South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[kaz]

what's puzzling me is that NW will it snow doda is saying 30%today 30% tue and then 15% wed so confused...

Suppose i will have to wait and see. dont expect any probs tonight but might have a few probs getting out to the patient tue night.. no matter what i will get there.. because im supper nurse haha

kaz x

Edited January 11, 2010 by kaz

[aspire27]

Does anyone know how another blanket of snowfall will effect the rest of the week with regards to the models with so much cold air at the surface?

[MP-R]

After a generally cold and cloudy day with the odd snow flurry, I was surprised when the heavens opened with very heavy snow grains which eventually led to whiteness everywhere in the centre of Bristol. Only the lightest of dustings but turned all the roads and pavements and trees white again.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

what's puzzling me is that NW will it snow doda is saying 30%today 30% tue and then 15% wed so confused...

Suppose i will have to wait and see. dont expect any probs tonight but might have a few probs getting out to the patient tue night.. no matter what i will get there.. because im supper nurse haha

kaz x

It updates purely from the GFS as far as I know.

It saying sleet for Dartmoor tomorrow, so its either gone cuckoo or the Met needn't waste their money on big fancy computers

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The UKMET GM very much follows the GFS 12Z, with the higher precip totals and further NE movement of the precipitation.

Still very much of snow with high totals for eastern Devon, west and north dorset, somerset, south wiltshire and into South wales.

Totals agreement on at least 5-10cms of snow for most people and 2 out of 3 going for the 20-30cms for alot of people, next biggy will be the 18Z for GFS and UAE and the 00Z's from the 3 models which should have a good steer by then.

What is the UAE model, how can it be accessed?

[SHOWERSFROMTHEWORDGO]

Yep, I remember struggling to school in Devon in the Winter of 62/63 (that's 1962/3, not 1862/3 btw).

None of this litigious claptrap health and safety nonsense then.

I blame Cherie Blair and the Human Rights Act. Why can't we have a Human Responsility Act too?

I'll shut up now.

I too am old enough to remember struggling to school in Jan 63, although even then it was closed for the first week of term.

Noggin, you're getting your politics in a muddle. School closures have nothing whatsoever to do with the Human Rights Act (beither has Cherie Blaire actually). You should blame instead those obsessive and small-minded parents who sue schools and local authorities if their precious child slips on the ice (most of them probably Tory voters, if they can afford the lawyers fees)

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I too am old enough to remember struggling to school in Jan 63, although even then it was closed for the first week of term.

Noggin, you're getting your politics in a muddle. School closures have nothing whatsoever to do with the Human Rights Act (beither has Cherie Blaire actually). You should blame instead those obsessive and small-minded parents who sue schools and local authorities if their precious child slips on the ice (most of them probably Tory voters, if they can afford the lawyers fees)

If they can afford the fees (which you don't pay if you win) why would they sue in the first place? As a Tory voter I would never dream of suing a school, council, MoD, NHS yada yada yada) All it does is push the taxes up.

No brainer really.

Anyway, I am going to venture out in the snow and ice for a drink at the pub.

[SteveB]

Sounds just about perfect set-up tomorrow/Wednesday. Heavy snow which hopefully last for much of Tuesday night Wednesday morning givng anywhere between 10-30cm's.

Then a day or two of lying snow and then a thaw.

Where's Ian these days?

[Methuselah]

New thread is approaching...

[Paul T]

Looking at upper air temps, orientation set against surface temps ... I think this will fall as rain or sleety stuff.

I have sometimes got these things badly wrong, but I am unconvinced this is a snow event.

Anyway, down here in the south-west next weekend is going to feel positively spring-like after all this cold ...

I refer to Devon and cornwall:

I agree.

However, if challendged to try and reason MO's forecast (with even Cornwall and Plymouth included in their warnings?!) i would say that as the low approaches it will induce a South Easterly that has been cooled and has arrived at a rate of knots from a very cold France (Overnight temps of -5 and colder). This means that the airmass between the clouds and the land is actually very cold, in comparison to the measurements of the usual upper temps, which will be farily warm.

With this is mind, little infiltration of the mild air and very heavy ppn potentially dragging down the colder air, provides a reason for some cold temps. Many models are in agreement that temperatures will be dropping slightly from around 6am to 3pm tomorrow for Devon.

NAE still going for heavy snowfall across devon and east cornwall.

However, in my opinion, only areas above 300 meters will get snow, below this may be a period of wet snow/sleet, into very cold rain later, and 2.5 to 4 oC.

Would love to be proved wrong though.

Paul