East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Keep it going guys and remember that number 1 rule...respect!

[DEYS(Kent)]

Snowing in SE Kent....

[Neilsouth]

Well if it does snow here , the ground is iced up and we still have snow on the ground!

[Snow Cat]

Woo! Snizzle and sleet turned to snow and getting heavier and settling. This is a nice surprise didn't really expect anything until the end of the week.

[lottiekent]

Snap here, that wierd polystyrene snow...I can actually hear it clicking against the front door!

[Andy H]

Seems to be snowing everwhere apart from here

[Vesuvius]

Steve, thanks very much for this analysis.

I may just get lucky tonight then.

[winterfreak]

Well if it does snow here , the ground is iced up and we still have snow on the ground!

Been more or less an ice day here today and with (currently) -1.4°c and -3.5°c dewpoint, it should settle straightaway! IF we get any of course....

Edit to say that according to raintoday, the band approaching us seems to be more sleety.... Wattsupwiththat?

Edited January 5, 2010 by winterfreak

[winter watcher]

Snowing all around me and i thought we was in for a hammering If there is any snow what time would it be arriving in sw London anyone please?

[Long haul to mild]

There is a hint of some marginality near the coast of EA tomorrow which could make any PPN a bit sleety at times.

Does that risk still apply on the possible events on Thur/Fri/Weekend or will the air be even colder then so it will all be snow?

Anyone "in the know" got any views on this?

[Vesuvius]

Seems to be snowing everwhere apart from here

You and me both buddy

[toggerob]

Thanks Steve. Whats the likelyhood of Convective Forcing due to the showers in the NE coming down and embedding within the Frontal Mass?, I'd expect with another "boost" from moisture inhibited within these cells they could spring a few surprises for one or two on the North Facing Flank.

[saint]

What is the front expected to do?

[Roadrunner]

Great post as always Steve. A question for you or Kold.

Would you include Romford area as a high risk area for snow at the weekend? Think we may miss out tomorrow other than a dusting. Not sure what direction of flow is best for me??

[Snowy Bob]

Heads up.

Steady gentle snow down here in Folkestone.

[morfius]

It looks as though areas to the west of central London should get the decent heavier stuff within an hour after which the front will begin to stall.

[scotteboi]

Seems to be snowing everwhere apart from here

Nowt here as well.....our time will come!!!

[Guest archiesmummy]

Seems to be snowing everwhere apart from here

not snowing here either

any one got some good news for me?

[Suttonian]

First few flakes appearing in Sutton south london now temp 2c

[Updraft]

Here in Dover it is now a snowy sleety mix... can here the rain on the roof... not good

[remymartin]

Meto put us in an orange area now saint

[SMU]

Evening All-

Im going to try & get this at the top of the page-

This is about as up to date forecast you get & is valid inline with the models until 10pm-

& try to make sense of the gazillion posts on here-

A VERY COMPLEX Pattern here in the SE corner which has been developing in the models for a day or 2-

Basically the jet stream has been flowing down from Scandi in a SW direction- Hence that system moving down the North sea-

However as the jet exits SW through western scotland its developed a loop that runs in an easterly direction across the Channel-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/euro5.00hr.png

the lift that this generates coupled with the convegnce has developed a small shortwave that is funneling the PPN North East-

again,most models have picked this up, with varying degrees of momentum North & East-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010518_0512.gif

Notice the isolines curved NE- the around the top back west- this means the PPN will move NEwards out of Portsmouth, reach the Western posrtions of London & the home Counties & then start to curve west & LOSE momentum NE-

Key here - for the NORTHERN extent of the PPN will look to stall out around 10pm- so If it hasnt reached you ( north side by then) then you may well be out of luck-

THen look at the T 9 & 12 charts-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010521_0512.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010600_0512.gif

10- Midnight is the MAX Northern & Eastern Extent of the PPN, also note a more curved signature of the isolines,in terms of its PPN sheild means you will get Extension East away from the Main core - However this will INFLECT more & more- so even though it may appear that its marching further & further North, at some point that will stall -

Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, w herts

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

valid until midnight

S

[BucksSnow]

got 5cm now in bucks hope to see 40cm by the end

[Downpour]

Seems to be snowing everwhere apart from here

It still isn't snowing in west London!

[Derp Patrol]

Snowing all around me and i thought we was in for a hammering If there is any snow what time would it be arriving in sw London anyone please?

Should be hitting London fairly soon, heavy snow will reach the outskirts of the south/SW at about 9pm, look here, that massive band of snow is heading straight for us

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/