Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

General Model Output Discussion


reef

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Blast

Very good summary again !! How do your views correspond with those of GP or Brick for the remainder of Jan and into Feb??

RJS and my LRF were similar in overall pattern to GP and seems to be headingthe same way too. However, I have signal for a potential reload of what has happened to occur again after the Full Moon storm period for end of Jan. Its just a signal, but nthe potential is there and we could see a bitter cold first half of Feb. However, the track of the LP and its aftermath could lock us into the mild side of a re-emerging block. More by midmonth as load going on here and now.

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI

RJS and my LRF were similar in overall pattern to GP and seems to be headingthe same way too. However, I have signal for a potential reload of what has happened to occur again after the Full Moon storm period for end of Jan. Its just a signal, but nthe potential is there and we could see a bitter cold first half of Feb. However, the track of the LP and its aftermath could lock us into the mild side of a re-emerging block. More by midmonth as load going on here and now.

BFTP

Cheers mate !!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The control, mean and operational never get above zero, is that average for your area.

SS2

thats 10c warmer the current temps!

Are you sure?

oops, that was the link to the ensambles and the 'top' one is abardeen...yes derbyshires (pretty central) shows a marked warming up over the next 4 days... im not saying this WILL happen, its just what the ensamble is projecting.

No thaw on the latest GFS 12Z run Wayne.

are you sure?

GFS 12Z has everything further south than the 06Z- on Tuesday/Wednesday the mild air only makes it into the extreme SW, and for Thursday/Friday the lows are much further south, keeping the cold air locked in everywhere.

This would mean a week of snow cover, which could of course cause serious problems for issues like grit supplies, but bear in mind that the main alternative (mild air pushing up into the south from time to time) may well not address that problem, instead bringing a slow partial thaw and refreezing at night leading to ice instead of soft fluffy snow- which may be no better for those hoping for a proper thaw, as well as being much worse for those who would like to keep enjoying the snow.

John is quite right- this is a real forecaster's nightmare setup! UKMO and ECMWF will be significant.

i dont get it.. ok im no expert, i cant see how the cold is going to last, the uppers rise markedly as the depression pushes in from the atlantic and surely milder air is forced in front of it?... strong winds would surely aid the removal of the cold airmass, as i see it the 12z gfs take the country back within a few days to pretty much 'normal' conditions. not mild, but certainly comfortably above 0c in the daytime. all in all it looks to me like a pretty normal january run, some cold some not so cold... nothing really mild though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

thats 10c warmer the current temps!

oops, that was the link to the ensambles and the 'top' one is abardeen...yes derbyshires (pretty central) shows a marked warming up over the next 4 days... im not saying this WILL happen, its just what the ensamble is projecting.

are you sure?

i dont get it.. ok im no expert, i cant see how the cold is going to last, the uppers rise markedly as the depression pushes in from the atlantic and surely milder air is forced in front of it?... strong winds would surely aid the removal of the cold airmass, as i see it the 12z gfs take the country back within a few days to pretty much 'normal' conditions. not mild, but certainly comfortably above 0c in the daytime. all in all it looks to me like a pretty normal january run, some cold some not so cold... nothing really mild though.

We`ve been here before just after christmas when there was just afew days partial thaw here,no thaw in Scotland.

And here`s your thaw or not on GFS`s very easterly run.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1681.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn16817.png

This time the cold is much much stronger.

Edited by Snowyowl9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

thats 10c warmer the current temps!

oops, that was the link to the ensambles and the 'top' one is abardeen...yes derbyshires (pretty central) shows a marked warming up over the next 4 days... im not saying this WILL happen, its just what the ensamble is projecting.

are you sure?

i dont get it.. ok im no expert, i cant see how the cold is going to last, the uppers rise markedly as the depression pushes in from the atlantic and surely milder air is forced in front of it?... strong winds would surely aid the removal of the cold airmass, as i see it the 12z gfs take the country back within a few days to pretty much 'normal' conditions. not mild, but certainly comfortably above 0c in the daytime. all in all it looks to me like a pretty normal january run, some cold some not so cold... nothing really mild though.

pressure slips to the south cold air get sucked from the cold continent then delivered to a very cold uk,

so until the alantic mixes out the enriched cold it continues cold.

so gfs ukmo send low pressure south great charts tonight so far.:p

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

We`ve been here before just after christmas when there was just afew days partial thaw here,no thaw in Scotaland.

And here`s your thaw or not on GFS`s very easterly run.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1681.png

http://91.121.93.17/.../Rtavn16817.png

This time the cold is much much stronger.

Yes when the breakdown before Christmas showed, the models were initially very keen to take us back to full on Atlantic driven weather AND so were ensembles. Look what happened...... Not saying that it will work that way this time, but there has to be a very strong case for it

Aaron

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Well well well, we await the ECM with renewed interest.

