Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[jukebox]

FROM THE OLD THREAD BY WEATHER 09 TAKE NOTE.............

Exactly as Ian says, it's a developing situation. The upper warm front has barely made it on to our shores last time I checked, but I suspect it's somewhere over the far south east. As this moves north across the country, the precip will gradually build. So by around midday somewhere across the Midlands should be experiencing some snow. As we progress into the evening the snow should intensify somewhat over the Midlands, moreso towards the north and west of the Midlands.

Relax and unwind...snow is on its way...........

This post sums up the situation perfectly, patience people you cant see something that has'nt developed yet!! We should all be posting this time tomorrow and be comparing snow depths

[weather_it_will]

It looks like it's all over at last and the thaw is coming this week according to the model watchers.

Meto got the forecast completely wrong for my area.

Weather warnings have all downgraded.

Slow thaw wednesday onwards.

Snow...what snow.. HA!

[echobase]

Just to add further to my other post, just looked at the NMM and it would seem to decrease the intensity of the precip across many parts for tomorrow. So from this, I actually think 2" falls would be a bonus. The snow may well be slow-moving and persistent, but it will also be light-moderate mostly, and there will probably be breaks inbetween bands of snow. Not trying to be negative...just my thoughts.

I`m also not trying to look at a negative angle, I would just like to know the science behind the ppn build up because all I can see is a cloud over Norway!!

Still learning........

Edited January 9, 2010 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[jukebox]

It looks like it's all over at last and the thaw is coming this week according to the model watchers.

Meto got the forecast completely wrong for my area.

Weather warnings have all downgraded.

Slow thaw wednesday onwards.

Snow...what snow.. HA!

The weather warnings on the met are all the same for this region!!!!!!! What warnings you refering to????

[echobase]

FROM THE OLD THREAD BY WEATHER 09 TAKE NOTE.............

Exactly as Ian says, it's a developing situation. The upper warm front has barely made it on to our shores last time I checked, but I suspect it's somewhere over the far south east. As this moves north across the country, the precip will gradually build. So by around midday somewhere across the Midlands should be experiencing some snow. As we progress into the evening the snow should intensify somewhat over the Midlands, moreso towards the north and west of the Midlands.

Relax and unwind...snow is on its way...........

This post sums up the situation perfectly, patience people you cant see something that has'nt developed yet!! We should all be posting this time tomorrow and be comparing snow depths

But does it develop from that trough or come from nowhere?? If it comes from the trough please explain how... if it comes from nowhere, how do you know its coming??

Not being downbeat just trying to learn!!

Edited January 9, 2010 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[andy_leics22]

I`m also not trying to look at a negative angle, I would just like to know the science behind the ppn build up because all I can see is a cloud over Norway!!

Still learning........

Hows it going Marky boy?

[Hailsowen]

It looks like it's all over at last and the thaw is coming this week according to the model watchers.

Yes, we might be reaching the sweltering highs of 4C next Saturday!

I'm sure people know this already, but 7 days out is a centuary in forecasting, especially in these cold conditions. The cold's always all to play for.

[echobase]

Hows it going Marky boy?

Fine mate, just alittle confused....

Andy where is this snow coming from??

[Hailsowen]

I think they're forecasting it'll come from 'nowhere' like the showers on late tuesday did, except they'll grow in strength near the welsh border, the north midlands and the pennines later in the night.

Bear in mind this is a vauge guess!

Edited January 9, 2010 by Hailsowen

[andy_leics22]

Fine mate, just alittle confused....

Andy where is this snow coming from??

Goood, glad things are ok in pork pie land

Well, as far as I am aware it's coming from the East.

UKMO precip charts show this..

Relax mate, open another Carling and believe The snow is coming.

[jukebox]

But does it develop from that trough or come from nowhere?? If it comes from the trough please explain how... if it comes from nowhere, how do you know its coming??

Not being downbeat just trying to learn!!

Hi ECHO i'm still learning myself but I'll have a pop at explaining it mate. The weather we are going to get is not from a trough but it is being generated by the front entering the country overnight and as it is a warm front it will be bringing moist air and the moist air will ride over the top of the cold air that is sitting here at the moment thus generating the snow. Hope that helps mate. More to the fact I hope I'm right lol.

edit................weater 09 you beat me lol.

