General Model Output Discussion

[snowingman]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

[mesocyclone]

How well could freezing rain be forecast??

I've seen it once and it is surreal. If that came down on what is already laying there would be so many accidents it doesn't bare thinking about.

Edited January 9, 2010 by mesocyclone

[Snowyowl9]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

What a strange comment,basically the cold will win out from the scandi high

and the attacking low tuesday won`t quite make it in, still plenty of wind to drift the lying snow.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn16817.png

Edited January 9, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[derrylynne]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

Explain why you think what you do? You have never lived through these kind of winters and looked at the archives or you may have another opinion. The cold will not shift that easily. Don't forget either that the GFS is programmed for 'modern winters' and is always too keen to bring back a mild Atlantic. Have you looked at the Ecm and other charts?

[Paul White.]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

Hi is this post from your own point of view? for your area perhaps. I have just looked at the GFS 18z and it shows me cold temps at the surface for the next 5 days, with a slight warm up towards next weekend but only returning to average january temps. This has been a remarkable spell of cold weather and I can see us all in the future winters posting charts in deepest parts of FI with slogans like "Jan 2010 anyone" But anyhow the models are showing for where I live in the Huddersfield area that headlines of (Cold spell is OVER!!!) are in fact unfounded at the moment and they show that we have more snow forcast for the next 2 days or so. less we forget its been a cracking winter thus far

Paul

[Craigers]

Garbage post of the night!

ive got admit and this is off topic but when people see a break down on the models they think its all over! this year is very different as these are classic winter weather patterns and thats why the models havnt been handling the situation that well. ECM could easily bring another reload! and if the block holds then that could well be the case

Edited January 9, 2010 by Craigers

[rich1]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

may be a slow thaw in some places but the models seem to be backing away from a breakdown all the time...

[MP-R]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

Well that's a bit of a thoughtless, extreme comment. Besides the fact that I wouldn't normally wear a tee-shirt and a raincoat during winter, none of these charts resemble anything mild or even average for the time of year !? :

http://www.wzkarten2.de/pics/Rtavn1817.png

http://www.wzkarten2.de/pics/Rtavn4217.png

http://www.wzkarten2.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png

http://www.wzkarten2.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png

I'm not sure where you are sourcing your information from and I can't see where you may be basing your post from frustration from either. Am I missing something here?

[derrylynne]

Think you've got it spot on. Thankfully someone can see the wood for the trees can call it like it is.

Could be a lot of egg on faces come next week.lol

[Paul White.]

I have just looked at the GFS Max temp charts and I had to wait until it got to 192hrs for it to show the temps here in Huddersfield to get above freezing.

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cold spell is OVER!!!

snow this week is over exaggerated and limited to a small amount on the highest hills early in week

By next weekend we will be looking forward to wearing our normal winter gear - t-shirts and raincoats!!

GFS has nailed this cold spell, the biggest downgrade in the past 4 weeks - and only at 3 days... don't be telling me 3 days is fantasy land, these charts have been hinting at this for 4 days now

The question is - when will the chaps on the tv actual say - milder weather on the way!!

bit of an anticlimax really, especially all the forecasted snow this week,... out with a wimper

Yes some fun and games to come over coming week to 10 days. The cold won't go away quickly, and there will IMO be precip upgrades. Lovely ECM tonight coming well into my thoughts as mentioned by Frosty. UKMO if extended would follow the ECM, 18z GFS in FI is utterly all overt the place..I have binned it.

BFTP

[Craigers]

Yes some fun and games to come over coming week to 10 days. The cold won't go away quickly, and there will IMO be precip upgrades. Lovely ECM tonight coming well into my thoughts as mentioned by Frosty. UKMO if extended would follow the ECM, 18z GFS in FI is utterly all overt the place..I have binned it.

BFTP

totally agree with you and if it holds with the ECM im sure a cold blast will come in weeks time?

[grab my graupel]

Can we move on please folks? Snowingman has given his interpretation of the models, so let's just carry on now. There's lots of interesting model output to discuss

Brian

[Magadan]

This is a cold winter, not a mere "cold snap" and I'm glad people are starting to see the error of the models' ways. Look at how this thing is set up across the entire northern hemisphere, look at the bigger picture re the sun and adjust expectations accordingly, rather than deferring to models developed over 20 years or so of mild winters.

