General Model Output Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

infact early next week the likes of Newcastle could see max temps around 3-4C.

Blimey, temperatures only 3c below normal...big warm-up!

Low pressure on the 18z undercutting the high..let the easterlys begin once again.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[PersianPaladin]

Dewpoints and thicknesses should remain conducive for snow away from immediate coastal fringes - even if temps reach 2-3C inland.

Edited January 9, 2010 by PersianPaladin

[Optimus Prime]

Dewpoints and thicknesses should remain conducive for snow away from immediate coastal fringes - even if temps reach 2-3C inland.

Which they won't. Snowcover, very cold ground and winds still from the continent. I don't think any areas in mainland England will reach 3c for a long time yet.

I'm hoping next winter will return the mild muck making people wished they hadn't moaned about this spell.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Cloud 10]

Interesting 18z up to +120hrs,keep an eye on that cold pool to the northeast for future runs.

[The PIT]

No end in sight for sometime if this verifies:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

True but this wednesday with higher uppers freezing rain widespread over central areas?????

[Optimus Prime]

True but this wednesday with higher uppers freezing rain widespread over central areas?????

Doubt it, never heard of freezing rain from an Easterly.

[dave79]

I doubt it, I've only ever seen freezing rain once despite it being talked about continously.

this is freezing rain

[Optimus Prime]

this is freezing rain

That's an extreme case of freezing rain. Most freezing rain would cover the surface is maybe half a cm of ice causing problems as usual on the roads but nothing more.

[butler_son]

That's an extreme case of freezing rain. Most freezing rain would cover the surface is maybe half a cm of ice causing problems as usual on the roads but nothing more.

We had that in Dorset in December - rain fell and froze on contact, leaving roads covered in a film of sheet ice. Led to a 40 car pile up.

Looking at the models, although the synoptics look great, the feed isn't exactly frigid on some - surely we need retrogression to Greenland to bring in some more Arctic air to tap into?

[Paul]

Can we stick to the models please folks

[The PIT]

Can we stick to the models please folks

We are but some seem to be discounting freezing rain due to wind direction?????

Am I right thinking freezing rain may happen due to the increase in the 850's temp????

[igloo]

it looks like by the the end of the week the atlantic finally after 2-3 attempts barges its way through as more experienced members have said it would take 2-3 attempts to break through

[derrylynne]

My feeling is the pub run is over done as usual with the warm air getting in. I doubt if it will - apart from far southern areas, and the coasts. This could be a classic snowfall of old - and the cold air will keep in place. I would go by the ecm rather than the gfs as that has been more reliable. That is of course if the system is as far into the UK as forecast on the charts. It maybe further south. At the least it will be a glancing blow before going along the channel to France is my feelings on what is shown..

[johnholmes]

Well, having had a look round GFS/Extra charts along with UK Met and NAE with what I can surmise, so to speak, looking at the ECMWF, from tomorrow onwards is developing into a totally fascinating looking series of charts from the models.

GFS does seem to have tended to move to the idea EC and Met have had, more or less all along, of the isobars being more east than south. This obviously has a fairly large effect on what temperature the low level air is going to have.

Snow is pretty certain to fall on any high ground, even the Moors of the south west through tomorrow and into Monday it would seem to me. The possible doubt is how much precipitation actually falls. That, as I say countless times, is something that is best left until the last. So the 00z run in the morning should be what will give the best indication, from the two models, Met and GFS, of how much they are suggesting. What is much more difficult is the extent of any snow as the bitterly cold air at around 850mb is replaced and how quickly for what falls on the low ground. To me I would think that coastal areas, both in the south, SW and with the onshore wind down the eastern side can expect no more than sleety rain, at the very best wet snow for a time. Then there is the problem of how much might fall at low levels, say 50+ miles from the coast.

I'm quite happy not to have to make any forecast decisions about this lot. Nor for what may follow 24-48 hours later.

Makes superb model watching though I have to say.

I do wish I could have a view over the senior man's shoulder or have access to his thoughts like Ian F has-oh yes.

We are but some seem to be discounting freezing rain due to wind direction?????

Am I right thinking freezing rain may happen due to the increase in the 850's temp????

by and large yes

the critical issue is how cold is the bottom 2-3000ft and even more so for the ground to be below zero C when it falls.

[Mondy]

Here it is - a Behemoth of an LP takes advantage of "slack" high pressure over the N.Sea, and barrels down.

Welcome back Atlantic !

[Guest FireStorm]

Here it is - a Behemoth of an LP takes advantage of "slack" high pressure over the N.Sea, and barrels down.