Edited January 10, 2010 by jukebox

[echobase]

It will come from the upper warm front pushing north across the country during tomorrow, developing slowly as it does so. Warm fronts usually give weak precipitation than compared with cold fronts. Tomorrow will be no different, but given that precip will be in the form of snow, it should be moderate with occasional heavier bursts towards evening time and into Monday. The heavier snow predicted for high ground in Wales and over the Pennines regions will be because of better lift of the cold air at the surface. This is why higher snowfall totals have been forecast for these areas.

Hope this helps. I'm sure an expert such as John Holmes would be able to explain this better.

Many thanks for the input, cheers.

Hi ECHO i'm still learning myself but I'll have a pop at explaining it mate. The weather we are going to get is not from a trough but it is being generated by the front entering the country overnight and as it is a warm front it will be bringing moist air and the moist air will ride over the top of the cold air that is sitting here at the moment thus generating the snow. Hope that helps mate. More to the fact I hope I'm right lol.

edit................weater 09 you beat me lol.

Yet you made more sense !! Cheers to both of you.

Goood, glad things are ok in pork pie land

Well, as far as I am aware it's coming from the East.

UKMO precip charts show this..

Relax mate, open another Carling and believe The snow is coming.

Try selling the s*dding things at this time of year!!

Carling no. 2 opened and ready for consumption!!

I BELIEVE................................... Just don`t understand every now and then

I`m only concerned as I`m at work tomorrow and it would be helpful to know the conditions at 9am and 4pm radar watch it is then !!

Edited January 10, 2010 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[andy_leics22]

Yes weather09 and jukebox described that very well

To be honest I don't mind how it comes here, whether it's trough, showers or front.. I just want it to give us a good covering

[echobase]

I suppose an easier way of putting it would have been to say that a weather front is moving north during tomorrow. Weather fronts bring precipitation and in this case, the precipitation will be in the form of snow. As the weather front moves over high ground there is higher precipitation amounts as there is better forcing of the cold air under the relatively warmer air brought by the upper warm front, resulting in more precipitation, meaning more snow.

In simple terms, snow is coming tomorrow for wide area of the Midlands, will be light-moderate in nature, but heavy over high ground.

It`s late and I`ve spent the day radar watching instead of serving customers, brain is addled, thanks for the lamens terms

[Hailsowen]

Don't forget the drifting, there looks to be a wind tommorrow that may effect things.

[echobase]

Yes weather09 and jukebox described that very well

To be honest I don't mind how it comes here, whether it's trough, showers or front.. I just want it to give us a good covering

I couldn`t care less if a `care bear` pooped it on me, as long as i`m not driving at the time!! Sorry Andy, Care Bears were an 80`s girls toy, just to bring you up to speed!!

Thanks for the feedback guys, going to get some sleep before the long push south in the morning!

Edited January 10, 2010 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[Supercell]

Don't forget the drifting, there looks to be a wind tommorrow that may effect things.

Yeah, if you can, find some high and open ground and watch the drifting. A near ground blizzard of sorts.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Supercell

[jukebox]

It`s late and I`ve spent the day radar watching instead of serving customers, brain is addled, thanks for the lamens terms

If you use just rainfall radar's then you do so at your peril!! I think sometimes that is why some people on here get so downbeat at times because they can be so misleading. I have had light snow today fro about 6pm to about 11pm and the radar showed diddly. Another good tool to use I,ve found ECHO is the SAT24 website which gives you a sattelite image of the clouds and gives you a better understanding of whats moving where. I'm not sure if netweather supply one but I,m sure someone will point you in the right direction if they do. Quick question for weather 09..... when the snow is heavier at altitude is this called orographic lifting ???? I,ve heard the phrase in before and think it does but not sure????? cheers mate.

[Rommy]

looks like wednesdays snow event is off then?

[cyclonic happiness]

I was thinking, and DO NOT take this lightly... if this cold spell continues for another 2 weeks and the temps stay at or below zero, dipping much lower at night, the canlas may have deep enough ice to skate on, I'd measure it of course and have ropes and a life jacket, but it was done in the past and it's always been an ambition of mine.

