General Model Output Discussion

[Mark Griffin]

The next ice age

[Liam J]

Thats what I thought day after tommorow ! I dont think I will trust the russian models

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wmce_cartes.php?&ech=30&mode=1

surely thats been messed with and not at all true

[Upgrade]

The models are indicating some mega snowfalls between tomorrow and midweek across england & wales with 30+cm in places and combined with strong E'ly winds there will be deep drifting, some areas are going to be cut off by this snow as it just adds to the already deep covering in many areas.

I thought that the models had shown this snowfall to be fairly light and patchy?

[Nick L]

Why do people keep posting that chart, it comes up so often on the Moscow model, and then we always get the same response of "omg" "ice age" etc. etc.

[Mark Griffin]

Why do people keep posting that chart, it comes up so often on the Moscow model, and then we always get the same response of "omg" "ice age" etc. etc.

Hmm.. first time ive seen it so thats my natural response to it

Anyway temp here is -0.6.. it actually feels warmer outside.. never before have i said a temp of below freezing feels warm

[NorthernRab]

Why do people keep posting that chart, it comes up so often on the Moscow model, and then we always get the same response of "omg" "ice age" etc. etc.

I've grown quite fond of it, especially the contrast of upper air temperatures in the Atlantic

[Nick L]

I've grown quite fond of it, especially the contrast of upper air temperatures in the Atlantic

Although it is a cold lover's dream, I think it might be a bit of a broken chart...

[Snowyowl9]

It's the black holes of doom! Never...ever seen those colours over the UK before!!

That must be deep cold temps that`s showing.

Bet theres been quite alot of drifting in the east/SE today where the strong winds have been.

[NorthernRab]

Although it is a cold lover's dream, I think it might be a bit of a broken chart...

Think you're right there

Edited January 9, 2010 by NorthernRab

[Frosty.]

I thought that the models had shown this snowfall to be fairly light and patchy?

Nope, weather warnings have already been issued for the heavy snows in the southeast tonight and more widely across england & wales tomorrow + monday + tuesday and there will very probably be more for midweek as well, most of the snow looks confined to england and wales with very little if any in scotland, initially at least.

[Magadan]

fantastic model output this evening although im sure those responsible for gritting our roads won't agree!

You know I said a few days ago that you would be better off looking at the archives of previous cold spells than using the models. Based on this evenings runs that appears very true because what we're seeing in the 12Zs occured during those classic winters.

If the ECM verified its only a case of when the block goes to Greenland rather than if!

Now you're talking. For me, that's the only way to go.

[Optimus Prime]

Yep, we ened to looks back nin history and watch how nthe evolution from present to future went rather then relying on the current to future models. But the only way to do this is to not cherry pick the cold scenarios, and go for both.

But isn't that was the models do anyway?

[Guest FireStorm]

Well I don't know about finishing off the run, this could just about finish off the country;

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Recm2401.gif

Will the high over southern europe manage to move far enough North and lock the jetstream back into a north-south direction or is the high over Russia slide over Scotland?

[snowmackem]

Well I don't know about finishing off the run, this could just about finish off the country;

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Ian, it will be finished before then with the reliable forecast period details and the country running out of gas and salt!

Karl

[Snowstorm1]

Nope, weather warnings have already been issued for the heavy snows in the southeast tonight and more widely across england & wales tomorrow + monday + tuesday and there will very probably be more for midweek as well, most of the snow looks confined to england and wales with very little if any in scotland, initially at least.

Frosty what do you think for northeast england for tommorrow and next week? People are saying the snow will hit us and others are saying it wont. Others are saying sleet/wet snow and others saying snow. so i am quite confused ? btw I believe that this cold may go on for for a while yet and todays 12z has screamed potential right at me

[rmc1987]

Well I don't know about finishing off the run, this could just about finish off the country;

http://www.wzkarten3...cs/Recm2401.gif

Ian,

What does this chart show? Apart from colour....

Cheers

[Tom D]

Ian,

What does this chart show? Apart from colour....

Cheers

A failed Atlantic attack, a very strong block, no way that thing would budge for a long time.

[TEITS]

The models are indicating some mega snowfalls between tomorrow and midweek across england & wales with 30+cm in places and combined with strong E'ly winds there will be deep drifting, some areas are going to be cut off by this snow as it just adds to the already deep covering in many areas.

Although early next week could bring large snowfall amounts to N England although I feel this will be reserved for higher ground and those away from the E coast. Certainly won't be powder snow for some in N England and I wouldn't be surprised if those on the E coast will see rain instead of snow. The reason why E parts of N England could see wet snow or rain is largely due to the long fetch across the N Sea. However this doesn't apply for locations such as Wales, Midlands. infact early next week the likes of Newcastle could see max temps around 3-4C.

