Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[sunny scunny]

Light snow here with a few big flakes mixed in

Edit. Snow is slowly getting heavier.

Edited January 10, 2010 by sufc

[Lewis]

Once again netweather radar gone cuckooo...

Snow? More like rain

[summer blizzard]

Well i must say that is dissapointing news, warnings have gone from 5cm to 30cm and are now downgraded to 1cm to 15cm, though precipitation over Holland looks good and it looks on track, and is producing snow over Belgium and Holland.

[NW Leeds Russ]

One or two little flakes in the wind coming down now.

Temp 1.7c and wind ENE picking up.

Looks like that radar splodge is heading stright for us wth a bit more out in the N Sea..

[grab my graupel]

Snow thawing quite rapidly here I'm in desperate need of a top-up

[johnholmes]

As Coast has asked is best not to get involved with what I call yah boo type posts, this centre said this or that centre said that.

As a retired professional forecaster I forecast as I assess from the models taking all manner of things into account with over 40 years experience in this.

As to my comment in the model thread I did look at it about 1 hour later and almost corrected it as I felt I'd overdone the comment. That said, I still feel, that with RELATIVELY cold air over the UK through much of this week that heavy snow COULD occur over the high ground although that is much less likely over low ground. I should have made that distinction on the model thread. The output from NAE yesterday did puzzle me-I felt it overdone but it had been quite good earlier in the week. The problem of course is that earlier in the week with such cold 850mb temperatures it was much easier. I've posted several times over the past few days that this week is a forecasters nightmare-it still is. The major thing to start with is the intensity of precip and that has always been a problem with any of the models. Slight precip with marginal other conditions and sleet or rain at low levels is the most likely. heavy and prolonged precip and that is likely to change to wet snow at low level. So get the precip intensity correct and its half the battle to a correct forecast. BUT its getting the precip intensity correct that is the difficult bit. I did post yesterdays that the 00z would show what this would be. The 2 models have done just that-its now likely to be slight over the next 12-24 hours for most parts-hence the lesser risk of snow for most areas other than hilly areas.

I hope that this answers the questions raised on this thread in the past hour or so. Please feel free to ask-criticise if you wish-I'll always do my best to give an honest answer.

Edited January 10, 2010 by johnholmes

[cowdog]

Once again netweather radar gone cuckooo...

Snow? More like rain

Odd given raintoday has it correctly as rain, I would of thought they used the same met feed / met doing the processing of the feed.

Edited January 10, 2010 by cowdog

[Lewis]

Snow thawing quite rapidly here I'm in desperate need of a top-up

Hi GMG

What's your temp and dew please

[reef]

EGG on the face times for the metoffice and beeb again lol

And to be fair to the Metoffice/BBC, yourself too?

As I said before, never underestimate the warming effects of the North Sea. Now the wind has got up, the warming effects extend further inland so its only really higher ground that are seeing anything on the right side of marginal.

Currently 2.7C here with a dewpoint of -0.2C. Theres been some light rain and a rather large thaw now. Ive not measured yet but Id say we've lost almost a half of the depth already.

[Mark Bayley]

Snowing lightly here at the moment. Wind blowing it about a bit. Should keep it up for an hour or two and get slightly heavier if the radar is anything to go by. Snow not sticking where its melted (cars, roofs) however its maintaining the current snow i suppose. If it gets a little heavier (which its trying to do) then a slush dusting on the roofs might be possible i suppose

Edited January 10, 2010 by mark bayley

[fazzafarrand]

Hi GMG

What's your temp and dew please

Rain today? clearly showing showers coming out of Hull as Rain and heading straight for Leeds.....

[Lewis]

And to be fair to the Metoffice/BBC, yourself too?

As I said before, never underestimate the warming effects of the North Sea. Now the wind has got up, the warming effects extend further inland so its only really higher ground that are seeing anything on the right side of marginal.

