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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I'll put it in the new thread then Pete :D

"Unrelenting cold and snow still for the next 10 days from the ECM. GFS keeps things slightly less cold, but potentially snowier with fronts from the atlantic making more inroads, due to generally less energy in the southern Jet.

Sunday is still possibly on but how widespread or heavy is totally unknown atm.

Temperatures of -18, DP's of -20 IMO makes this the worst cold spell for 25 years maybe more"

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Wonderful winter cold charts this morning. This is now taking shape for a memorable spell, similar to some of those 1960s type winters. The pattern is locked and very similar, may I dare say to Januaary 1963 !!. This weekends wind

chill is going to be quite something across Southern Britain with the increased Easterly and -10C 850ph temps widely across the heart of the county. When I say pattern, there will be an attack fron the southwest sometime next week, but its a safe bet the low will be kept to the south of Britain.

Enjoy over there !!

C

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GFS 00z is prolonging the cold spell out to 12-14 days now and almost succeeds in producing a NE'ly blast but pulls back from that with a slow trend to less cold by the end of the run although it has taken a step in the right direction with no easy route back to mild weather. The ECM & UKMO 00z shows the scandi high being dominant next week with E'ly winds continuing as the cold block holds until T+240 hours and beyond. E'ly winds will become strong across england and wales through the coming weekend with snow showers & drifting but scotland will be calmer and mainly fine but with severe frosts and minima close to minus 20c, during next week the E'ly winds should freshen across northern britain as well.

Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Just how long this real cold is going to last is certainly not certain yet-at least 7 possibly 10 days-

look at some of the overnight lows last night reported so far with most on low ground away from Scotland as well

-18C at Woodford

-15C at Manchester airport+Yeovilton, and Carlisle together as low level stations with Eskdalemuir also on -15C

There are 20 places reporting -10C or below this morning, most at low level!

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

I was going to wait until this morning too post, after reading some of the GFS posts last night.

I think it can be fair to say, the in the mid to long term, you could say the 00z GFS is back tracking now more towards the likes of the ECM and UKMo.

However, probably due to the lack of respect for the GFS, one thing that might be missed, is it is still looking increasing the 850's (for example, Derbyshire) on the 13th. However, in terms of 850's it potentially looks more like a revert to the late December situation. A brief milder, but still cold, interlude, with a return to further cold afterwards.

I am by no means saying that the GFS is correct, and I would agree that overall, the ECM does perform better (but the 12z GFS does quite well). But, if this rise, albeit very brief, does occur, then the GFS will have picked this up 7-10 days before the event happened.

What I would suggest, is that perhaps the GFS is good at picking up initial signals of changes, but not very good in modeling them past this point.

I want to check, but also as a guess, the 13th, and probably the following couple of days, have now moved in to the Hi-Res? So perhaps good at picking up signals in the low res, poor at their development?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

However, probably due to the lack of respect for the GFS, one thing that might be missed, is it is still looking increasing the 850's (for example, Derbyshire) on the 13th. However, in terms of 850's it potentially looks more like a revert to the late December situation. A brief milder, but still cold, interlude, with a return to further cold afterwards.

I am by no means saying that the GFS is correct, and I would agree that overall, the ECM does perform better (but the 12z GFS does quite well). But, if this rise, albeit very brief, does occur, then the GFS will have picked this up 7-10 days before the event happened.

Best not not to look at the 850mb temps projected as guide to ground temps though, they do rise on the operational next week (it looks like a mild outlier at the 850mb level into the low res), but at the surface, there's no sign of any milder air - so not sure where you get this milder interlude from. Winds look to continue from the E all of next week, off a very cold near continent - if anything, day time maxima may take a tumble in the south.