However, no matter what it or the charts show today/tomorrow/Monday, how next week pans out is going to be intriguing. Old Skool battle brewing for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

that abit of mild ramping lol have to be fair some of it is true what your saying to a degree

but this happens all too often with a breakdown/attack from the atlantic, as the fronts approach, temps rise due to the low pushing air ahead if it.. 'advecting'???

it might remain cold, but not as cold as currently... surely?

pressure slips to the south cold air get sucked from the cold continent then delivered to a very cold uk,

so until the alantic mixes out the enriched cold it continues cold.

so gfs ukmo send low pressure south great charts tonight so far.:pardon:

(and ian brown) :)

... but as the low approaches biscay, it throws warmer air in front of it into france before it turns over us.... no?...

Edited by mushymanrob
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

... but as the low approaches biscay, it throws warmer air in front of it into france before it turns over us.... no?...

That's pretty much what happened during the great blizzard of Feruary 1978 though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

All,

Please dont delete this as it is model related in a way because his input his much appreciated by loads. So.....

Where is Mr Steve Murr been through this epic episode??

I have seen him around in only small doses and miss his invaluable knowledge and input.

Come out Steve where ever you are. Your take on the next developments is needed.

WW

I think he got put off because when he got excited about the snow for tonight and tomorrow when it showed up about 7 days ago was told that it was FI (and therefore shouldn't be talking about it) - it is very irritating when people constantly say that. As it transpired the forecast was pretty accurate in terms of the overall pattern (it was even talked about on the Country File forecast). It has arrived about 24 hours later and is not intense as it might have been.

The possibilities for a reload in far FI are well shown by the splitting and disrupted PV in the GFS 12Z. Most of the PV is pushed into Siberia aided by a lot of WAA through the centre of the US (rather unusually as it normally moves up the West coast - I do not know how realistic that is).

post-9179-12630602524742_thumb.gif

At the end of the run the PV is split into 3 with part of it possibly heading our way.

post-9179-12630602746342_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

what you say about 'not as cold Mushy' is essentially correct-there is no way the intense cold of the past 4-5 days could be carried on even without the probable effect of the low to the SW.

However, its very very complex-and a situation not seen for many years, not this side of the millennium for sure.

When was the last time that ALL parts of the UK had 5 days cold or very cold air sat over it. That is just for the more SW'ern areas-move North and east and, especially for parts of central Scotland and the higher areas of England that 5 days is almost 5 weeks!

Mild Atlantic air will of course win-but whether its this week or next month is the crunch. A forecasters nightmare as I keep repeating.

At the moment I would think that away from the SW and some western coastal areas the following 2-3 days MIGHT see an almost forgotten classic frontal snow belt, with probable blizzards over some of the higher areas, even in the south. Watch the radar over Europe, see how heavy the precip is, watch the 925mb temperatures as much as the 850mb ones. The higher end of the atmosphere, 700mb upwards is not of any direct concern although obviously it is part of the overall attempt by the milder Atlantic air to push the frigid air east and north.

A week of fascination to weather watchers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

but this happens all too often with a breakdown/attack from the atlantic, as the fronts approach, temps rise due to the low pushing air ahead if it.. 'advecting'???

it might remain cold, but not as cold as currently... surely?

(and ian brown) :)

... but as the low approaches biscay, it throws warmer air in front of it into france before it turns over us.... no?...

Hi Rob,

Long time no speak!

I suspect around 7 days to a more seasonal feel to around 7-8 degrees which may see some serious

flooding in places.....

Not our favorite Bartlett weather but I must admit to see the true Greenland High and some proper

Winter synoptics has even got me captured even though I prefer warmer conditions!

The kids wanted cold so I caught the bug :rolleyes:

I explained what would happen when we got our Bartlett and they frowned...When I explained

what a TRUE GH gave...eg possible SNOW...They said..bring us that! :good:

Hope you are well mate and possible milder Feb on way?

Regards,

CV

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

but this happens all too often with a breakdown/attack from the atlantic, as the fronts approach, temps rise due to the low pushing air ahead if it.. 'advecting'???

it might remain cold, but not as cold as currently... surely?

(and ian brown) :rolleyes:

... but as the low approaches biscay, it throws warmer air in front of it into france before it turns over us.... no?...

france is shivering like us,

and id of thought there getting a pounding right now looking at the met office radar,

not only this correct me if im wrong,

but during the classic winters snow was common coming up from the south even a flow from the south if cold enough it still can have an effect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The UKMO 12z T+144 looks like the prelude to a milder spell with southerly winds already into the west and a ridge building north through spain and into france, the gfs 12z looks nothing like the ukmo in the same range so I hope the gfs is right with it's easterly followed by northerly later, the gfs 12z is a good run for the cold spell to just run and run.

