Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[madian2]

No sign of a thaw here in Blaenavon, North Gwent, Temperature not above freezing all day.

What are your predications for this area tomorrow?

you should be ok mate being where you are

while your here any chance you could tell me how the road is like on the brynmawr to bleanavon rd as i have to go to pontypool tonight

[mammys]

back to weather temp is dropping fast here 0.6c at the mo

[andymusic]

No sign of a thaw here in Blaenavon, North Gwent, Temperature not above freezing all day.

What are your predications for this area tomorrow?

1ft of level snow with 2ft drifts

[keithlucky]

Ian furgesson weather forecaste link http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/ cracking forecaste for wales and hes been correct over christmas on what type of precipation we have in the swest uk.

[andymusic]

you can see the big dump of snow coming on the meto's sat pics

[valley blue_501]

you should be ok mate being where you are

while your here any chance you could tell me how the road is like on the brynmawr to bleanavon rd as i have to go to pontypool tonight

[mammys]

back to weather temp is dropping fast here 0.6c at the mo

You can travel on the road, but i would take your time, as Torfaen have failed to grit the roads in and around Blaenavon since last Thursday!

If you know the area you will be aware, that the road is prone to having snow blown on it from the Mountain, making the road slippery in places!

[Ukwoody]

looking promising!

[CardiffStorm]

Snow/Ice has thawed a lot here today. Temperature is currently 0.7 DgC with 92% humidity which I think is whats causing the thawing.

MetO have an 80% chance of severe weather for me tomorrow afternoon/evening and into Wednesday :lol:

[Marcus_surfer]

Looking good,esp inland

[CLH the red dragon]

Absolute beginner here but, for tomorrow,

1. 850's are still sub zero, look like -5 to me?

2. Air is stil cold. Feels colder today and maxes of 2 degrees or so?

3. Massive amount of precipitation looks to me?

Tomorrow looks potentially v nasty.

[Blackjack]

1ft of level snow with 2ft drifts

Was that tongue in cheek or an educated guess.

1ft with 2ft drifts would be amazing. Just hope it pushes far enough NE to me above Abergavenny

[DeepSnow]

So still looks like the heavy snow is on for tomorrow night into wednesday? So a chance we might actually get as much as 4-6inches here?

Had light - moderate snow here most the day, stopped now and a bit misty. I'd feels like it has gotten colder through the day, temp now 0.5C

[Totoro]

NAE says turning to rain on Wednesday morning:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis12/ukuk/prty/10011312_1112.gif

[andy_leics22]

1ft of level snow with 2ft drifts

That was a joke right?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looks like it could turn to rain on its backege for coastal areas.

GFS looks all snow to me for South Wales:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs302.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

NAE also looks good:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis12/ukuk/t850/10011218_1112.gif < Upper air temps quite low

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis12/ukuk/prty/10011218_1112.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/11/basis12/ukuk/prty/10011300_1112.gif

[Thunder Snow]

Heres my thoughts for this area

Less Cold

Well here we are after a long cold period for all parts of the UK, the cold spell is loosening its grip across the UK. However there is still some rain/sleet and snow around across Central England/Northern Wales/Ireland and Northern England, however the snow is mainly falling across the hills and will be light in nature. Down to lower levels and towards the coast it is likely to be or rain, further inland it will be a wintry mixture. There still will be a cold Easterly breeze. Further North across Scotland is will be cloudy with some rain/sleet and snow moving into Southern areas, further North there will be some sunny spells, but still feeling cold. Further South it will be mostly cloudy and cold. Wherever you have snow you will see a slight thaw, this could refreeze later tonight when temperatures drop to freezing or below.

Into tonight then the rain/sleet and snow mix will continue its journey across Scotland, turning heavy over the hills for a time. Elsewhere is will be cold with cloudy skies, so temperatures will stay towards the freezing mark or just below. Ice maybe a factor where snow has settled, so take care during the early hours.

Tuesday and its a tricky one. A weather system will try to move in from the South-West, bringing rain at first. As it moves in it will bump into the Colder air, so heavy snow is likely across the hills of the South-West, with snow possible at lower levels for a time, but i think this may turn back to rain. As the system moves into South Wales/Central England and Southern Areas there is again likely to be some heavy snow for a time, again i feel is will be border-line for low level areas but im not ruling out a covering/dusting in places. Wheres as higher routes will see snow with totals reaching 10-20cm. For Northern Ireland it will be a cold and cloudy start with some light showers across the coast, as we move towards the afternoon and evening the rain/sleet and snow mix may just reach this area, with snow favored for higher routes, but again lower levels may see something. Scotland will start cold and cloudy with some snow flurries likely, with maybe something heavier for a time over central hills. Eastern Scotland will be damp and cold. Towards Central England and the South East it will be cold and overcast.

I would just like to stress there is alot of uncertainty as to how far North this system will get, at the moment i think it will stretch from Southampton area/ across much of Wales and turning patchy across Ireland. The snow is likely to be heavy for a time, the system is likely to begin to turn patchy and weaken towards dawn on Wednesday. Ahead of the system there is likely to be some wintry showers across Central England/Towards the South East and Northern England, but at the moment i don't think these are any cause for concern.

