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General Model Output Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Has Blast published any papers on his findings? "As someone who has watched winters on netweather now for 6 years BFTP"

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

RJS may kill me but I am close to giving 'cold' lovers a potential dream Feb forecast....but mid Jan to confirm :shok:

BFTP

It better get milder last 10-14days of this month,a mild break then back to cold for

february would be ideal.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

They have increased a little since this morning, but also decreased a little since yesterday evening. The GFS suggests the cold spell hanging on in the north (albeit with a slow thaw near east-facing coasts) until into next weekend, but for the southern half of England it turns milder by Thursday. Not sure how far north the milder air would get on the ECM. In contrast the earlier GFS 12Z run had the milder air getting no further than the south coast.

For the cold to continue much beyond next week I think we're going to need some kind of general pressure rise to the north- a retrogression over towards Greenland would be the surest bet (although not supported by the models at this stage). Some runs have suggested that if we do get the high ridging back across to our north it may pull in colder air from the east again, the GFS 12Z, and some of the lesser models, were suggesting -10C 850hPa values returning towards the end of next week with a likely return of the theme of sunshine and snow showers for eastern districts.

But if the high stays out east, while we'll have a battle between mild and cold next week with the boundary between mild and cold airmasses very much up in the air (FI really does start at around T+96 as Nick F rightly said earlier), chances are the Atlantic will get us second time around during the week after.

Cheers for that TWS - I'd say maybe a slow breakdown (like other have said) from the South west is still the best bet with maybe 2 attampts from the atlantic but maybe not before some major snowfall in central and at first South western areas. I also fancy it's not going to bringing in mild south westerlies either but just less cold conditions possibly with a linking azores HP to Scandy HP thereafter as the models were predicting this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

So we have the breakdown. Touche those that were dismissed a couple of days ago.

Has the fat lady sung, as the song says it aint over til its over, furthermore the breakdown is way out in FI and maybe there will be 2 feet of snow 2 shift first.

I think I take a look at the GFS 850's first though b4 my foot is put in my mouth.

Gut feeling impression only here.

STORMBOY

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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl

So we have the breakdown. Touche those that were dismissed a couple of days ago.

Possibly but some of the experienced people on here have been saying its up in the air with the South Westerlies needing more than one attempt to make it - and even if they do the chance of very heavy snow for Ireland and the SW - which is now being referenced in the national forecasts.

As ever more model runs required and lets get the weekend out of the way - looking like heavy snow for Kent, Sussex and Essex

Edited by Vesuvius
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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Might get a nice dumping of snow in the south east and west through this weekend - but the mixing will happen. Milder air cometh.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Cheers for that TWS - I'd say maybe a slow breakdown (like other have said) from the South west is still the best bet with maybe 2 attampts from the atlantic but maybe not before some major snowfall in central and at first South western areas. I also fancy it's not going to bringing in mild south westerlies either but just less cold conditions possibly with a linking azores HP to Scandy HP thereafter as the models were predicting this morning.

Well from the nine day wetter panel it would appear easterly or southeasterly winds would be the feature up until Friday so nothing mild, perhaps only less cold and in the southernmost counties then Friday leaves us with a sort of no-man's land setup:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

Then is this high pressure what you were suggesting could move north and link with the Scandi high? If that's the case then no real attack from the west or southwest at all. It can be seen on the above chart that the Atlantic meets a brick wall out west of Ireland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

Edit: Another thing I noticed is the rising of pressure over Greenland, up from around 990mb to 1015mb by next Sunday. Perhaps another Greenie high establishing itself. All of a long way off of course :lazy:.

Edited by Michael Prys-Roberts
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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Just looking at latest gfs pub run... and would like to ask a quick question, mentioned this in the scotland thread and had it suggested i pop it in here for some of our experienced posters to answer:

It shows us 'warming up' to -5 850s and possibly even 0's... then it shows the -5 and colder reappearing from almost nowhere eg no draw off the continent.

Is this because the cold is so embedded over us and with the ground utterly frozen that we can quickly generate our own cold or even cool any southwest stream that may appear?

Great question. Surprised no answers yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Well from the nine day wetter panel it would appear easterly or southeasterly winds would be the feature up until Friday so nothing mild, perhaps only less cold and in the southernmost counties then Friday leaves us with a sort of no-man's land setup:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1681.html

Then is this high pressure what you were suggesting could move north and link with the Scandi high? If that's the case then no real attack from the west or southwest at all. It can be seen on the above chart that the Atlantic meets a brick wall out west of Ireland.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn2161.html

Edit: Another thing I noticed is the rising of pressure over Greenland, up from around 990mb to 1015mb by next Sunday. Perhaps another Greenie high establishing itself. All of a long way off of course smile.gif.

