General Model Output Discussion

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A new Model Output Discussion thread - Please try to keep on topic

All the latest Model Output is available on Netweather

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

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[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Forgive me if you believe that this post is off topic but this seemed the nearest thread for me to post these views.In the northern hemisphere polar region as a whole temperature profiles definitely show a marked decrease and greater extent than any year I have studied them in the past 15 years. Surely it greatly enhances a higher probability of a sustained colder winter for the UK in 2010.

There is much discussion on the Nino effect and it's effect on the position of the jet stream. But I find this argument by the Met Office to be a cop out to save a little face on falsely predicting a mild winter. When we consider the length of cumulative severe winters during the Dalton and Maunder minimum periods surely the Nino effect can be discounted as a major factor especially during low solar activity which have at present. Could it be possible that some of the models are perhaps less reliable because of this?

[Sawel]

Well the ECM is out and it shows what a struggle it will be for the Atlantic to get across the Meridian. Obviously some conflicting posts on the previous thread, but it should be remembered that the younger members have never seen charts like this.

It's fascinating stuff Ian, some places could see very large amounts of snow in any "battleground" scenario and after this we could get some bitter easterly winds coming in from the East. Exciting times...

[pyrotech]

Forgive me if you believe that this post is off topic but this seemed the nearest thread for me to post these views.In the northern hemisphere polar region as a whole temperature profiles definitely show a marked decrease and greater extent than any year I have studied them in the past 15 years. Surely it greatly enhances a higher probability of a sustained colder winter for the UK in 2010.

There is much discussion on the Nino effect and it's effect on the position of the jet stream. But I find this argument by the Met Office to be a cop out to save a little face on falsely predicting a mild winter. When we consider the length of cumulative severe winters during the Dalton and Maunder minimum periods surely the Nino effect can be discounted as a major factor especially during low solar activity which have at present. Could it be possible that some of the models are perhaps less reliable because of this?

Try this forum where it is discussed in depth

[jonboy]

What the models show is how difficult it is to call either a breakdown or reload to perhaps a less colder scenario either way it is no point in trying to compare with anything relaying to the 90's or 00's as this type of setup and the pattern that led to it is much more akin to the 60's 70's and 80's. For this reason I believe that we will have a reload but not as potent I believe that we will have several more periods of cold snowy weather this winter but not a true 47, or 63 as these are to be had within the next 5 years.It will be really intresting to compare the patern as we move through spring, summer autumn into next winter as to how 'modern' the pattern has become

[weather eater]

I'm not normally one for talking about deep FI evolutions but one thing I've noticed is this pattern coming up again and again this last couple of days.

A its an unusual chart and

B it’s odd to see it appear so often.

Ideas anyone.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello,

This is one for the experts but sorry Mods, not specifically a Model Discussion. Anyhows.

I've posted this on the CSE cold discusiion and would like the experts views on this.

Hello,

I heard on one of the threads earlier today that maybe we should be looking east and not to the southwest for the next bit of action, in fact way before late Tues/Wed. If you roll the animation sequence on the following, http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760 you can see the atlantic is not many inroads at all at the moment and the flow is stronger to our east where the bitter air remains. I will be looking due east in the next couple of days, for sure. Also keep an eye on the Dewpoints and the barometric trend as that should tell its own story.

Still plenty of fun yet!

Maybe this should be copied to the MO discussion thread too, mind you I'm no expert just my gut feeling.

Wintry Cheers

STORMBOY

Any thoughts

[Downpour]

Well the ECM is out and it shows what a struggle it will be for the Atlantic to get across the Meridian. Obviously some conflicting posts on the previous thread, but it should be remembered that the younger members have never seen charts like this.

Is it me or is this Atlantic breakdown getting downgraded? Rather than the mild Calvary arriving, it seems they might get as far as hants then be sent packing by the beast, perhaps after a rather bloody battle down Surrey way?!

I'm not normally one for talking about deep FI evolutions but one thing I've noticed is this pattern coming up again and again this last couple of days.

A its an unusual chart and

B it’s odd to see it appear so often.

Ideas anyone.

Truly bizarre. Can't remember ever seeing anything like it!

[Duane S.]

I'm not normally one for talking about deep FI evolutions but one thing I've noticed is this pattern coming up again and again this last couple of days.

A its an unusual chart and

B it’s odd to see it appear so often.

Ideas anyone.

Yeah I noticed that, it's a very good point. FI or no FI, it is an unusual looking chart and it has cropped up a fair bit of late.

[Sawel]

I'm not normally one for talking about deep FI evolutions but one thing I've noticed is this pattern coming up again and again this last couple of days.

A its an unusual chart and

B its odd to see it appear so often.

Ideas anyone.

Ian Brown made a good point about some of the model output this past few days, these charts are unique to some younger posters. That is a cold looking chart in my opinion, much of Eastern Britain would have heavy snow showers and temperatures would be cold/very cold.

These kind of charts we're seeing from +120 hrs onwards are a throwback to the 80's.

I would love for these charts to verify.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Sawel

[Iceni]

I'm not normally one for talking about deep FI evolutions but one thing I've noticed is this pattern coming up again and again this last couple of days.

A its an unusual chart and

B it's odd to see it appear so often.

Ideas anyone.

Could someone describe the conditions if it came to pass?

