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Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

Methuselah

By Methuselah
in Spring Weather Discussion

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

GFS shows the snow potential for Sunday and Monday now but makes out the Precip to be very light. :drinks:

I would expect the gfs to upgrade the precip as we get nearer to it, if the general setup remians the same.

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Looking at the radar I would not rule out some more snow showers tonight!

I'd be very surprised if any made it to Northants. They are struggling to reach Notts and none have made it to Leicester so to travel to Northants without dying out would be a near miracle.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

GFS shows the snow potential for Sunday and Monday now but makes out the Precip to be very light. :drinks:

Somebody posted the ECM precipitation chart for Sunday earlier as well which also showed it as light.

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azores92 Apprentice

azores92

Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Posted

Somebody posted the ECM precipitation chart for Sunday earlier as well which also showed it as light.

why worry about it, it is so far away! it could get wiped altogether. last nights snow event was shown to be rain until 12/24 hours before it happened.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Time to get the Factor2 ready!!!shok.giflaugh.gif

Yes, truly vile chart, let's pray that it doesn't come off.

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Bottesford Experienced

Bottesford

Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
Posted

Well looks like all the showers are fading to nothing before reaching here. Oh well will carry on making do with our inch of snow!

Looking at radar seeing many areas getting covered with heavy snow, then covered again.. and again... Must be crazy down there.

We've had only the lighter bands of snow - and only 2 or 3 of them. Such is the problem of our location when it comes to snow!

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

I would expect the gfs to upgrade the precip as we get nearer to it, if the general setup remians the same.

Exactly right. Just like the GFS did with this event. And the event before that. Oh, and the event before that too, etc.

The GFS never gets a real grip of snow events until 48 hrs beforehand UNLESS and this is the one exception I've noticed, we have a battleground situation with a low coming up and colliding with cold air in situ over the UK, in that case it can be more accurate with its precipitation projections further ahead. Anything less "obvious" if you like and it really does struggle.

For short range snow forecasts consider looking at the NMM. It really is a useful tool and more reliable than the GFS with it's wall-to-wall pinks.

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

The good thing about Sunday is that once again, marginality shouldn't be a problem!

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

I'd be very surprised if any made it to Northants. They are struggling to reach Notts and none have made it to Leicester so to travel to Northants without dying out would be a near miracle.

I'd be quite surprised too but like I said I'm not ruling it out. Plenty of convective stuff kicking off just NE of here. It's really not beyond the realms of possibility else I wouldn't have mentioned it!

Glad you got your fair share of the white stuff Andy. More than me this time by the sounds of it. :D

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

Off topic again, but i found a video on the bbc which shows snow events from the 60's onwards....It's really cool! (cold)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8443400.stm

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we_want_snow Newbie

we_want_snow

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury
Posted

A shower reach me earlier so who knows?????

Don't shoot me but what depths do we think are possible on Sunday?

If not possible, how long is it expected to snow for?

It'll probably all change but oh well

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

Dont think it will....unsure.gif

Can you imagine if it did?? 18c anybody laugh.gif

I'm a strong believer in mother nature's balancing abilities. For that reason it would not surprise me if summer 2010 was a recordbreaker in terms of heat as much as it pains me to say it. Any cold we get now will likely be countered by extremes on the other end of the scale later in the year.

But certainly I would be extremely disappointed if we return to the default winter pattern of recent years as soon as 2 weeks time. I'm of the opinion that this winter has a lot more to give yet and if the southerlies start mid to late Jan then I fear that potential will be wasted.

Remember we are not even in what is typically the coldest part of the winter yet. My fear is that mother nature will try and redress the balance too early and we end up with a very mild second half of the winter which could almost completely counter what we've experienced in the first half if it proves as persistent as the cold has been!

A winter of two halves? I sincerely hope not. Relentless cold for me, please.

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted

We could easily get as much as 10cm in the satnight/sunday snow event somewhre here in the midlands. However, the east and south east may see 15cm+ ! Im travelling back to uni in Norwich on sunday and im sitting here thinking will the journey be a waste of time( road disruption) it could potentially be a nightmare!huh.gifsad.gif And plus, the east is likely to have snow showers from tomorrow and through the first part of the weekend also!shok.gif

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted

Is that massive stream of showers just to the north of Newcastle going to die as soon as it leaves the pennines as it moves south? Will it get even as far as south as the peak district?

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Mark Griffin Explorer

Mark Griffin

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
Posted

Is that massive stream of showers just to the north of Newcastle going to die as soon as it leaves the pennines as it moves south? Will it get even as far as south as the peak district?

I doubt it unfortunately.. seems to die back as soon as it reaches a line from Carlisle to Newcastle

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted

-3.3c here currently

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butler_son Enthusiast

butler_son

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe, Bucks
  • Location: High Wycombe, Bucks
Posted

My 88 year old Uncle has just texted me saying "this reminds me of 1947, when we were out sledging in April". Bearing in mind he's in Tenerife and it's not April, somehow I doubt his claim... :drinks:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

still got all my snow, no thaw at all out of sun, temp now -2.8C, gfs 12Z looks great for sunday/monday but rather progressive in FI

reached 1.5C today

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

still got all my snow, no thaw at all out of sun, temp now -2.8C, gfs 12Z looks great for sunday/monday but rather progressive in FI

reached 1.5C today

Wow, that's a high max, only reached -0.1c here. Wouldn't take much notice of the GFS FI, always wants to bring back mild which never really happens.

-3.2c here already.

Edited by nick2702
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Wow, that's a high max, only reached -0.1c here. Wouldn't take much notice of the GFS FI, always wants to bring back mild which never really happens.

I know I was surprised at my max but no thaw, dew point must have been sub zero, just pleased gfs has trended towards euros

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