Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

General Model Output Discussion


reef

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

I'm sure there's a lot of people out there like myself who have never seen a set up for next week like this before. I'm an amateur at this model watching and it's giving me a headache with the differences between each model, wouldn't like to be a professional forecaster this week!

A couple of runs ago the GFS/UKMO/ECM suggested a somewhat over progressive mild attack with low after low (GFS still shows 3 attacks within +180). ECM holds the second attack off now until around +180.

General consensus though would indicate this cold is going to be very hard to shift and that some places will see more snow even though classic conditions (especially cold uppers) may not be present. Certainly a learning curve for me!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

OMG what an awesome ecm 12z, a rebooted easterly blast from russia :yahoo: This ties in with what Fred said earlier so we now have a good idea where the ukmo would go beyond next friday. This winter is already a classic although I was beginning to think the cold would be on it's last legs next week but now the ecm and gfs have given it a new lease of life to extend even beyond next week. :rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes generally more agreement for undercutting midweek keeping the UK north of the Lows.

GEM again confident of this.It`s been consistent on keeping the Low`s undercutting over it`s last few runs when other models dithered.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

It`s keen to reintroduce the colder uppers too,

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

OMG what an awesome ecm 12z, a rebooted easterly blast from russia :yahoo: This ties in with what Fred said earlier so we now have a good idea where the ukmo would go beyond next friday. This winter is already a classic although I was beginning to think the cold would be on it's last legs next week but now the ecm and gfs have given it a new lease of life to extend even beyond next week. :rolleyes:

Indeed, if the 12z's verify, our snow cover will be safe! Not to mention the January CET! :D

Karyo

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

OMG what an awesome ecm 12z, a rebooted easterly blast from russia :doh: This ties in with what Fred said earlier so we now have a good idea where the ukmo would go beyond next friday. This winter is already a classic although I was beginning to think the cold would be on it's last legs next week but now the ecm and gfs have given it a new lease of life to extend even beyond next week. :unknw:

Yes Karl, as I said the block is going nowhere fast. Start looking for signs of migration into Greenland in the 180-240 range over the next couple of days. That's where my money is at the moment. The cold looking very prolonged still.

Aaron

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

If the ECM came off we could have a serious situation regarding the state of our roads. There probably wouldn't be much snowfall (don't the heights over us need to be fairly low for this?) but it will certainly be cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

That really is a monster high at 240 on the ECM- a thing of beauty. Look at the high coming out of Newfoundland aswell...........:unknw: Some of the more knowledeable members on here will realise its significance.

Only one way that chart is going and warmth it aint

Aaron

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl

The ECM looks similar to the UKMO tonight. ECM goes on to develop a huge area of high pressure over Scandinavia and neighbouring Russia - shades of Feb 91 there. At the latter stages of the ECM, an extended ridge from the Siberian high also appears. This feature has been non-existent in recent winters; it used to be quite common.

Good agreement on the cold continuing for some time yet. The mild breakdown is on hold for now it seems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

There will be snow on the northern flank of these systems, turning to rain on their southern flank. The exact positioning is another classic forecaster's nightmare, but the current set of model outputs suggest that rain may be reserved for the extreme south and south-west.

Tues.Fax

l

fax72s.gif

Looks like a battle royal as that low passes close to SW.

I would imagine the ever narrowing warm sector would briefly give rain for Cornwall,parts of Devon,SW Ireland but a lot of snow further NE.

Strong winds too for a period.

Still fine tuning to be done so details will probably change as we get nearer.

Interstingly the forecasters have drawn the low further south than it`s raw output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

Which would keep any milder air restricted to the extreme south.

Edited by phil n.warks.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yes Karl, as I said the block is going nowhere fast. Start looking for signs of migration into Greenland in the 180-240 range over the next couple of days. That's where my money is at the moment. The cold looking very prolonged still.

Aaron

Fingers crossed Aaron,

I'm a lot more optimistic than I was this morning, having the ecm onboard is very important and it's a really good upgrade from the 00z this morning, undercutting lows will hopefully be mentioned many times on here during the next week. :)

Indeed, if the 12z's verify, our snow cover will be safe! Not to mention the January CET! :unknw:

Karyo

I'm a lot more confident it will last now Karyo, the gfs runs today have all showed a generally cold outlook and now the ecm has produced a stunner, long live our deep and crisp snow cover. :doh: The meto update today was also well worth the wait..let's hope for more of the same tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

fantastic model output this evening although im sure those responsible for gritting our roads won't agree!

