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East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion


Jayces

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

My main interest was mid to late week , that north easterly.... The 18Z GFS has downgraded it way too much ! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Yamkin, who's to say they won't change like the snow for tomorrow has done? Looked like it was on it's way. Now it's not.....

Snow is on it's way even though it is slightly delayed

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

My main interest was mid to late week , that north easterly.... The 18Z GFS has downgraded it way too much ! :lol:

Yeh, whats going on with the weekend?

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

New fax charts for the weekend:

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVO89.TIF

Warm front just across the water? :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Stortford
  • Location: Bishops Stortford

Your confidence is either admirable, or youre deliberately trying to wind people up. We know anything can happen, but we're within t24 of the event starting and our area is barely getting by with a dusting.

Actually Yamkin's claims seem more than reasonable considering the current models and forecasts. I don't think he is trying to wind people up: just reporting the current warnings for the south east. :lol:

Either way guys - realise that snow is very much a nowcast situation. With the cold persisting, I'd be willing to bet that we'll get some snow at some point in the South east - just a question of when imo.:lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

New fax charts for the weekend:

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVO89.TIF

Is that the Shafenacker storm coming huh.gifhuh.gif

Answered my question. Looks promising?

Actually Yamkin's claims seem more than reasonable considering the current models and forecasts. I don't think he is trying to wind people up: just reporting the current warnings for the south east. :lol:

Either way guys - realise that snow is very much a nowcast situation. With the cold persisting, I'd be willing to bet that we'll get some snow at some point in the South east - just a question of when imo.:lol:

I was doubting his confidence for tomorrow night. After that nothing is written off.

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

I know this is a bit off topic, but I was just wondering how this weather will affect the football etc this weekend?

I can see a whole wedge of matches postponed by this cold, but with the possibility of heavy snow I reckon there will be problems for fans.

The reason I am saying this is 'because I am meant to be going to the Emirates on Wednesday and up to Hull to cover the Chelsea match on Saturday and I am feeling that I am going to encounter serious problems.

Any ideas how badly the supposed convection on Friday/Saturday will affect transport up to Hull? The last thing I want to do is travel up there and the match is cancelled, should I wait in booking my train ticket or take the chance?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Nice 96hrs fax chart for our region with a trough coming in off the North Sea...

GFS still on its own with regards to the easterly and actually a total synoptic outlier with the evolution of the upper atmosphere between 72-96hrs which makes a difference down the line to any easterly airflow.

PS, according to Paul Blight on UKWW the UKMO solution at 18z is further east and spread the precip over "london and the home counties"...

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Your confidence is either admirable, or youre deliberately trying to wind people up. We know anything can happen, but we're within t24 of the event starting and our area is barely getting by with a dusting.

No wind up here. It's what has been sent in by the MetO. Why are so many down beat. We still have snow on the way

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

NEW fax chart for tomorrow evening:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Looks better for us???

It's virtually the same as before

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

NEW fax chart for tomorrow evening:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Looks better for us???

That is looking good, just hope the cold air stays around, the last thing we need is a warm sector.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Stortford
  • Location: Bishops Stortford

No wind up here. It's what has been sent in by the MetO. Why are so many down beat. We still have snow on the way

I think expectations go way out of proportion. Even if it snowed 30cm, people would want 50/60 cms. Either way, I'm sure we'll get some tomorrow - just a question of how much.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/util/setpreference/SetPreference.xhtml?type=node&state=vi:V

Latest BBC Forecast on their Site - Click The Arrow and Hit Play

All I can say from that is Ouch Ouch Ouch and Ouch

Not looking good at all from that, the main band that gives 25cm to Central Southern England then moves west and probably fizzles out during Wednesday.

I can see this being a massive letdown now for the South East and East Anglia.

Got to let the kids know in the morning :):):):)

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Still need it to be further south-east, we need to have the front over us as the LP develop OT, if that happens then things become interesting, that fax chart is close, not still main fun and games to our west...

That second front however looks increasingly likely to come down and give us a visit, thats the one that needs watching for the best chace of snow now IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

I think expectations go way out of proportion. Even if it snowed 30cm, people would want 50/60 cms. Either way, I'm sure we'll get some tomorrow - just a question of how much.<_<

Na it's sunday and monday mornings models/forecasts that's done it , to go from HEAVY snow over east and south east , then all the way to saturday. To well this

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Posted
  • Location: Fakenham, North Norfolk
  • Location: Fakenham, North Norfolk

Unfortunately for us in the home counties/south east/EA the agreement from all the models is for it to go west. The GFS earlier was out on a limb in sending it East anyway.

Yep, I think you are right. The weather is not coming from the North East which would bring in the showers. Still hopeful for Wed though (according to BBC if you can believe them)<_< I am from North Norfolk.

Edited by hobbielancie
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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Newsnight weather on BBC 2 now

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

NEW fax chart for tomorrow evening:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Looks better for us???

I was thinking the same thing. The front is closer to being over the south-east. Any of the other more knowledgeable on here want to analyse? Including you Ocean Transit.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

PS, according to Paul Blight on UKWW the UKMO solution at 18z is further east and spread the precip over "london and the home counties"...

Sorry to be thick, but who is Paul Blight?

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Actually Yamkin's claims seem more than reasonable considering the current models and forecasts. I don't think he is trying to wind people up: just reporting the current warnings for the south east. cool.gif

Either way guys - realise that snow is very much a nowcast situation. With the cold persisting, I'd be willing to bet that we'll get some snow at some point in the South east - just a question of when imo.biggrin.gif

Yamkin always exaggerates snow set-ups out of proportion.

It is right to say of course that we are undoubtably going to see a fair amount of snow, but therefore even more reason why I don't see the need for this OTT ramping and exaggerating every single snippet of information to make into a 'day after tomorrow' situation.

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Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

NEW fax chart for tomorrow evening:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Looks better for us???

It's the next chart which is the problem, as the low deepens the front tilts around and thus that is where some major depths could be had (up to a foot I'd imagine).

This is currently looking like it will be over Hampshire, Wiltshire, Berkshire, Oxfordshire etc but there's a decent chance the location isn't settled yet and also a chance of the part of the front pepping up.

Lots to keep watching in the models, I have to say I've not been so pleasantly surprised by the models at such short range before, definitely a great learning experience for many amateur model viewers like myself <_< :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent

http://news.bbc.co.u...node&state=vi:V

Latest BBC Forecast on their Site - Click The Arrow and Hit Play

All I can say from that is Ouch Ouch Ouch and Ouch

Not looking good at all from that, the main band that gives 25cm to Central Southern England then moves west and probably fizzles out during Wednesday.

I can see this being a massive letdown now for the South East and East Anglia.

Got to let the kids know in the morning help.gifbomb.gifhelp.gifph34r.gif

Paul S

All I can say is Bo-lox!

Looks like I might have to postpone my half days annual leave while the SE carries on chasing the carrot on the stick....

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

kold you mentioned precip for the home counities does this mean bucks may get something

It's the next chart which is the problem, as the low deepens the front tilts around and thus that is where some major depths could be had (up to a foot I'd imagine).

This is currently looking like it will be over Hampshire, Wiltshire, Berkshire, Oxfordshire etc but there's a decent chance the location isn't settled yet and also a chance of the part of the front pepping up.

Lots to keep watching in the models, I have to say I've not been so pleasantly surprised by the models at such short range before, definitely a great learning experience for many amateur model viewers like myself whistling.gifdirol.gif

is buckinghamshire included

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