The canadian sites say that ice is safe to skate on at four inches deep and safe to walk on at 3, so maybe a long dormant tradition could come back to life?

the Dutch are already excited about their Elfstedentocht , if it were not for the health and saftey brigade I'm sure there would be something similar here?

this is not an advocation to do anything yet, i'm saying that in another 2 weeks, if the weather stays the same, it will be a real choice?

what do you guys think?

[GreatBarr]

I was thinking, and DO NOT take this lightly... if this cold spell continues for another 2 weeks and the temps stay at or below zero, dipping much lower at night, the canlas may have deep enough ice to skate on, I'd measure it of course and have ropes and a life jacket, but it was done in the past and it's always been an ambition of mine.

The canadian sites say that ice is safe to skate on at four inches deep and safe to walk on at 3, so maybe a long dormant tradition could come back to life?

the Dutch are already excited about their Elfstedentocht , if it were not for the health and saftey brigade I'm sure there would be something similar here?

this is not an advocation to do anything yet, i'm saying that in another 2 weeks, if the weather stays the same, it will be a real choice?

what do you guys think?

After a few stories of deaths following people walking on frozen rivers (i know it wasnt deep ice) i dont think ill be taking that risk

[jukebox]

I was thinking, and DO NOT take this lightly... if this cold spell continues for another 2 weeks and the temps stay at or below zero, dipping much lower at night, the canlas may have deep enough ice to skate on, I'd measure it of course and have ropes and a life jacket, but it was done in the past and it's always been an ambition of mine.

The canadian sites say that ice is safe to skate on at four inches deep and safe to walk on at 3, so maybe a long dormant tradition could come back to life?

the Dutch are already excited about their Elfstedentocht , if it were not for the health and saftey brigade I'm sure there would be something similar here?

this is not an advocation to do anything yet, i'm saying that in another 2 weeks, if the weather stays the same, it will be a real choice?

what do you guys think?

Well my two penneth worth, another hobby of mine is fishing and I went for a bike ride around the back of Chasewater yesterday and there was about 5 kids all running and trying to bike down the canal When I stopped and told them to be careful the reply I got was "Its alright mate look" and three of them proceeded to bounce up and down like loons. Normally when ice is not very thick you can hear that cracking sound that makes you freeze, but nothing!! I put my bike down and scraped the snow back to check the depth and it was a good 4 to 6 inches. If you do decide to do it then make sure there is someone there with you with a rope and a big lump hammer and dont be fooled into thinking a life jacket will save you as if you go under and go out under the ice your in trouble (hence the mate with the rope and hammer) Be careful mate!!!!! Ps if Nick 2702 is on here there are footprints in the snow straight across The Swag pool Must be them Norton East Road delinquents.

[cyclonic happiness]

this is why i'd leave it at least another 2 weeks of freezing weather, my mother's ex boyfriend's son died under the ice so I know the risk.

The canal where i live is 4 feet deep and there are already footprints along the middle of it where some idiot has walked, skating is adifferent matter and needs much thicker ice.

My grandmother said in 1947 she skated the 8 miles from nuneaton to coventry and back along the cut, I've always wanted to do that

[jukebox]

Yes, orographic lift is a phrase used when the airflow meets much higher ground and is forced upward. When weather fronts move over high ground, the precipitation is more concentrated and heavier as the air is forced to rise considerably, creating much more precip than at lower levels. This is why when precip amounts are forecast, you'll get an estimation for lower levels and one for higher levels.

Hope this helps.

Thankyou W09 for that description muchly apprecited mate. Wheres all the usual suspects and the "will it snow in ......." brigade tonight ????

this is why i'd leave it at least another 2 weeks of freezing weather, my mother's ex boyfriend's son died under the ice so I know the risk.

The canal where i live is 4 feet deep and there are already footprints along the middle of it where some idiot has walked, skating is adifferent matter and needs much thicker ice.

My grandmother said in 1947 she skated the 8 miles from nuneaton to coventry and back along the cut, I've always wanted to do that

Another thing to remember is that it would be better to stick close to the nearside towpath bank if you do decide to do it. Firstly if you go through your easier to get to and secondly around trees on the far bank the water temperature can be higher and the ice may be thinner. With fishing in the colder weather the fish generally go where it is warmer ie deep water or under trees and foliage the two places you dont wanna end up!!!!!!!