You know I said a few days ago that you would be better off looking at the archives of previous cold spells than using the models. Based on this evenings runs that appears very true because what we're seeing in the 12Zs occured during those classic winters.

If the ECM verified its only a case of when the block goes to Greenland rather than if!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

This has been said a few times recently but it's worth posting again and that is in Winters of late this thread has been filled with those looking into FI for a cold spell at T240 ish only to have it wrenched away as the reliable time frame comes around.

Now we are here in a cold setup for the forseeable future andf we have mild spells in FI that are appearing and then dissaearing as the reliable time frame comes around.

I can't begin to iunderstand half of what is posted however one question I have is that with milder winters being the norm for us do models have that as part of their programming and if so would that explain why they may show something mild that just isn't gong to happen?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The models are indicating some mega snowfalls between tomorrow and midweek across england & wales with 30+cm in places and combined with strong E'ly winds there will be deep drifting, some areas are going to be cut off by this snow as it just adds to the already deep covering in many areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

I might just have to repeat the post I made yesterday, as today's output really demonstrates not only who has been truly on the ball in longer range forecasting, but also how difficult it sometimes is to see the wood from the trees in analysing model runs. Experience of how these situations played out in the past is invaluable. Also why it’s important not to jump to conclusions as to what constitutes a trend.

GPs analysis that the lows will undercut the UK are certainly demonstrated on the 06z run. I always find it really odd how some get taken in by a couple of runs jumping onto an apparent new trend, how often have we seen this happen, the models have a day of uncertainty only to revert to an earlier evolution on later runs. It might well be that this mornings 00z runs are on to a new trend but I think I’ll wait awhile before jumping to any conclusions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

The models are indicating some mega snowfalls between tomorrow and midweek across england & wales with 30+cm in places and combined with strong E'ly winds there will be deep drifting, some areas are going to be cut off by this snow as it just adds to the already deep covering in many areas.

UKMO raw GM also agrees with calling >30cm spot values in the late Tues/early Wed frames.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

UKMO raw GM also agrees with calling >30cm spot values in the late Tues/early Wed frames.

Yes Ian it looks like the southwest is going to be badly hit as well, also, northern england and the southern pennines look impassable during mon/tues, even tomorrow will be severe with outbreaks of snow, heavy at times with drifts piling up in the strong winds. Scotland looks like escaping due to the high pressure influence to the northeast but the snowy weather could transfer north as next week progresses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

That really is a monster high at 240 on the ECM- a thing of beauty. Look at the high coming out of Newfoundland aswell...........:( Some of the more knowledeable members on here will realise its significance.

Only one way that chart is going and warmth it aint

Aaron

I'm pretty sure the charts won't verify exactly as the ECM shows at T+240, but a return to sunshine and snow showers would be inevitable for eastern areas at the very least- some seriously cold uppers in that airmass coming across from the east.

For the time being, while it could chop and change again over the next couple of days, models suggesting an attack on Tues/Weds failing to bring any mild air in bar the extreme SW and then some colder air coming across from the east towards the end of the week, promising fairly cloudy skies for most and probably a scattering of light snow showers, sleety near some coastal fringes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts

Yes Ian it looks like the southwest is going to be badly hit as well, also, northern england and the southern pennines look impassable during mon/tues, even tomorrow will be severe with outbreaks of snow, heavy at times with drifts piling up in the strong winds. Scotland looks like escaping due to the high pressure influence to the northeast but the snowy weather could transfer north as next week progresses.

Thanks Frosty (and others here) for the learned assessments, as always. And your point re the next 24hrs also needs stressing re drifting etc., especially given the expected powder snow scenario and thus unreliable (= likely understated) accumulation values progged in NAE and other modelling.

Best

Ian

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

cold.gifwmc-1-30.png

WTF is that the end of the world??

where is that chart from?

Edited by james12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edge of the West Cotswolds
  • Location: Edge of the West Cotswolds

WTF is that the end of the world??

It's the black holes of doom! Never...ever seen those colours over the UK before!! :drinks::cold:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...