Welcome back Atlantic !

Worth keeping an eye on certainly but with the confusion at 24-48 so much will change.

BFTP did mention earlier a "windstorm" would be the one that breaks through the cold air, im guessing that could be it

[West is Best]

Here it is - a Behemoth of an LP takes advantage of "slack" high pressure over the N.Sea, and barrels down.

Welcome back Atlantic !

Ya, but if I had a pound for everytime the GFS showed a rampant Atlantic at T240 Mondy I'd be a rich man. It's almost the GFS default that out past the T200's it will show a westerly flow.

Might still happen!

Edited January 9, 2010 by West is Best

[Bristawl Si]

Worth keeping an eye on certainly but with the confusion at 24-48 so much will change.

BFTP did mention earlier a "windstorm" would be the one that breaks through the cold air, im guessing that could be it

It's more than a week away!!

Possible fun and games to come yet this week

[SMU]

I think a lot of melodrama tonight -

Its going to be pretty a dry & very cold week?- A lot of discussion about classic battles, when infact I think the reality will be some light sleet & snow in the south / SW which has a LOW chance of making inroads into the mainland of the south-

the bulk of the UK stays dry with frost redeveloping, once we get to day 5 / 6 I suspect we still have the cold surface air,however by then we have lost the complimentary very cold uppers.

If you take the ECM + UKMO & squeeze out the PPN to the SW at 72 then your essentially looking at a very dry 10 days with no more snow after tomorrow + early mon & a very slow gentle thaw-

S

[bennytes]

Ya, but if I had a pound for everytime the GFS showed a rampant Atlantic at T240 Mondy I'd be a rich man. It's almost the GFS default that out past the T200's it will show a westerly flow.

Might still happen!

yes, but THIS time we really need some mild air to win the battle. OK, I'm resigned to losing money now, being a self employed courier, and I may as well enjoy the event, but ANY sign of mild is welcome to me! this is a pretty chart to me, even if it is in FI

sorry to be off topic mods, but i am desperate for some HOPE in these charts!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Latest faxes.

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Cold hanging in there.

Regards,

Tom.

[The PIT]

I think a lot of melodrama tonight -

Its going to be pretty a dry & very cold week?- A lot of discussion about classic battles, when infact I think the reality will be some light sleet & snow in the south / SW which has a LOW chance of making inroads into the mainland of the south-

the bulk of the UK stays dry with frost redeveloping, once we get to day 5 / 6 I suspect we still have the cold surface air,however by then we have lost the complimentary very cold uppers.

If you take the ECM + UKMO & squeeze out the PPN to the SW at 72 then your essentially looking at a very dry 10 days with no more snow after tomorrow + early mon & a very slow gentle thaw-

S

So what you're basically saying is the normal even larger teapot whimping out of a cold spell.

[rich1]

I think a lot of melodrama tonight -

Its going to be pretty a dry & very cold week?- A lot of discussion about classic battles, when infact I think the reality will be some light sleet & snow in the south / SW which has a LOW chance of making inroads into the mainland of the south-

the bulk of the UK stays dry with frost redeveloping, once we get to day 5 / 6 I suspect we still have the cold surface air,however by then we have lost the complimentary very cold uppers.

If you take the ECM + UKMO & squeeze out the PPN to the SW at 72 then your essentially looking at a very dry 10 days with no more snow after tomorrow + early mon & a very slow gentle thaw-

S

could get a very low january CET out of this...its a holy grail of sorts these days

generally am happy with the trend of the day

Im looking to get as many days with snow on the ground as possible...11 days and counting so far this winter, this run would keep most of it for a good while

been a very good winter so far, may end up a properly severe one

Edited January 9, 2010 by rich1

[Mondy]

Latest faxes.

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Cold hanging in there.

Regards,

Tom.

Excellent selection of charts. God, it really is a battle out there. When did the Atlantic last have such a hard time?

*Memo to S.Murr - please try not mention the word "melodrama" when replying, it's kinda ironic you say that (from an outsiders POV )

[Duane S.]

We had that in Dorset in December - rain fell and froze on contact, leaving roads covered in a film of sheet ice. Led to a 40 car pile up.

Looking at the models, although the synoptics look great, the feed isn't exactly frigid on some - surely we need retrogression to Greenland to bring in some more Arctic air to tap into?

I was 30 seconds behind the pileup on the Tolpuddle bypass!! I have NEVER driven in conditions even close to that in my life!! Rain was falling and freezing on impact with my windscreen, incredible and not something I wish to repeat in a hurry!