North West Cold Spell Discussion

[Methuselah]

Here goes, folks!

Old thread:

[HotCuppa]

<br>The Met Ofiice warnings make me laugh-it was only a couple of hours ago they had a heavy snow advisory out for 90% of southern Uk (the northern border being South of our region)Now theyv'e changed their minds and taken most of them off. I know things can change fast-but if that's the case, why bother with the stupid advisories in the first place-complete waste of time and effort.<br>

The problem is they have to place those warnings or advisories to cover themselves imagine the outcry if they didnt place the advisories or warnings. The criteria for our chances is under their threshold to issue an advisory.

Advisories are 60% for moderate chance and 80% for a warning..100% is supposed to be extreme warning. If we fall at the 59% margin we are not covered by the advisory. (However that said, they should take a leaf out of the National Weather Service and issue Watches which in this case would be from around 40/60%) Expect them to upgrade the advisories at any time, not saying we'll fall into that category. I don't really know what our chances are, possibly around 40/50% though I wouldnt be surprised to see the snow hit the south of the region. If north wales is hit you can guarantee we will be..so we'll have to see.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Does anyone know what the lowest temperature recorded at Liverpool Airport last night was? I know they where recording -7C at midnight when I went to bed but what was thier lowest? Did they make -9 or -10?

Luke

[SP1986]

-8.8C I think..

[martinj2]

The problem is they have to place those warnings or advisories to cover themselves imagine the outcry if they didnt place the advisories or warnings. The criteria for our chances is under their threshold to issue an advisory.

Advisories are 60% for moderate chance and 80% for a warning..100% is supposed to be extreme warning. If we fall at the 59% margin we are not covered by the advisory. (However that said, they should take a leaf out of the National Weather Service and issue Watches which in this case would be from around 40/60%) Expect them to upgrade the advisories at any time, not saying we'll fall into that category. I don't really know what our chances are, possibly around 40/50% though I wouldnt be surprised to see the snow hit the south of the region. If north wales is hit you can guarantee we will be..so we'll have to see.

Yeah-true, but I just think they have a problem with crying Wolf too often!

[Never snows where i live]

To be honest regarding snow chances... the wirral won't get any more in my opinion. The event recently only happens in my neck of the woods not that often. The north easterly feed gets eaten up by the pennines and wasn't the recent event from a north westerly?

If i'm wrong then so be it but i can't see it happening.

[V for Very Cold]

Afternoon everyone - been uploading more pics to my gallery if anyone is interested

Been watching the forecasts today ebb and flow like the tide with snow/no snow/warning/advisory/all clear so I really don;t think there can be much danger ofanything serious over the next few days unless there is a sudden change . Still, this area has falls forecast by 1 or more service for the next 72 hours, so fingers crossed we will get to see some new falls (despite the beautiful clear blue sky lol)

[Iceaxecrampon]

Looks like E Yorks and Leeds in particular are in for a pasting with that streamer - winds NE no chance of anything for us.

[HotCuppa]

Beeb interactive now has snow over our region as it advances further north on Sunday afternoon. It starts off with the development on sat thro sun morning as it progresses it will push into the midlands and by afternoon and evening its sitting over our region. It will prolly be very light.

Regarding the advisories I agree with crying wolf too many times..however I think we'll see an upgrade at some stage within the next 24 hours.

[V for Very Cold]

Looks like E Yorks and Leeds in particular are in for a pasting with that streamer - winds NE no chance of anything for us.

anychance with will head further west you know , just past the pennines just hoping

[SP1986]

If we dont get the cloud/showers then were going to get some seriously low temperatures tonight, much much lower than anything in the past two nights. It's already -2.8C here which I believe might be colder than it was at this time yesterday so at least one night this week, -10C has to be broken, there's no question.. the strong easterly winds look like missing our region so with nothing to stir the air, I think more records will be broken, starting with tonight

[HotCuppa]

anychance with will head further west you know , just past the pennines just hoping

Its sliding its way down the east side of the pennines and fizzing out around nottingham

If we dont get the cloud/showers then were going to get some seriously low temperatures tonight, much much lower than anything in the past two nights. It's already -2.8C here which I believe might be colder than it was at this time yesterday so at least one night this week, -10C has to be broken, there's no question.. the strong easterly winds look like missing our region so with nothing to stir the air, I think more records will be broken, starting with tonight

I have this feeling inversion will once again play a part but you never know.