[Frosty.]

Frosty what do you think for northeast england for tommorrow and next week? People are saying the snow will hit us and others are saying it wont. Others are saying sleet/wet snow and others saying snow. so i am quite confused ? btw I believe that this cold may go on for for a while yet and todays 12z has screamed potential right at me

I think most of northern england will see plenty of drifting snow for the next 4 days, maybe it will be a bit sleety on or near the east coast but snow inland. It looks like becoming widespread during tomorrow and just continuing to accumulate and I think it will be even more severe than we have seen already due to the drifting, the models indicate a strong ESE'ly flow until midweek, maybe slacker flow later in the week but remaining very cold throughout.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Frosty039

[chionomaniac]

ECM ensembles show a split between a milder solution or continuing on with the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Divergence comes quite early so FI is quite soon.

[ChartViewer]

ECM ensembles show a split between a milder solution or continuing on with the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Divergence comes quite early so FI is quite soon.

ECM ensembles look on the mild side to me, which means a slow melt and possible flooding or many

Also I suspect we will be on the plus side of 5 degrees come next Sunday and that although not mild

instigates , flooding from the heavy snow and the other side of cold when it ends we dont like

Weather patterns change and next weekend will probably give us a slight warm up although not that

mild......However as the experts say....Feb could be very warm for the time of year....

Before that probably a couple of Atlantic v Artic battles to commence

Edited January 9, 2010 by ChartViewer

[Frosty.]

Although early next week could bring large snowfall amounts to N England although I feel this will be reserved for higher ground and those away from the E coast. Certainly won't be powder snow for some in N England and I wouldn't be surprised if those on the E coast will see rain instead of snow. The reason why E parts of N England could see wet snow or rain is largely due to the long fetch across the N Sea. However this doesn't apply for locations such as Wales, Midlands. infact early next week the likes of Newcastle could see max temps around 3-4C.

Agreed, I just mentioned in another post that it will probably be sleety on and near the east coast but probably turn more readily to snow inland, it looks a very severe wintry spell of weather for a large swathe of england and wales between tomorrow and wednesday, very disruptive snow yet again causing travel chaos for many.

[PersianPaladin]

I'm pretty sure the charts won't verify exactly as the ECM shows at T+240, but a return to sunshine and snow showers would be inevitable for eastern areas at the very least- some seriously cold uppers in that airmass coming across from the east.

For the time being, while it could chop and change again over the next couple of days, models suggesting an attack on Tues/Weds failing to bring any mild air in bar the extreme SW and then some colder air coming across from the east towards the end of the week, promising fairly cloudy skies for most and probably a scattering of light snow showers, sleety near some coastal fringes.

I agree with that assessment TWS.

[dave79]

Agreed TEITS and I think this has been understated within many of the forecasts so far. We on the East Coast (N Norfolk) already have temps of +2C and rising dewpoints! For me, it's the beginning of the end for this particular spell.

yes I also agree, its got a little milder here as the day as gone on ( Teesside ) other posters in the yorkshire/pennines thread who are on the coast are saying its warming up there too, not to sure if I will see snow like we've had the past two days again for a while, roll on the next spell of cold weather

[damianslaw]

A classic atlantic/continental battleground is about to commence over the country over the coming days, history tells us that such affairs can be very drawn out ones indeed often resulting in some areas seeing very heavy falls of snow.

My feeling based purely on the depth of cold we have at the moment at the lower surface and also the signals being shown by the teleconnections, that the continent will win out and we will high pressure advecting from the east westwards again - meaning the low pressures will have no choice but to undercut the high - most energy seems to want to continue to concentrate in the southern arm of the jet, hence the southerly passage of the lows, the position is crucial we look like we are going to be locked in a SE flow for quite some time, though it may turn southerly by thursday but at the same time those heights are really going to be intensying out of west russia, the AO and NAO look like staying negative for some time aswell.

As for snow prospects, there is potential for widespread heavy falls mid week in northern central and western parts of england away from coastal areas, with the Pennines and possibly Cumbria in the firing line for seeing the most as this is where dew points and thicknesses will be at the best for ensuring the snow doesn't turn more sleety and wet in nature.

Like we saw just after christmas, a very temporary breakdown of the cold conditions mid week for the SW edging in S Wales and CS England and probably generally eastern coastal areas looks on the cards, but by the end of the week the cold will quickly fight back. This is a pivotal moment for the winter, its a pattern which has reload after reload written all over it.