Edited by Frosty039
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)
  • Location: Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

The ECM 12z has a better tilt to the trough than the GFS - this is crucial because it helps to keep us in a continental flow, obviously helping ground temps but also the upper temps to a lesser degree. http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?09-0 . EDIT: 120 chart is not very good with the high ridging into France and Spain - more like the UKMO?

Edited by Yeti
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

what you say about 'not as cold Mushy' is essentially correct-there is no way the intense cold of the past 4-5 days could be carried on even without the probable effect of the low to the SW.

However, its very very complex-and a situation not seen for many years, not this side of the millennium for sure.

When was the last time that ALL parts of the UK had 5 days cold or very cold air sat over it. That is just for the more SW'ern areas-move North and east and, especially for parts of central Scotland and the higher areas of England that 5 days is almost 5 weeks!

Mild Atlantic air will of course win-but whether its this week or next month is the crunch. A forecasters nightmare as I keep repeating.

At the moment I would think that away from the SW and some western coastal areas the following 2-3 days MIGHT see an almost forgotten classic frontal snow belt, with probable blizzards over some of the higher areas, even in the south. Watch the radar over Europe, see how heavy the precip is, watch the 925mb temperatures as much as the 850mb ones. The higher end of the atmosphere, 700mb upwards is not of any direct concern although obviously it is part of the overall attempt by the milder Atlantic air to push the frigid air east and north.

A week of fascination to weather watchers.

It looks to me as though northern britain will get the snow risk back next week, all the action seems to be darn sarf at the moment but that should change once our high to the north migrates further east with low pressure pushing northeast into the uk, maybe some heavy snow for northern england and scotland during the second half of next week? why should the south have all the fun. :clap:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)

I think he got put off because when he got excited about the snow for tonight and tomorrow when it showed up about 7 days ago was told that it was FI (and therefore shouldn't be talking about it) - it is very irritating when people constantly say that. As it transpired the forecast was pretty accurate in terms of the overall pattern (it was even talked about on the Country File forecast). It has arrived about 24 hours later and is not intense as it might have been.

The possibilities for a reload in far FI are well shown by the splitting and disrupted PV in the GFS 12Z. Most of the PV is pushed into Siberia aided by a lot of WAA through the centre of the US (rather unusually as it normally moves up the West coast - I do not know how realistic that is).

post-9179-12630602524742_thumb.gif

At the end of the run the PV is split into 3 with part of it possibly heading our way.

post-9179-12630602746342_thumb.png

Steve Murr has been a voice of authority on the London and SE thread, especially during the current 'nowcasting' set ups, much appreciated by all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 12z ECM keeps it cold for next week! Here's the 144 chart: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0

The Scandinavian block up to now, looks much better placed and further west than what the 0z was showing. Also worth noting that the 144 ECM is a colder version of the 144 UKMO even for a good part of Ireland!

Karyo

Edited by karyo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The answer to Mushymanrob's questions regarding the onset of mild weather is illustrated by the GFS 2m temperature projections. They suggest daytime maxima of 0 to 2C for most, with the exception of some North Sea coastal fringes of the northeast which may reach 3 or 4C at times, and also parts of the far south-west where milder air briefly makes it in. Overnight minima mostly fall to between 0 and -2C.

Thus, it is indeed set to turn warmer for all parts next week, but it merely constitutes a move from "exceptionally cold" to "cold". There will also be a change of weather pattern to cloudier conditions- cloudy with light showers to the north of any frontal activity, frontal cloud at the frontal zone- hence the reduced diurnal ranges.

Talk of a breakdown next weekend isn't unfounded, as we look like seeing Round 2 of the Atlantic attack then (ECM and UKMO strongly agree on a deep low to the west at T+144) but too far out at this stage to have any confidence over- that low could easily end up being progged a few hundred miles away from its current position as we get nearer the time. But it is looking increasingly as if, for most, there will be no breakdown this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

According to the ECM, the 2nd Atlantic attack fails also: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0

The low undercuts once again and the cold spell goes on and on... :)

The Atlantic gives up: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0

A bittingly cold run!

Karyo

Edited by karyo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Horsham, West Sussex
  • Location: Near Horsham, West Sussex

There is a lot of precipitation for Southern england early next week, do you think the cold will hang on during this and the South will have more snow Monday to Wednesday?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There will be snow on the northern flank of these systems, turning to rain on their southern flank. The exact positioning is another classic forecaster's nightmare, but the current set of model outputs suggest that rain may be reserved for the extreme south and south-west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...