Edit: You are telepathic Sawel

Edited January 10, 2010 by Iceni

[sandstorm2]

Is it me or is this Atlantic breakdown getting downgraded? Rather than the mild Calvary arriving, it seems they might get as far as hants then be sent packing by the beast, perhaps after a rather bloody battle down Surrey way?!

Truly bizarre. Can't remember ever seeing anything like it!

I don't think all the met supercomputers in the world can sort this situation out, the models are at oddds with one another, ever seen a double pivot pendulum, it is totally unpredictable and that is the way the weather is at the moment. Think it is easier to read GP's posts as they will be as good an indication as to whats happening in the atmosphere as any of the models.

SS2

[Supercell]

I'm not normally one for talking about deep FI evolutions but one thing I've noticed is this pattern coming up again and again this last couple of days.

A its an unusual chart and

B it's odd to see it appear so often.

Ideas anyone.

Yes, it's quite exciting to see. An elongated scandi high attached to the siberian high bringing in some serious cold from THE coldest place in the northern hemisphere.

[Devon-Nelly]

Trying not to get my hopes up about Tuesday but its very hard lol. Hopefully we'll get some heavy snow and possibly some accumilations, the snow we had on Wed is only starting to melt now as the snow has turned wet from the powery stuff we've had all day.

But im not really taking much notice of the models as they struggle with these setups as it is, with a southerly tracking jet stream and a very cold pool of air at the surface across the Uk its going to cause them some headaches, i think its likely to turn less cold during the middle part of the week for the South and South West but staying pretty cold up North still before turning colder at the weekend possibly, i don't think we are out of the woods yet lol.

[weather eater]

Is it me or is this Atlantic breakdown getting downgraded? Rather than the mild Calvary arriving, it seems they might get as far as hants then be sent packing by the beast, perhaps after a rather bloody battle down Surrey way?!

Truly bizarre. Can't remember ever seeing anything like it!

I don't think either down or upgraded, as most recent model runs have depicted variations on a statement evolution, only a couple have really indicated the Atlantic winning out. If you view operational runs over a few days you get a feel for the most likely outcome, Bare in mind that each run is not necessarily more relevant than the last few runs. There are in my book no upgrades or downgrades, just different projections played out by a number crunching machine using data that’s already out of date.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Jethro, no this still stands.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60132-general-model-output-discussion/page__st__136

I was just showing that cold spells, even great ones, do wimper out.

BFTP

[Snowyowl9]

JMA shows a similar chart to what WE posted and cold uppers never that far away.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rjma1922.gif

[snowlight robbery]

Very new to all of this but learning quickly I think,Obviously lots more to it but have just played the 12z GFS through for coming week and am I right in saying it shows a battle of battles with precipitation type(rain,sleet,snow)as East pushes West then West fights back and vice versa.Would just like to know if I am starting to get the hang of my 1st step... GFS. Thanks

[nick sussex]

Lots of outcomes possible from the ECM ensembles, many of them colder than the operational run that we can see on wetterzentrale:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Here are the extended ones, some interesting ensemble members and the control run looks a bit cold !. Whats evident from that though is that only 2 members out of 50 over the next 15 days bring in anything Atlantic based. I think theres a very strong signal to keep the block intact at least to the east. It might be a case of a lull in proceedings whilst the block and the Atlantic have their little battle but given those ensembles the block isn't going anywhere.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden

Edited January 10, 2010 by nick sussex

[Nath]

Looking at the models it seems that a possible return to cold or even very cold is not out of the question in the next few days.

If this is really a 80s winter then its to prove it by winning the 50/50 cold v mild charts. We are overdue a bit of luck surely!!!

[chionomaniac]

Lots of outcomes possible from the ECM ensembles, many of them colder than the operational run that we can see on wetterzentrale:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

One can quite clearly see that FI is Wednesday from that, Ian. And furthermore there are more cold members than this morning at that point.

[weather eater]

One can quite clearly see that FI is Wednesday from that,

You say that C but that chart I posted must have shown now on about 6 of the last 7 runs on different models, A gigantic Scandi Hi, very unusual to see that sort of thing come up across a broad model spectrum.

[gottolovethisweather]

Posted Yesterday, 10:08 by TEITS

Fasinating watching this battle between the block and the Atlantic with F.I most certainly +72. In my experience of these synoptics the first push from the Atlantic usually results in a stalled front across Wales, W Midlands. What happens with the next push dictates whether it turns milder or remains cold. I would put the odds at 50/50 at the moment.

TEITS, if you're about. What are your latest odds having seen all the latest models.

Interestingly the flow is still very much from our EAST at current time and it will be more interesting within 24 hours of supposed breakdown.

Wintry Cheeers

STORMBOY

[Bobby]

18z coming out, Tuesday's blizzard is an all rain affair for SW England but with a good chance of snow for Wales, though very marginal to say the least. Beacons will get pasted I bet. Atlantic seems to be making more inroads than 12z.

[snowingtequila]

18z coming out, Tuesday's blizzard is an all rain affair for SW England but with a good chance of snow for Wales, though very marginal to say the least. Beacons will get pasted I bet. Atlantic seems to be making more inroads than 12z.

I must be looking at different 18 run to you! Low pressure looks further south, precip doesn't get as far east, looks like a snow event for SW to me before it retreats and the block fights back