East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[tinybill]

Meh. Not a sausage here and now not expecting any more than an inch, if anything.

not one snow flake in sufffolk !!!! loads of warning for later in the week but i cant wait!!

[Dave Clarke]

Wording of the new warning:-

London & South East England: Gtr London Heavy Snow 2240 Tue 5 1100 Wed 6 Snowfall on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will give accumulations of 2-5cm quite widely. Accumulations may reach between 5-10cm locally. This is most likely in west London and western parts of Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire where there is a low risk of 10-15cm. This may cause disruption to transport networks.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 2032 Tue 5 Jan

[Jezzer]

Staying in east London tonight, just past Leytonstone. Was bitterly cold when I got off the tube at Snaresbrook, hoping this band of snow is going to spread here shortly. Fingers crossed

[DEYS(Kent)]

Evening All-

Im going to try & get this at the top of the page-

This is about as up to date forecast you get & is valid inline with the models until 10pm-

& try to make sense of the gazillion posts on here-

A VERY COMPLEX Pattern here in the SE corner which has been developing in the models for a day or 2-

Basically the jet stream has been flowing down from Scandi in a SW direction- Hence that system moving down the North sea-

However as the jet exits SW through western scotland its developed a loop that runs in an easterly direction across the Channel-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/euro5.00hr.png

the lift that this generates coupled with the convegnce has developed a small shortwave that is funneling the PPN North East-

again,most models have picked this up, with varying degrees of momentum North & East-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010518_0512.gif

Notice the isolines curved NE- the around the top back west- this means the PPN will move NEwards out of Portsmouth, reach the Western posrtions of London & the home Counties & then start to curve west & LOSE momentum NE-

Key here - for the NORTHERN extent of the PPN will look to stall out around 10pm- so If it hasnt reached you ( north side by then) then you may well be out of luck-

THen look at the T 9 & 12 charts-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010521_0512.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010600_0512.gif

10- Midnight is the MAX Northern & Eastern Extent of the PPN, also note a more curved signature of the isolines,in terms of its PPN sheild means you will get Extension East away from the Main core - However this will INFLECT more & more- so even though it may appear that its marching further & further North, at some point that will stall -

Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, w herts

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

valid until midnight

S

Evening Steve. Snow all the way here 5 ASL

[chelsea01]

no sign of snow in rochester kent. but hoping

[chilly milly]

Brilliant post Steve, and easy to understand because even I got it.

Meto have a flash warning out now for Herts, Beds, west of the region.

It is now snowing properly in Stevenage and starting to settle.

Temp is -0.1c and dewpoint is -2.0c

[Neilsouth]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Zoom into the EAST and South east

Click on RAINFALL

Run the rainfall loop at the top right hand corner

HOLY CRAP! , look at tomorrow night

[stratty]

Meh. Not a sausage here and now not expecting any more than an inch, if anything.

Have had nothing today

Congrats to those that have, enjoy

Looking forward to hopefully seeing some beefy showers over the next few days............shame, as it was looking hopeful for this area with todays events a couple of days ago!

Thanks for your post earlier Steve, very informative - as ever!!!

[kold weather]

Heavy falling snow. Just measuring 6 cm.

Your going to b real close to the bullseye, probably on your way to a foot...lucky thing!

I always seem to not quite get these exceptional snowfalls but there ya go!

[shotski]

Meh. Not a sausage here and now not expecting any more than an inch, if anything.

You will get 10cm Min by the end of the night

[rmc1987]

The really heavy stuff for London will arrive in the next 15 mins and then it will snow for hours without stop as London is in the firing line for the band coming in

Looks like tomorrow will be pretty much chaos in London.

[theuselesseater]

not one snow flake in sufffolk !!!! loads of warning for later in the week but i cant wait!!

Patience, my boy...

Good things come to those who.........

The potential for EA after tonight's 'Little' (cough) mishap further south is rather spanking

Tue - J

[shotski]

Meh. Not a sausage here and now not expecting any more than an inch, if anything.

You will get 10cm Min by the end of the night

[Amanzi]

Well I got rain now...

[SnowBorder]

Can't believe I am on holiday and missing potentially the best snow for 30 years.

[SeaBreeze]

woohoo!...snowing here now and it's laying...couple of cms already, hopefully more to come

Location: on a clifftop overlooking the channel - Telscombe Cliffs, East Sussex (about 4 miles east of Brighton)

[YokTok]

Snowing in Redhill...at last

[Great Plum]

Wow, snowing heavily now in Reigate and readily settling!

[Wonderland]

Anybody want to give me any idea of what to expect for us lot in the East. Norwich in particular.

[CHANNEL LOW]

Littlehampton

West Sussex

Calling

Heavy sleet now, after an hour of rain.

Snow next?

[toggerob]

M27 blocked 34/1B Jct9 Slip, aswell as the A3 and power outages in Clanfield.

[Optimus Prime]

Your going to b real close to the bullseye, probably on your way to a foot...lucky thing!

I always seem to not quite get these exceptional snowfalls but there ya go!

Cheers Kold - Here's hoping. February wasn't that great here, 'only' got 9cm. Still though, it took ages to thaw even with the very mild 2nd half.

I reckon in excess of a foot at this rate. Now measuring 7cm.

[easy-oasy]

Good to hear it is snowing in Stevanage... Only a few more miles to get here! (Fingers Crossed!)

[DEYS(Kent)]

Sleeting here now...

[Matty J]

Not expecting much here then Steve and thanks for the great Summary Mate!

Looks like Wednesday will be nuisance value snow that is frizzling out and then hopefully SE Essex can get some beefy showers from the NE Flow, If that fails then I have to say I give up completely on winters post 1991!

Interestingly there are some showers that have cropped up in the Thames Estuary that are just meandering around near to Burnham, Maldon way, anyone under those as they seem to have initiated about 400 yards from my house

Paul S

Im in Maldon Paul, well Heybridge actually but its only at the bottom of the hill! :lol:

I can confirm that after consulting my local lampost i can report that there is currently.........................Bugger all falling from the sky! The lampost also tells me we are going to miss out on anything substantial!

Funny how at the weekend we were in for Armageddon and now we are due next to nothing compared with the 30cms+ some parts have received.

Matt.