Nice patterns for coldies - these synoptics were shown a while ago - the Greenland high does not get high enough. This is going down from here.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Nice patterns for coldies - these synoptics were shown a while ago - the Greenland high does not get high enough. This is going down from here.

Oh I know that on that particular chart but I was wondering if perhaps that is a trend towards it becoming deeper thereafter. Something to watch perhaps.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I'm no expert (far from it!) but snow cover is the key here for any potential breakdown, surely?

Cold/bitterly cold to our east, cold to our south, obviously colder still to our north and of course naturally we look to our west. However, the USA is buried in snow too, greenland/iceland etc. even parts of north africa have potential 4 snow this weekend. How can anyone be sure of what the next step is, the models barely get a grip on this so gut feeling is used.

My gut feeling is for the breakdown of services/society/normal 90's/00's life before the breakdown of this spell. Cold until Feb at least or even March what about that?

Sorry, just trying to be realistic and am hopefully not dramatising here

Snowy Cheers

STORMBOY

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Posted
  • Location: Middlesbrough
  • Location: Middlesbrough

I'm no expert (far from it!) but snow cover is the key here for any potential breakdown, surely?

Cold/bitterly cold to our east, cold to our south, obviously colder still to our north and of course naturally we look to our west. However, the USA is buried in snow too, greenland/iceland etc. even parts of north africa have potential 4 snow this weekend. How can anyone be sure of what the next step is, the models barely get a grip on this so gut feeling is used.

My gut feeling is for the breakdown of services/society/normal 90's/00's life before the breakdown of this spell. Cold until Feb at least or even March what about that?

Sorry, just trying to be realistic and am hopefully not dramatising here

Snowy Cheers

STORMBOY

I am right in thinking most of the northern hemisphere is under snow at the moment, like you say the usa have been battered, uk and europe have snow cover and have been battered and china has also been beltered with snow this winter, is there a pattern happening here are the so called world powers keeping something hush hush lol.

OK I'VE BEEN WATCHING TO MANY FILMS but you've got to admit it a pretty good start to winter :clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I am right in thinking most of the northern hemisphere is under snow at the moment, like you say the usa have been battered, uk and europe have snow cover and have been battered and china has also been beltered with snow this winter, is there a pattern happening here are the so called world powers keeping something hush hush lol.

indeed the SatPics show it well on TV

OK I'VE BEEN WATCHING TO MANY FILMS but you've got to admit it a pretty good start to winter drinks.gif

Yes but remember we all watch TV and take what we want from it, human nature and I kinda think the media create the panic and brainwash us.

Life is one big movie in a way and movies are supposed to be about life so maybe Al Gore is right and the Day after Tomorrow will happen one day. Also, theres 2 much emphasis on today and now, it's whats down the line is interesting and possibly bad news. Nature i.e the animals/birds/plants have had it bad for sure, these will be the headline makers soon.

Yes winter has been real good from my personal view too but there are many weeks to go yet, this weekend is certainly another hurdle for us folk.

I've already joined you drunk.gif for the record

Cheers

STORMBOY

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Posted
  • Location: Port Toilet
  • Location: Port Toilet

Yes but remember we all watch TV and take what we want from it, human nature and I kinda think the media create the panic and brainwash us.

Life is one big movie in a way and movies are supposed to be about life so maybe Al Gore is right and the Day after Tomorrow will happen one day. Also, theres 2 much emphasis on today and now, it's whats down the line is interesting and possibly bad news. Nature i.e the animals/birds/plants have had it bad for sure, these will be the headline makers soon.

Yes winter has been real good from my personal view too but there are many weeks to go yet, this weekend is certainly another hurdle for us folk.

I've already joined you drunk.gif for the record

Cheers

STORMBOY

The forecast here on tuesday is a high of 2oC then suddenly on wednesday it jumps to 7oC and rain that sounds like a pretty fast break down to me and it seems to stay that was for the rest of the run. I took this data using the long range forecast on here. Does that not mean the adlantic wins on the first attempt.

I love this sort of weather not much snow here but the air is so crisp and fresh it be a shame to return to damp horrid mildish ness.

So if I am looking at things correctly a lot depends on a high preassure remain in place over scandanavia pushing our jet stream over europe this allowing the wind to come from a much colder area. The breakdown to me still seems way to quick and easy.

My location is south wales by the way.

And storm boy your right plenty of time, but the general view is, feb will be a normal winter month for us with adlantic usual to hot for snow, and to cold for it to be nice. What we have all come to expect from winter. Then I look forward to may with the storm season starting I wonder what effects this winter will have on our spring

Edited by mrmonopoly
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Who else feels the GFS and UKM 0z are much out of line and that instead of this intrusion from the Atlantic we stay

in Southeasterly flow during next week.