[Snow Queen one]

We have had a very good spell of weather and much more to come if the charts are predicting a breakdown then let the battle lines commence and let's see where gets the huge dumpings of snow.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snow Queen one

[Typhoon John]

ECM still looks decent this morning, similar to the 12z.

While the GFS 00z gets itself in a bit of a mess in the middle it gets there in the end with the monster HP pushing from Scandi.

UKMO OK.

[Iceberg]

No sign of a breakdown on the ECM, Or even a chance of a breakdown tbh.

The Lows next week have no choice but to go under the block, the block then holds enough, due to the undercutting lows to last through until the 180 mark, between 180 and 216 we have some upper WAA moving north over Iceland, from here as the 240 chart shows the high moves further west to the north of us, keeping us a cold easterly.

Meanwhile for us a new cold pool is dragged up from the SE with -10's and 520 thicknesses.

No real thaw in sight and it would be difficult to argue against what the ECM is showing.

[Terminal Moraine]

GFS definitely seems keener on bringing in milder weather for a few days after the 16th than do the other models.

Friday seems to be the day where things hang in the balance with ECM and a few of the lesser models coming down on the side of the Scandinavian block rebuilding but GFS taking the mild option at this point, only to build the block again by the middle of the following week. It has to be said though that the operational run is one of the coldest members at this point in the run, though not without support.

The Met' Office model doesn't quite go out far enough to determine which side of the fence it will come down on after Friday.

[Frosty.]

ECM still looks decent this morning, similar to the 12z.

While the GFS 00z gets itself in a bit of a mess in the middle it gets there in the end with the monster HP pushing from Scandi.

UKMO OK.

Agreed, the gfs is trying desperately to bring less cold air across the uk by the end of the week with winds becoming SSE'ly so the cold air is mixed out somewhat although it never becomes mild and would still feel cold in the strong winds but there would be a steady thaw if this happened, it then pushes the high in from the east and kinks the winds back into the east but I much prefer the ecm 00z which maintains the cold continental feed throughout so we would avoid that horrible slushy thawing out process the gfs indicates.

[tinybill]

morning all the break down looks like its 13 Jan were some going to plenty of the white stuff, deep in F1 are next worry could be floods as there could be a lot of heavy rain coming

[Great Plum]

Morning everyone,

not a thread I normally post much in but here goes...

the weather in the SE has not been as forecast, that whilst the upper air warm front has gone over us, it is not producing snow but sleet and temps ate quite widely above freezing. Now, if we can warm up from the east, surely our 'cold block' is not going to take much shifting from the west... I've had a look at the models and whilst I am no expert, I can see that the low pressures are predicted to find this difficult. How will our unpredicted and slight warm up affect the models and forecast today I wonder?

[West is Best]

All 3 models really bring a southerly feed of sorts. Huge difference between uppers and projected ground temps. So a cold southerly?! Looks to me on balance as if the breakdown is coming.

Snowing heavily here, which it has been for some time.

Edited January 10, 2010 by West is Best

[KTtom]

Morning everyone,

not a thread I normally post much in but here goes...

the weather in the SE has not been as forecast, that whilst the upper air warm front has gone over us, it is not producing snow but sleet and temps ate quite widely above freezing. Now, if we can warm up from the east, surely our 'cold block' is not going to take much shifting from the west... I've had a look at the models and whilst I am no expert, I can see that the low pressures are predicted to find this difficult. How will our unpredicted and slight warm up affect the models and forecast today I wonder?

Reading through some of the regional threads it looks like the thaw is well and truly on as temps have already risen a couple of degrees above freezing!

The fax for Wednesday (link below) shows much milder westerlies for the south western quater although no doubt there will be snow on the eastern flank of the front.

Still, with all the snow in some areas I guess a gradual thaw over the next few days is better than a suddern warm up.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Edited January 10, 2010 by KTtom

[Great Plum]

Yes indeed, this thaw (which I thought, looking at the models wasn't going to be until mid week at the earliest) seems to be happening now!

[Weather-history]

Yes indeed, this thaw (which I thought, looking at the models wasn't going to be until mid week at the earliest) seems to be happening now!

Bit of a misconception when people use the term "thaw", you can have a thaw without it actually getting mild ie its still cold ie say 2C to 3C but a slow thaw.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Mr_Data