Very fascinating the low temps this morning, even in the south: -17.1 °C at RAF Benson in Oxfordshire; -16.3 °C at Woodford, NW England. Lowest recorded temp for England I think was -25°C at Shawbury, Shropshire in Dec 1981.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 00z models all agree that next week will continue to be cold or very cold with winds blowing in from a generally E'ly direction, maybe south of east, the only real question is how far north and east the scandi high will get but for england, wales it's a very cold and showery easterly flow with troughs pepping up the showers into longer spells of snow at times but depending on the positioning of the scandi high, parts of scotland, especially further north, could remain calm and sunny but with potential for record cold minima in scottish glens, -20 to -25c perhaps!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

If upper temps are too high at the time of any SW attack though, freezing rain rather than snow may result?

Edited by Yeti
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Excellent model output and some slight suggestion of what I said last night.

What we really make this cold spell special is if we have another reload with the HP moving towards Greenland with another surge of cold down the E flank. Well the UKMO is possibly suggesting this as are some of the other models.

Certainly little sign of anything milder.

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Posted
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL

Wind Chill

A few figures for you:

..0C air temp, 5mph wind feels like -3C

.-5C air temp, 10mph wind feels like -11C

-10C air temp, 15mph wind feels like -18C

-15C air temp, 20mph wind feels like -26C

-20C air temp, 25mph wind feels like -34C

-25C air temp, 30mph wind feels like -42C

'Raw' and 'bone chilling' are inadequate adjectives to describe the effects of wind-chill.

Low temperatures coupled with even moderate winds create another danger for the unprepared.

Expect to hear more talk of wind-chill in the media over the coming days.

ffO

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Cant see any respite from the cold in the model output for the forseeable future even if the 850 mbs temps will slowly moderate for a few days as the surface temps are extremely low here and over in the continent and as the air and surface winds will be blowing from an easterly direction over ice and snow it will be bitterly cold especially in the windier south of the Uk! Anyway talking of cold at my weather station its currently minus 12.3c ,exceptionally cold :lol: :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl

Just how long this real cold is going to last is certainly not certain yet-at least 7 possibly 10 days-

look at some of the overnight lows last night reported so far with most on low ground away from Scotland as well

-18C at Woodford

-15C at Manchester airport+Yeovilton, and Carlisle together as low level stations with Eskdalemuir also on -15C

There are 20 places reporting -10C or below this morning, most at low level!

In fact John, I must say well done to you.

I remember just a while back some people were doubting whether we could achieve the mins progged by the GFS but last night exactly showed that temps can fall even much below what the GFS is saying. I remember you quite clearly saying this, Well done! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

Cant see any respite from the cold in the model output for the forseeable future even if the 850 mbs temps will slowly moderate for a few days as the surface temps are extremely low here and over in the continent and as the air and surface winds will be blowing from an easterly direction over ice and snow it will be bitterly cold especially in the windier south of the Uk! Anyway talking of cold at my weather station its currently minus 12.3c ,exceptionally cold :lol: :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs845.gif

Windchill combined with snowfall/drifting withsub zero temperature is a rare combination for most on this forum.

Actually think the strongest wind speeds with be recorded at Warcop Range in Cumbria in the lee of the Pennines. In the 1987 easterly it recorded a gust of 74mph in sub zero temps.

Mark

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Posted
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl

Best not not to look at the 850mb temps projected as guide to ground temps though, they do rise on the operational next week (it looks like a mild outlier at the 850mb level into the low res), but at the surface, there's no sign of any milder air - so not sure where you get this milder interlude from. Winds look to continue from the E all of next week, off a very cold near continent - if anything, day time maxima may take a tumble in the south.Very fascinating the low temps this morning, even in the south: -17.1 °C at RAF Benson in Oxfordshire; -16.3 °C at Woodford, NW England. Lowest recorded temp for England I think was -25°C at Shawbury, Shropshire in Dec 1981.

I beg to differ with the point highlighted. It will still be very cold next week but I think the max temps would go above the freezing mark to 1C or 2C widely.

We will not have clear skies next week preventing the minimums getting too low. Instead, we will have a constant stream of cloud from the SE off the sea. Unfortunately, I believe there won't be much difference between the max and mins. I would suggest widely about a max of 1C and a min of 0C. Therefore, in my opinion, I think the situation over the next couple of days is the best to have the low temps especially due to the fact of the very low mins and so struggling to rise above freezing during the short daylight hours.