Wednesday the main band will weaken with snow effecting Wales and the South of England, it may just make it into Central England.

However there is alot of uncertainty about tomorrows event and into Wednesday, but this is how it looks to me and the moment. This forecast is subject to change and i will try to update it tonight.

Weather Warning: Snow is likely to effect the hills of Northern England through-out the day, giving a covering of 10-15cm maybe 20cm locally.

Weather Warning: ICE: Where any snow has began to thaw, ice is likely to be a widespread problem as temperatures dip to freezing or just below.

Weather Watch: An Atlantic system will start to move in from the South West, this is likely to bring some heavy snow towards the South-West/Most areas of Wales and maybe Central England for a time. Snow is likely to be heavy at times, with falls of 2-5cm across low lying areas with 10-15cm (20cm locally) across higher routes. Winds are likely to be gusty at times, so blizzards conations are likely more so over higher routes.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

UKMO 12z also looks good.

Front running into upper air temps of around -2/-3C over South Wales- Snow seems likely in that case.

[keithlucky]

UKMO 12z also looks good.

Front running into upper air temps of around -2/-3C over South Wales- Snow seems likely in that case.

Looking at about 12hrs snow event 6incs should be a fair call ,hopefully front doesent reach s wales until after dark,midday forecaste ,i like to see the front struggling to make progress northwards a sign that the HP is holding its ground and hopefully front stalling over swales.

[pascalsbongo]

Remember that Friday afternoon a few years ago when Swansea became gridlocked as everyone panicked to get home, lol , within a few hours it was rapidly thawing and more or less all gone by the morning.

Are the temperatures, prior to that event taking place lower this time around, ?and also are they lower against other similar scenarios time past?

What makes this set up any different from the one mentioned above?

Sleety on the coast at best , no settling snow unless you have reasonable altitude or are inland.

All the usual suspects in the valleys will get a pasting as it always is, with whiteout conditions and news reporters saying of "extreme weather in south wales" except that wont be coastal areas.

The end was yesterday for us on the coast.

RIP winter part 1, or Part 2 if you count the few day gap of milder weather in Dec.

I have moved on and praying for Part 3 to come asap.

Any ideas on rough dates for part 3 yet anybody??

[NAOwillgetyou]

Please can someone explain how we can possibly get anything else but rain tomorrow. 850 temeratures look to be close to - 3 at best giving surface temps of around 4 C dew points look to be around 0 C and the source of the air is mild atlantic dross. What am I missing here???

I can appreciate that the black mountains and beacons will get a pasting but I really cant see anything but cold rain for costal areas. What is the missing ingredient that will hopefully deliver all this snow??

Can anyone with a good working knowledge of synoptics address the point above, I just cant see how this can deliver snow at sea level

[Snowyowl9]

Mildest day today for 9days if you call 0.4c and no sign of any thawing even

the trees are the same as this morning with snow cover,2 inches last night.

[mrmonopoly]

Remember that Friday afternoon a few years ago when Swansea became gridlocked as everyone panicked to get home, lol , within a few hours it was rapidly thawing and more or less all gone by the morning.

Are the temperatures, prior to that event taking place lower this time around, ?and also are they lower against other similar scenarios time past?

What makes this set up any different from the one mentioned above?

Sleety on the coast at best , no settling snow unless you have reasonable altitude or are inland.

All the usual suspects in the valleys will get a pasting as it always is, with whiteout conditions and news reporters saying of "extreme weather in south wales" except that wont be coastal areas.

The end was yesterday for us on the coast.

RIP winter part 1, or Part 2 if you count the few day gap of milder weather in Dec.

I have moved on and praying for Part 3 to come asap.

Any ideas on rough dates for part 3 yet anybody??

For the next week at least for us 2 temps will be back to normal and boy we are in for a bashing when it comes to rainfall later on in the week into next week. Who knows what feb will bring tho.

[djwayne]

Couple of thoughts.

Why have meto got a warning for heavy snow out for tonight when it seems little if anything is happening.

Secondly the system that if moving in from the soouth west seems to be getting a lot nearer according to the satelite pictures is it possible it will arrive earlier than expected?

[valley blue_501]

Was that tongue in cheek or an educated guess.

1ft with 2ft drifts would be amazing. Just hope it pushes far enough NE to me above Abergavenny

i would think that its very educated guess! we have already had two snow falls in Blaenavon of around 1 foot!

[pascalsbongo]

Can anyone with a good working knowledge of synoptics address the point above, I just cant see how this can deliver snow at sea level

Hasnt this always been the way though? i mean what is so different this time around?

We will be covered in plenty of drizzly dribble, .... dribble from the valley folk salivating at the feast which is all theirs.

They wont even throw us any scraps and as i said earlier , for us on the coast anyway, we went out with a whimper yesterday.

[bennytes]

Hasnt this always been the way though? i mean what is so different this time around?

We will be covered in plenty of drizzly dribble, .... dribble from the valley folk salivating at the feast which is all theirs.

They wont even throw us any scraps and as i said earlier , for us on the coast anyway, we went out with a whimper yesterday.

erm, feast?

yer aving a larf aincha?