General Model Output Discussion

[nick sussex]

but not much longer after 144h nick.

The models are most definately going for a breakdown next week.

It might look that way but with that much cold over the UK you're more likely to see trough disruption sending shortwaves se under the block. I'll be back later but certainly don't expect the ECM to back the GFS. The UKMO does blow up that low but then backs off at 144hrs, follow the ECM, if that calls an end within the reliable timeframe then i'll believe it but I'm convinced it won't.

[andymusic]

I'm not totally convinced yet by this run - be interesting to see if the run is an outlier or not 1st and also to see if it verifies in subsequent gfs runs later today and tomorrow and of course let's see what the ecm 12z has to say as well

[derrylynne]

The GFS 1200 brings the atlantic and mild weather with it in big style from about middle of next week to the end of the run, still think there will be quite a bit of snow for some areas before the rain arrives, of course all this takes place in FI.

SS2

I would love this to come off but somehow the GFS is making this too easy. There is quite a bit with the second half the run that does not seem believable to me. Ok I am not an expert so others will be able to explain. But it seems to be far too progressive to me....

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS in indicating a breakdown starting in about 5 days time. Ok there will be snow on the edge but looking at it we can expect the Atlantic to rush in then and turn it much warmer. Be interesting what the pub run says:-)

lol ive gotta laugh im sorry plenty of its over posts even though some of the top posters on here have there very valid opions and i d take there opion over the gfs.

it to progressive infact its incredibly progressive its clear milder or sould i say mild than recently is going to happen,

but how mild will it get absolutely no chance of double figures 5c max maybe 8c.

something is afoot and i think the gfs model is trying to work out what it is,

so id say be very carefull and dont base your thoughts on only the gfs model.

as for the weekend event its looking good with snow for many so id take no notice of the rouge rain posts.

its very cold and its about to get colder over the weekend.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

GFS is out on its own with WLY breakdown T144. Bin it.

We have three paradigms here: Slow Thaw / Fast Thaw / Reload.

GFS wants to do the Fast Thaw. The only way you can get a Fast Thaw as things are set up is with an Atlantic low mincing the block and whipping tropical air from the SW. If we've learned anything about this winter and GFS, it's not going to happen: the low will be more south than progged and less powerful. There is no support for Fast Thaw.

Slow Thaw is the main alternative from the Met O/ECM/GEM/NOGAPS. This solution will be nearer the mark at T144 with the large Scandi-Icelandic block - but where on from the Scandi-Iceland high? Do we get gradual breakdown from a succession of lows, each time moving the UK snow line further inland and to altitude, or a Reload as the high moves North West to Greenland?

Reload doesn't yet have ECM model support but GFS this morning toyed with the idea. GP I think is thinking about a reload.

Watch this space!

Definitely no support for Fast Thaw next Wednesday, although very possible coastal regions may lose snow - even today we lost snow on roofs in sun. Bare tiles.

[warrenb]

Well split PV throughout the entire GFS run and AO and NAO in the bucket I just can't see what the GFS is doing.

[mushymanrob]

I've just noticed that on BBC 24 just now it had headline saying the expect the cold to last only 6 more days.

Looks like they are taking the GFS as God.

not quite...they said at least 6 days....

It would be plausible if it was another major global model showing it, the gfs IMO is never to be trusted with European blocking, the ukmo disagrees with it at 144hrs by keeping the uk still cold at that point.

ok thanks... ive not seen the ukmo @ 144...

[rich1]

Finally got my power bck on...EDF, more What Da F***

anyway, looking at the models, think the GFS is maybe getting a bit over excited too early but not too bothered by a breakdown now, done pretty well here out of the spell

sense though its not quite finished with us and wont gve up that easily on us. I feel a slow rise in temperatures next week is what we may be looking at

still a lot of uncertainty though

[Richie V]

lol ive gotta laugh im sorry plenty of its over posts even though some of the top posters on here have there very valid opions and i d take there opion over the gfs.

it to progressive infact its incredibly progressive its clear milder or sould i say mild than recently is going to happen,

but how mild will it get absolutely no chance of double figures 5c max maybe 8c.

something is afoot and i think the gfs model is trying to work out what it is,

so id say be very carefull and dont base your thoughts on only the gfs model.

as for the weekend event its looking good with snow for many so id take no notice of the rouge rain posts.

its very cold and its about to get colder over the weekend.

I totally agree. Theres a part of me that wants the cold spell to continue (looks pretty n all that) but I could really be doing with the atlantic blasting in as soon as possible. I build luxury high end high power loudspeakers and with these temps the adhesives don't set and veneering and poly finishing of cabinets is an absolute no no. This can't be done in the house as I would gas everyone in seconds with the poly resins. I have orders stacking up now and will soon start making me loose many thousands of pounds. BRING IN THE BLOWTORCH SW'lys

[Nick B]

GFS is out on its own with WLY breakdown T144. Bin it.

We have three paradigms here: Slow Thaw / Fast Thaw / Reload.

GFS wants to do the Fast Thaw. The only way you can get a Fast Thaw as things are set up is with an Atlantic low mincing the block and whipping tropical air from the SW. If we've learned anything about this winter and GFS, it's not going to happen: the low will be more south than progged and less powerful. There is no support for Fast Thaw.

Slow Thaw is the main alternative from the Met O/ECM/GEM/NOGAPS. This solution will be nearer the mark at T144 with the large Scandi-Icelandic block - but where on from the Scandi-Iceland high? Do we get gradual breakdown from a succession of lows, each time moving the UK snow line further inland and to altitude, or a Reload as the high moves North West to Greenland?