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Posted
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl
  • Location: 10mi NW Leeds 147m asl

Not sure if this is the right place to post so mods please move if appropriate.

I remember from the last couple of years that there was a thread on sea ice arounf Greenland and also in the Baltic. Does anyone know what the current status is for these areas and what, if any, effect this will have on weather patterns? (There I've managed to vaguely link it to the models :good: )

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Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL

Best not not to look at the 850mb temps projected as guide to ground temps though, they do rise on the operational next week (it looks like a mild outlier at the 850mb level into the low res), but at the surface, there's no sign of any milder air - so not sure where you get this milder interlude from. Winds look to continue from the E all of next week, off a very cold near continent - if anything, day time maxima may take a tumble in the south.

Very fascinating the low temps this morning, even in the south: -17.1 °C at RAF Benson in Oxfordshire; -16.3 °C at Woodford, NW England. Lowest recorded temp for England I think was -25°C at Shawbury, Shropshire in Dec 1981.

Hi Nick.

Sorry, should have specified the 'milder' interlude being on the 850's, not on the gound.

Milder being higher than we have prior to the period of the 13th, but still cold.

However, main concern is the rise closer to the -5oC mark. Perhaps some variations in the coming days.

Agree though on the ground temps, and admit, forgot to look at these. Cold, and getting colder, despite any other factor.

Edit - Nick. Just had a look at the GFS, and would interested though on your thoughts of the Dam Line H500.

At T+93, the 528 line starts getting cut off, despite the flow being good. Bar around T+252, we struggle to get good UK coverage again. Not sure if this is progged with the op run on the T2m, where it becomes an outlier (as per usual) in the low res, but would have thought that T+93 is still in the high-res output.

Obviously, in terms of the cold spell, the output this morning is fantastic. But snow potential still reduces on the op run, at least by a text book definition, and unfortunately I don't have access to H500 ensembles for the GFS (might help in determining whether it looks realistic in terms of the other members).

Edited by Shiny_Bottom_1
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

ref the low temps overnight

On Wx Online both Woodford(close by Manchester Airport) and Benson are being credited with -18C-Woodford at 0800 was on

-16C according to Met O data.

I'm sure the weather statisticians will know but a quick comment from me is that I cannot recall seeing two low level UK climat stations both recording night mins of -18C on the same night-anyone?

a key to why its so cold at so many places over England especially is if you look at the Extra 850mb temp chart for 00z it show a large area of England below -11C and an even larger area below -10C, along with fairly light winds for many and also fairly clear skies.

theory does work quite well sometimes!

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

Apparently. some amateur sites around Carlisle are recording -19C. Carlisle city centre was officially -14.5C at 7am. That, for a urban location is astonishing!

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

ref the low temps overnight

On Wx Online both Woodford(close by Manchester Airport) and Benson are being credited with -18C-Woodford at 0800 was on

-16C according to Met O data.

I'm sure the weather staisticians will know but a quick comment from me is that I cannot recall seeing two low level UK climat stations both recording night mins of -18C on the same night-anyone?

-17.6C at Woodford and could be a record for that station.

I can't recall Manchester Airport ever recording around -15C, -13.5C is the lowest I can recall during December 1981.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

yes Kevin, as they say 'I was there'-duty forecaster that night

Jodrell Bank reported -18C I think which I checked with the Met staff at Shawbury who has something similar I believe.

One other point ref my post above-take a look at the sat picc-clear skies were evident over the areas reporting these low temps.

re Woodford-it is of course a relatively new Met O climat station-having replaced Manchester Airport when CAA stopped meaningful observations to Met O Climat standard being made.

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

Looking at the forecast for Sunday into Monday, furthuer outbreaks of snow warned for the majority of the UK. Where will these be coming from? E'ly I would presume! Any more evidence to back up whats coming and will it be significant falls or just a dusting?

Cheers

Gee

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

Don't forget -15C also being recorded at Yeovilton. Just shows you what snowcover can do for our temps

Sorry off topic but what is the lowest ever temp for England

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