Its difficult for me to see the Atlantic break through so easily, although i am likely wrong.

Cold spell ends Wednesday according to Model Guidance.

it must be noted ignoring my sentiments, the extraordinarly performance of the ECM model over the last month.

truly exceptional model guidance.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A very uncertain outlook this morning, but even with a partial breakdown it still looks cold. The track of the Channel Low is different on every model, the ECM however would deliver a major winter storm, looking at it from 72 to 96hrs as it develops this storm it also pulls in some colder upper air from the se over mainland europe ahead of the low. I don't want to ramp here but the snow totals if it was to verify would put the other days snow event into the shade!

Again though theres alot of uncertainty with this, what does seem likely though is that there maybe a change over from snow to sleet and rain especially for the sw and south but upto 168hrs still enough cold air remaining at the surface to slow any thaw.

After this storm if it verifies it looks on the cold side with some frosts returning upto 168hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 00z runs this morning indicate to me that the very cold spell is going to lose it's iron grip in around 7 days time, perhaps before that, certainly the ukmo and ecm suggest a less cold further outlook but the gfs gives us a reload just as the cold spell is teetering on the brink of collapse. In the meantime, a lot more heavy snow and drifting, strong easterly winds, bitter high windchill, severe frosts, more traffic chaos and danger to life and limb. Scotland catching a break from the snow due to the influence of high pressure to the north slowly migrating to scandinavia.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

Yes but remember we all watch TV and take what we want from it, human nature and I kinda think the media create the panic and brainwash us.

Life is one big movie in a way and movies are supposed to be about life so maybe Al Gore is right and the Day after Tomorrow will happen one day. Also, theres 2 much emphasis on today and now, it's whats down the line is interesting and possibly bad news. Nature i.e the animals/birds/plants have had it bad for sure, these will be the headline makers soon.

Yes winter has been real good from my personal view too but there are many weeks to go yet, this weekend is certainly another hurdle for us folk.

I've already joined you drunk.gif for the record

Cheers

STORMBOY

well looking what going to happen here soon its our after tomorrow coming!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Well ECM looks like a wet Mild spell developing but it has amazingly cold uppers until +96 around -10 and then after that it only reverts to -5 until the end of the run . Does anybody think it may be over doing these ?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

As has been said there are some large model differences this coming week. Looking at the GEFS, METO and ECM I think the following is quite likely.

The first low comes in Tuesday night and moves northwards after moving into the SW, keeping the cold SE winds going a bit, very quickly after that a second attack comes in and this low covers more of the UK before pulling away east/south east.

Looking at thicknesses, 850 temps and 925 temps the cold hangs around near the surface ( 925 temps don't get above -2 except in cornwall). 850's recover from Tues-Thurs maybe upto -2 or -3 in the south but getting colder again for the weekend (virtually the whole country below -5).

The Real breakdown of the surface cold, 925 temps occurs around the 18-20th.

However tbh from the T200+ it's quite possible to be starting a new reload of cold weather, There is no real support for any particular set up beyond T200+

The above could obviosuly lead to some breakdown snow, for the SW for attack 1 and more widely England with Attack 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well ECM looks like a wet Mild spell developing but it has amazingly cold uppers until +96 around -10 and then after that it only reverts to -5 until the end of the run . Does anybody think it may be over doing these ?

Whats mild about those upper air temps. The ecm is still cold at the surface throughout the whole run, mild and wet is way off the mark for that run! The channel low it has would be a major snow event if it verified, we're talking serious amounts of snow before it turns back to rain and sleet but by that time there would be so much snow it would take days to thaw!

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Posted
  • Location: S.N. Herefordshire N.S.W.
  • Location: S.N. Herefordshire N.S.W.

I have noticed over my life-time there is a tendency with extemes of weather that breakdowns are definite, i.e. if you have hot 30c it breaks with thunderstorms.

In this case I can see no sudden break. I feel a reload or reassertion of cold after a slight milder, say 0c , to be likely. I just dont feel a breakdown to normal Feb averages this year. More like Global Cooling/Warming Averaging-out...

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Whats mild about those upper air temps. The ecm is still cold at the surface throughout the whole run, mild and wet is way off the mark for that run! The channel low it has would be a major snow event if it verified, we're talking serious amounts of snow before it turns back to rain and sleet but by that time there would be so much snow it would take days to thaw!

I agree with what your saying , It's just I can on see how ECM would give us a renewed flow of -10 uppers that low has bound to have a mild sector with it , unyet the ECM shows -8 -10 uppers even on the South coast.

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