Reload doesn't yet have ECM model support but GFS this morning toyed with the idea. GP I think is thinking about a reload.

Watch this space!

Definitely no support for Fast Thaw next Wednesday, although very possible coastal regions may lose snow - even today we lost snow on roofs in sun. Bare tiles.

Excellent post. Good discussion.

[cooling climate]

The GFS has not modeled this cold spell very well at all and has been chasing the European

models tails since the end of last week.

This is not always the case but during this particular cold spell with a much more continental flavour

I think it is a much safer option to stick with our own European models.

The freeze is here to stay for a long time yet I feel.

[ANYWEATHER]

As noted at some point earlier. if you would of took the gfs as gospel in its luniticical/fantastical output the Winter would of ended weeks ago!!

[MR EXTREMES]

Well split PV throughout the entire GFS run and AO and NAO in the bucket I just can't see what the GFS is doing.

very good post.

maybe the mjo is on the move causing gfs complications.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Finally got my power bck on...EDF, more What Da F***

anyway, looking at the models, think the GFS is maybe getting a bit over excited too early but not too bothered by a breakdown now, done pretty well here out of the spell

sense though its not quite finished with us and wont gve up that easily on us. I feel a slow rise in temperatures next week is what we may be looking at

still a lot of uncertainty though

There are only two realistic evolutions IMO - slow breakdown, and reload.

12z ECM going to be important - let's see if it is picking up signs of a reload. It's definitely no going to show a wrecking ball low blasting the block to smitherines in a few days. Too well established, too much entrenched cold.

Edited January 7, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[bluearmy]

John Hammond talking about the cold releasing its grip next week.

I think this evenings ecm might show the end maybe.

mm - i recall cold spells of the 70's and early 80's when that was also forecast at a couple of days notice. never happened the first time though. i hope they are going to be cautious aboput calling the breakdown. they could do without too much more egg on their faces.

meteociel too slow to see updated charts. there was enough spread on the ecm ens for london from the 00z to remain uncertain with the mean close to zero throughout.

[Nick F]

So, the broad theme from tonight's UKMO and GFS for mid-week next week is an attack from the Atlantic with milder air trying to nudge in from the SW but cold air in place over UK will put up a battle. UKMO looks more likely IMO than GFS in that the trough/low arriving to the SW stalls with the low held back - the trough would eventually disrupt with low pressure sliding E over the continent with the block to the northeast maintaining the status quo with the cold easterly or southeasterly feed continuing.

[derrylynne]

Just looked at the fax charts and ukmet and it seems they agree with the gfs. I would put my money on the breakdown next week. Personally be nice to get some warmer weather back and save on the heating bills....

[Spurry]

Looks like the death Knell for the cold weather if the 12z GFS is to be believed , can't believe the difference between the 06z and the 12z...why would 2 runs be so different

[Iceberg]

And the number of 00Z ECM ensembles that agreed with GFS ops run at 144 is.......0 out of 50. enough said IMO

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Must be the first time in a long that the GFS max temp chart doesn't have anywhere in the UK below 0 in the high resolution. Judging by most posts it is a load of rubbish, but could the end be in sight?

[Rollo]

If my memory serves me rightly the GFS was the first to call this cold spell but since then has performed as badly as I can remember.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

If my memory serves me rightly the GFS was the first to call this cold spell but since then has performed as badly as I can remember.

Has it been the first to call the reload? 06z GFS ensembles shows two members going for a similar reload solution... GFS spots trend, will ECM run with it?

[igloo]

Looks like the death Knell for the cold weather if the 12z GFS is to be believed , can't believe the difference between the 06z and the 12z...why would 2 runs be so different

thats the problem with this model the difference between each run is sometimes huge even at +144 you cant belive anything after +96 for the past 3 weeks any way

[weather eater]

John Hammond talking about the cold releasing its grip next week.

I think this evenings ecm might show the end maybe.

I rather think he may be basing that on the general trend evident on all the models for slightly less cold, as the easterlies turn more South Easterly, rather than one GFS run. The GFS is doing what it normally does once it gets into low resolution, the 12z has a warm up, whereas the 06z was life in the freezer. Every one is free to believe which of those runs is the most likely, if either, but I doubt whether the six hour later data that separates the 12z from the 06z is really so much different as to make the 12z the more plausible.

[johnholmes]

Not true Derry

What the Fax charts show is the upper air starting to warm out, hence the 'upper' warm font shown on 1 or 2 of them, then the main frontal zone is show on the T+120 as pretty well along the south coast.Nick F makes similar comment in his blog and is correct.

This has been, already, the longest and coldest spell over much of the country for perhaps 20+ years.

Once really cold air gets settled, believe me, its unlikely that the first Atlantic push will bring milder, let alone, 'blow torch' air rushing over the UK.

It may well make it into some SW'ern coastal areas, might, but as to the end of the cold spell by Wednesday-no chance.

What happens beyond it is very much up in the air in my view.

The forecast for the start into the middle of next week is a forecasters, just about, worst nightmare.

Very cold surface air, only slowly being modified with moist warm air over the top. How far, will any genuinely mild air get at the surface, will it snow, will it be freezing rain, how much, for how long, and will the cold push the mild back again.

Like I say a forecasters nightmare after the relatively easy bit of the past 4-5 days!

oh and for those 'looks like the end of the cold spell' comments based on comparing 06-12z or any other 2 consecutive runs - I no longer make comment about those of you that do that.

tears and toys out of prams so many many times over the past years as well!

Edited January 7, 2010 by johnholmes