover increased?

[Geordiesnow]

As ever, it is really just about watching the radar and see what happens, i think if luck is on outside, 1-2CM could well be added, if not a dusting or nothing at all.

The showers following on behind should be more promising however all this will depend how far South that weather front heads south as often the case, it leaves a legacy of cloud behind and then once that cloud clears, we will be in the slightly colder and showery airstream.

Remember, even if the beeb predicted snow, its not a guranteed as some of us at lower levels have found out very recently. If the forecasts on Saturday morning were accurate, then we would not of had a thaw on that day.

[izi]

As ever, it is really just about watching the radar and see what happens, i think if luck is on outside, 1-2CM could well be added, if not a dusting or nothing at all.

The showers following on behind should be more promising however all this will depend how far South that weather front heads south as often the case, it leaves a legacy of cloud behind and then once that cloud clears, we will be in the slightly colder and showery airstream.

Remember, even if the beeb predicted snow, its not a guranteed as some of us at lower levels have found out very recently. If the forecasts on Saturday morning were accurate, then we would not of had a thaw on that day.

the beeb wasnt and still isnt showing snow for newcastle. as i said earlier it shows it breaking up southern scotland and reforming and intensifying further south.

as others have said I think the showers are more promising.

temp risen to -0.9, more cloud cover. whats everyone else reading?

Edited January 4, 2010 by izi

[Snowstorm1]

I can confirm that the small rise in temperature was because of cloud cover.

And the band seems to be intensifying?

Edited January 4, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[peterf]

i'm very confident of snow around midnight.

[paul tall]

the beeb wasnt and still isnt showing snow for newcastle. as i said earlier it shows it breaking up southern scotland and reforming and intensifying further south.

as others have said I think the showers are more promising.

temp risen to -0.9, more cloud cover. whats everyone else reading?

+0.4, a rise of nearly 2 degrees.