Currently 2.7C here with a dewpoint of -0.2C. Theres been some light rain and an rather large thaw now. Ive not measured yet but Id say we've lost almost a half of the depth already.

Yep egg on the face for me too, i thought we would at least see some snow flakes

Still not game over yet, but can't see it happening at all. Unless you live on higher ground.

Measured, gone from 9cm too 4.5cm rofl

Back garden was 16cm drifts, now 7cm at best.

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

The first day above freezing in a fair number of them here. The temp is 1.2 with a dew of -1.35. It was obvious to see a backtrack to the BBC and MetO forecasts coming as that sort of ppn intensity was never shown on the models. Without the intensity either, this would have lead to the more marginality that we are currently seeing in many areas atm.

[sunny scunny]

Light rain now, but as soon as it gets heavier it quickly changes to snow.Temp is 1.9C

[Lewis]

A lovely tropical 4.4c here now in Jungle Hull. Dew point now 1.4

[Winter Warmer]

snow falling for all of 30secs looked wet compared to previous days

[Richard Lake]

Morning guys,

Lewis I think you should stick your neck back in again

C'est la vie

[Lewis]

Morning guys,

Lewis I think you should stick your neck back in again :whistling:

C'est la vie

HaHa, yeah. It was all looking so good and positive... Then bang, gone without a whimper. I once again have learnt, never ever too side a forecast with the BBC.

Reef, had it spot on all along. I think i was very over confident as it was marginal with the last break down but it snowed The wind is now acually dropping off. Now the temps is 4.5c

[davey147]

Here in Rotherham, S Yorks, the 8" - 10" of snow we had on Tuesday has nearly all gone, most of it has melted away this morning. BBC said we would get snow, so I guess we will get rain (I always go with the opposite, and 80% of time im right).

Temp is currently 41' outside, no wonder its thawing fast!

[summer blizzard]

Rain today? clearly showing showers coming out of Hull as Rain and heading straight for Leeds.....

Radar also shows as snow inland, so looks fine, especially with the dew point below 0C, i still think this event could be on par with last nioghts expectations, but we will see, if your dew point is below 0C at 15:00, expect a fair bit of snow.

[Lewis]

Radar also shows as snow inland, so looks fine, especially with the dew point below 0C, i still think this event could be on par with last nioghts expectations, but we will see, if your dew point is below 0C at 15:00, expect a fair bit of snow.

Wait until the precipitation hit's, your dew point will shoot up.

[Schnee]

There is a very slow thaw going on here. Looking at http://www.johnsmeaton.leeds.sch.uk/weather.php which is close to me, the temp is 2.7ºc but unsure of the DP.

[winterof79]

Well i must say that is dissapointing news, warnings have gone from 5cm to 30cm and are now downgraded to 1cm to 15cm, though precipitation over Holland looks good and it looks on track, and is producing snow over Belgium and Holland.

Noticed that myself summer,it seems to lose its intensity over the north sea then reintensify as it hits land.As you say though its there.

[Harsh Climate]

lmao it was only yesterday that the GREAT rob mcelwee said that todays snow would be the 'dry powdery sort that blows about in the wind', soooo wrong!

[Lincs Observation]

Morning all

well the Thaw has started in earnest here on the coast, we did have some heavy wet snow for a time but with Dew points in plus figures and a warm air temps ( in relation to recent weeks) i cannot forsee any real snow threat for the time been.In a way im happy that the snow is going finally really because on a personal note in regard to travel to work and our horses life has been a little more difficult than usual.However i do like the snow been around during the winter months its very seasonal and it would be nice in future years we have more of the same.Now on a locational point of view im not sure what the next week or so is going to do but i hope that the slush has gone before it turns to ice, However i would not be too upset to see more snow in the next few weeks, but i fear that we may be moving into a mild spot.

Current Temps3°C

Realfeel®-7°C

Rain

Humidity: 86%

Dew Point: 1° C

Pressure: 1020 mb

Visibility: 4 km

Edited January 10, 2010 by Lincs Observation