South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Mark Parsons]

Been snowing here v.lightly for past half hour and am on south coast!

Anyway tomorrow could suprise some of us!

Dont be suprised though if it starts raining it often does then turns to snow as the ppn drags down the temp.

Think it could be a messy time on most low ground but with abit of elavation could turn out interesting, remember we have wind coming with this lot that is quite unusual, some of you might not have experienced wind driven snow, much more exciting than fluffy stuff!!

[Lynxus]

Im surprised that theres no warnings about flooding.

If it falls as rain on 4 inches of snow. Surely the increased melt rate is just gonna cause chaos.

Maybe they are that certain it will be snow they havent bothered looking at the flood risk.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Devon in 1963 - BBC

Now _that_ was snow!

[noggin]

Hi all

Lots of debate regarding tomorrows possible snow. You have to differentiate this from the last low that tracked into the Channel a few weeks ago. As the low heads east it will pull in low dew points and drier air from the se, also in your favour is that the precip will be heavy, it's a very good set up for significant snow.

The uncertainty at the moment is how far ne the precip gets, it could possibly turn to rain later especially towards western parts of the region. Anyway it should be interesting to see how this develops so good luck and enjoy the snow, bear in mind though with strong winds there is likely to be drifting so take care.

Welcome, stranger! Thanks for that interesting info ....we frequently feel as if we don't exist over here!

Hope you are having lots of luvverly snow too!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Hi all

Lots of debate regarding tomorrows possible snow. You have to differentiate this from the last low that tracked into the Channel a few weeks ago. As the low heads east it will pull in low dew points and drier air from the se, also in your favour is that the precip will be heavy, it's a very good set up for significant snow.

The uncertainty at the moment is how far ne the precip gets, it could possibly turn to rain later especially towards western parts of the region. Anyway it should be interesting to see how this develops so good luck and enjoy the snow, bear in mind though with strong winds there is likely to be drifting so take care.

Hi Nick

Thanks for the update! Always welcome.

Am hoping that I see a nice lot of snow to record a personal best for here before it all melts and normality returns... down to just 2 lines on the oil sensor now! (basically pumping the sludge from the bottom)

[Snowman15]

MetO Orange Weather Warning = Be Prepared FOR A NON EVENT!

[snowdog]

Temp hovering around 0.7C here,and a light drizzle falling with the odd tiny snowgrain.Just taken the dog for a walk and some surfaces are very slippy with rain falling onto the ice that is still fairly widespread on the pavements.Still hoping for snow tomorrow seeing that we haven't had much yet!

[Evening thunder]

Well the MetO have gone and replaced the heavy snow symbols for Exeter for sleet. How did I KNOW this would happen?? GFS has been sticking to its guns of bringing 850hpa temps of over 0c in quite quickly tomorrow, and the NAE shows them a bit better but quite marginally close to some positive 850's.. Haven't seen the 06z of either yet though.

I have been telling a friend that I'm not so sure on this Event that the MetO have given us an early warning for, and even a forecaster that works for the Met Office and lives in the same street as him has been quite confident of heavy snow and blizzards Tuesday apparently.. But I wasn't so sure and am still not so sure about this for my location anyway.

I'd love to be wrong though of course!

[lfcdude]

well tomorrow's event looks interesting of course im hoping of blizzards, very surprised some people have had drizzle, still no thaw here

[nick sussex]

Welcome, stranger! Thanks for that interesting info ....we frequently feel as if we don't exist over here!

Hope you are having lots of luvverly snow too!

Thanks, well we did have quite alot here in sw France so i did join in on some of the fun, set to warm up here from tomorrow. It really is a very interesting set up for tomorrow, later on after the latest NAE i'll update the thread. I'm sure Ian F will be on later especially as i think he's posted in here quite alot recently.

I'm going to enjoy watching all the drama unfolding from here but the set up could give serious amounts of snow!

[noggin]

Devon in 1963 - BBC

Now _that_ was snow!

That brought back memories, Matt!

For I was there. Not Dartmoor, but Exeter. I remember walking to school and building a snowman with my friend from over the road.

[lfcdude]

tomorrow looks absoulty superb

[Duane S.]