Around the south of the region, temps are quite widely between -1.5 to -1.9C, lower ground its slightly warmer.

Garston as the coldest place in Liverpool is only -1.3C

[SP1986]

The sunset is even better than last night!

[HotCuppa]

Just thought Id better say its actually complete wall to wall cloud here..who knows maybe some localized snow showers? we had a very brief shower around 1ish today..lasted about 5 mins, light powdery snow. (non blowing snow) no wind today at all.

[SP1986]

wal to wall cloud, absolutely clear, fast heading towards the coldest night the winter so far, -3.4C, I reckon by midnight we'll be abour -8C here if not lower, as I cannot see the cloud building from the east I reckon it will melt away over the Pennines...

[HotCuppa]

wal to wall cloud, absolutely clear, fast heading towards the coldest night the winter so far, -3.4C, I reckon by midnight we'll be abour -8C here if not lower, as I cannot see the cloud building from the east I reckon it will melt away over the Pennines...

Problem is, this cloud isn't wanting to go anywhere at the moment, certainly holding temps up quite a bit compared to where you are.

[SP1986]

I cant see any cloud to the east at all?

[Backtrack]

Just thought Id better say its actually complete wall to wall cloud here..who knows maybe some localized snow showers? we had a very brief shower around 1ish today..lasted about 5 mins, light powdery snow. (non blowing snow) no wind today at all.

CLOUD?! what the hell?

It's crystal clear here and has been all day, this cloud cant of missed me, you're about 5 miles to my east, and a snowshower....?

It's been wall to wall sunshine all day and is almost -3c!

[HotCuppa]

I cant see any cloud to the east at all?

Liverpool airport is reporting partly cloudy(fair) here its just dark grey clouds..its probably localized

[Liam J]

todays high -2.8c

current temp -4.6c and falling fast! DP -7

met office NW england forecast mentions snow over cumbria tomorrow, if it clouds over there will be not so severe temps tonight as if it stays clear now all night it will be extremely cold!!

[HotCuppa]

CLOUD?! what the hell?

It's crystal clear here and has been all day, this cloud cant of missed me, you're about 5 miles to my east, and a snowshower....?

It's been wall to wall sunshine all day and is almost -3c!

its cloudy here and around lunch time just after we had a very brief snow shower..and very light powdery it lasted for a max of about 5 mins. Skies cleared but since around 4ish they have gotten cloudy

[Backtrack]

its cloudy here and around lunch time just after we had a very brief snow shower..and very light powdery it lasted for a max of about 5 mins. Skies cleared but since around 4ish they have gotten cloudy

Well you can't get any more localized than that.

-3.0c and dropping.

[HotCuppa]

Well you can't get any more localized than that.

-3.0c and dropping.

Liverpool airport is reporting -1C which has for a long while

Garston is only -1.5C

Both places last night where below -4 at this point of time.

importantly i dont know if your area is still, but we have some wind here blowing at about 12mph from the NNW

[SP1986]

Unlike the last few night the temperature here is unlikely to stall due to clear skies and no wind off the sea, which is very unusual, usually it stops falling just after dark, but tonight I think it'll plummet right towards dawn ish.

Im much more confident tonight of a crazy temperature like -10 ahem, that the nights previous.

ps already -4.0C the lowest its ever been at this time of the day.

[HotCuppa]

Unlike the last few night the temperature here is unlikely to stall due to clear skies and no wind off the sea, which is very unusual, usually it stops falling just after dark, but tonight I think it'll plummet right towards dawn ish.

Im much more confident tonight of a crazy temperature like -10 ahem, that the nights previous.

ps already -4.0C the lowest its ever been at this time of the day.

My Temp -3.6C and falling very slowly, id be surprised if we cracked -6C tonight with the way things are going.

-------------------------------------

Garston -1.6C

Liverpool Airport -1C

Positively tropical lol

Just checked the meto forecast for sunday, light snow for the south of the region from what I can see.

Sunday Liverpool light snow, afternoon light snow and overnight snow showers, whilst runcorn has light snow from sunday through monday morning.

Manchester Sunday night Heavy snow.