East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[jojobut]

Glad to see my winter forcast made last summer continues to be spot on

Well done!

[saint]

What? Not enough east for those in the west? Shocking.....

:cold: I just think we might be just on the edge....... How do you think we will do tonight??

[Neilsouth]

Evening All-

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

S

Steve ,Light snow in folkestone and Hythe thats far east :blink:

[ickledoozer]

The snow is light now and appears to be a bit slushy on the ground, unlike the December snow. Hopefully this is just an interlude!

Edited January 5, 2010 by ickledoozer

[remymartin]

Evening All-

Im going to try & get this at the top of the page-

This is about as up to date forecast you get & is valid inline with the models until 10pm-

& try to make sense of the gazillion posts on here-

A VERY COMPLEX Pattern here in the SE corner which has been developing in the models for a day or 2-

Basically the jet stream has been flowing down from Scandi in a SW direction- Hence that system moving down the North sea-

However as the jet exits SW through western scotland its developed a loop that runs in an easterly direction across the Channel-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/euro5.00hr.png

the lift that this generates coupled with the convegnce has developed a small shortwave that is funneling the PPN North East-

again,most models have picked this up, with varying degrees of momentum North & East-

http://expert.weathe...010518_0512.gif

Notice the isolines curved NE- the around the top back west- this means the PPN will move NEwards out of Portsmouth, reach the Western posrtions of London & the home Counties & then start to curve west & LOSE momentum NE-

Key here - for the NORTHERN extent of the PPN will look to stall out around 10pm- so If it hasnt reached you ( north side by then) then you may well be out of luck-

THen look at the T 9 & 12 charts-

http://expert.weathe...010521_0512.gif

http://expert.weathe...010600_0512.gif

10- Midnight is the MAX Northern & Eastern Extent of the PPN, also note a more curved signature of the isolines,in terms of its PPN sheild means you will get Extension East away from the Main core - However this will INFLECT more & more- so even though it may appear that its marching further & further North, at some point that will stall -

Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, W Herts

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

S

great post as ever steve even i can understand that :blink:

[snowwonder]

Heavy snow in Luton, already have nearly an inch in less than half hour, bit unexpected can I expect more now??? :blink:

[Roo]

:blink: I just think we might be just on the edge....... How do you think we will do tonight??

I just do not know....we often seem to get snow when we're supposed not to thanks to the Chilterns and the height, but I'm just not sure this time....I wouldn't be surprised to find a fair bit after tonight, but then again, I equally wouldn't be shocked at a dusting.

Too close to call....:lol:

[remymartin]

:blink::lol: I just think we might be just on the edge....... How do you think we will do tonight??

I think im more onthe edge than you saint you should be ok:drinks:

[kold weather]

Thanks Steve, how long is that 'valid' till, as I think tomorrow morning/afternoon looks very interesting as well with the second front coming down...

As you say the easterly looks very interesting it has to be said....

Will be most interesting to see just how much snow Guildford has had when all is said and done, I'd imagine right on the core of the heavy stuff probably 10-15cms...

[Neilsouth]

We still have 1-2cm on the ground here :blink: :lol: , come more please

[kold weather]

Closing this now by the way!

[Jan_Bromley]

Evening All-

Im going to try & get this at the top of the page-

This is about as up to date forecast you get & is valid inline with the models until 10pm-

& try to make sense of the gazillion posts on here-

A VERY COMPLEX Pattern here in the SE corner which has been developing in the models for a day or 2-

Basically the jet stream has been flowing down from Scandi in a SW direction- Hence that system moving down the North sea-

However as the jet exits SW through western scotland its developed a loop that runs in an easterly direction across the Channel-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/euro5.00hr.png

the lift that this generates coupled with the convegnce has developed a small shortwave that is funneling the PPN North East-

again,most models have picked this up, with varying degrees of momentum North & East-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010518_0512.gif

Notice the isolines curved NE- the around the top back west- this means the PPN will move NEwards out of Portsmouth, reach the Western posrtions of London & the home Counties & then start to curve west & LOSE momentum NE-

Key here - for the NORTHERN extent of the PPN will look to stall out around 10pm- so If it hasnt reached you ( north side by then) then you may well be out of luck-

THen look at the T 9 & 12 charts-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010521_0512.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010600_0512.gif

10- Midnight is the MAX Northern & Eastern Extent of the PPN, also note a more curved signature of the isolines,in terms of its PPN sheild means you will get Extension East away from the Main core - However this will INFLECT more & more- so even though it may appear that its marching further & further North, at some point that will stall -

Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, W Herts

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

S

Thank you Steve as ever, for all your hardwork in posting this info

[k66yla]

Looks like Tonbridge will see something soon, hopefully it will then make its way towards Maidstone :blink:

[chionomaniac]

Considering the main band has not arrived yet, this event is very good already! Temperature now 0.1ºC.

[saint]

I just do not know....we often seem to get snow when we're supposed not to thanks to the Chilterns and the height, but I'm just not sure this time....I wouldn't be surprised to find a fair bit after tonight, but then again, I equally wouldn't be shocked at a dusting.

Too close to call....:blink:

Well at least we have the snow at the moment.

[Mark Burton]

This band seems to be steadily marching into S cambridgeshire, It's almost got to Stevenage - at this rate it will hit us within a couple of hours. if it is going to stall it needs to do it soon! - any opinions??

[stewfox]

Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, W Herts

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

S

Excellent post hope mods can keep it at top a special thread for 'interesting posts'

PS Im a shire west of london and im sticking out for a jackpot , still very heavy snow here

[chilly milly]

Trying to snow in Stevenage...and in trying I mean I am standing on my doorstep going 'there's a snowflake, ooh look there's another one.'

I think I've seen 10 snowflakes so far. :blink:

[Downpour]

Truth is I really don't know, the picture will be clearer in an hour or so.. we could get 5cm.. or we could get 25cm.. just have to see what happens

It's a long wait but that Dutch radar looks as if all of London should now cop it. The band has really thickened up to the south. That all said, I'd be amazed if we get more than 5cm! I'd actually be well happy with two inches, more that I have had all winter so far (two falls of one inch or less)

Dutch radar here: http://www.meteox.nl/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=250&y=221

[Optimus Prime]

Cheers Steve sucha shame you lot arent in with it as much. Youll get some later this week hopefully!

Current heavy snow and 3.5 inches already! Could get 30 or 40cm by the end of this and then more potential showers. Best winter since the early 80s! And after a good snowfall Feb were in for a good run here.