Drizzle here for the past 90 minutes in Wareham. Doesn't bode well for those on the south coast for tomorrow

[Totoro]

Im surprised that theres no warnings about flooding.

If it falls as rain on 4 inches of snow. Surely the increased melt rate is just gonna cause chaos.

4 inches of snow is only 'about' 10mm of rain so no big deal really. Now if there's heavy rain on top of that then it's a different matter.

[Lynxus]

4 inches of snow is only 'about' 10mm of rain so no big deal really. Now if there's heavy rain on top of that then it's a different matter.

Whats what i said wasnt it?

if it falls as rain on 4inches of snow?

IE: 4inches of snow melts + the rain.

Anyway.

Fingers crossed for snow.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

That brought back memories, Matt!

For I was there. Not Dartmoor, but Exeter. I remember walking to school and building a snowman with my friend from over the road.

I wasn't :lol: but looks pretty impressive from a snow depth POV... Nick, I assume nothing like that tomorrow? :winky:

Most snow I've seen was in Finland where it was chest high in places... walking was more akin to swimming, luckily it was superb powder!

No Elf and Safety there... bonfires on the frozen lake!

[BristolBlizzard]

Hi all

Lots of debate regarding tomorrows possible snow. You have to differentiate this from the last low that tracked into the Channel a few weeks ago. As the low heads east it will pull in low dew points and drier air from the se, also in your favour is that the precip will be heavy, it's a very good set up for significant snow.

The uncertainty at the moment is how far ne the precip gets, it could possibly turn to rain later especially towards western parts of the region. Anyway it should be interesting to see how this develops so good luck and enjoy the snow, bear in mind though with strong winds there is likely to be drifting so take care.

thanks nick .always enjoy reading your great posts .

[Sharkbait]

I can't see anything significant here tomorrow, I suspect it will snow for a time, perhaps heavy too but wet snow which is not likely to settle, possibly just a bit slushy about.

[robnor1]

tomorrow looks absoulty superb

You honestly think it'll snow that bad recent events show that snow amounts are always overstated

[Dartmoor_Matt]

You honestly think it'll snow that bad recent events show that snow amounts are always overstated

And in some cases understated.

There are various reasons why this is more likely to be snow, although no guarantees. All of which can be seen on this thread and others.

Anyway, still no signs of a thaw here. Looking promising.

Must go, supposed to be working!

[Iceberg]

Well it still seems to be on, in some form or another, I am still skeptical, particular as this is the forecast for me (12 hrs of heavy snow and gusts to 40mph).

[noggin]

I think that tomorrow is an absolute knife-edge situation, with regard to both the location of the precipitation and the type of precipitation.

It really will be down to "nowcasting".

You only have to think about how Sunday's snowmageddon didn't turn out as expected. Even as close as Saturday evening the MetO were predicting heavy snow for the SE and widespread snow for the whole of the South. It didn't happen.

I'm not criticising, just saying how very difficult it is to predict this sort of stuff.

But it's nerve-wracking. We'll all be on the prozac come tomorrow! :winky: :lol: :lol:

Well it still seems to be on, in some form or another, I am still skeptical, particular as this is the forecast for me (12 hrs of heavy snow and gusts to 40mph).

I'm not liking the look of that pesky ESE wind.

It might blow it all more to the West.

PS Although nick sussex did say that this wind direction would work in our favour, and he is far more knowledgeable than I.

We'll just have to wait and see. Don't get our hopes too high, nor be too despondent.

Edited January 11, 2010 by noggin

[Iceberg]

I agree, as much as I Was cursing the METO yesterday, we have to remember that we are asking them to forecast to within 1C and to within 5mm of precip, even doing this 24hrs out is difficult.

Maybe worth saying that the latest 06Z NAE keeps the snow going even for South Devon, whereas GFS 06Z takes things very complicated with a formation of a secondary shortwave into the SE and then up the country, the shortwave would bring in warmer temps as is cuts of the SE flow(at least here in the SW).

[dogs32]

I reckon there will be some large totals from this....

looking like a near deifnate at presnet

edit Rich sent you a meesage..pm

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32

[microclimate]

Drizzle here for the past 90 minutes in Wareham. Doesn't bode well for those on the south coast for tomorrow

Just started snowing here and sticking on pavements and roofs already, nice pleasant surprise.