South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

[Methuselah]

Here goes...

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[pinkertonsurly]

Why it will snow in my area tomorrow evening:

1. Last week, on Tuesday, I was supposed to go to a drinks party about 8pm. The snow started falling about 4pm, and by 7, the roads were pretty nasty. So I didn't go.

2. Tomorrow, I am supposed to drive from Winchester to Guildford, leaving about 6.30pm and returning about 11. Therefore...

Plus, looking at the most recent BBC forecast, it looks pretty much as if light snow will start falling in Hampshire about early evening, continuing overnight before fizzling out

[SunnyBournemouth]

DORSETBRED wrote: "Well, it's been drizzle in Bournemouth since 6am, and given that it is below freezing and has been all morning, I feel tomorrow is set for a very wet rainy day, as the colder air even when it was here, just couldn't help get it together in this area.

Given the lack of cold air here, the front will makes it way through and the battleground will be further east & north of here."

I'm no expert but reading bits and pieces on other threads, as the low pressure moves in it drags colder air in from a SE direction from the continent so although its relatively warm here at the moment we could just get a bit of wet snow mid afternoon but before moving off this could then change back to sleet and then rain. Its very much a wait and see scenario (as always in this location). I always use the maxim, expect nothing and then you won't be dissappointed when nothing happens!

[iowpompeylee]

DORSETBRED wrote: "Well, it's been drizzle in Bournemouth since 6am, and given that it is below freezing and has been all morning, I feel tomorrow is set for a very wet rainy day, as the colder air even when it was here, just couldn't help get it together in this area.

Given the lack of cold air here, the front will makes it way through and the battleground will be further east & north of here."

I'm no expert but reading bits and pieces on other threads, as the low pressure moves in it drags colder air in from a SE direction from the continent so although its relatively warm here at the moment we could just get a bit of wet snow mid afternoon but before moving off this could then change back to sleet and then rain. Its very much a wait and see scenario (as always in this location). I always use the maxim, expect nothing and then you won't be dissappointed when nothing happens!

i had to write something.....................................its so quiet!!!!! snow for us all tommorow!!!! thats what i think!!!! v heavy for a while!!! get your sledges ready because it wont be round for long!!!

[coxxy22]

lol init like a morgue in here lol

yeah fingers crossed we will see a bit of snow

[CaptainHappy]

hello...hello...hello..........

now i have just climbed out of my daze, did i just hear the bbc (south today) suggest up to 8 inches of snow for tomorrow? are they out of their minds or just really bored of seeing this thread so empty? ill believe it when i see it

[slb97]

Busying up in here now lol! Our little thread is one of the smallest, never mind come the summer when we're enjoying watching thunderstorms over the sea we'll be busier!

I saw snow forecast for us on south today although she kept going on about Dorset even though we had some 'heavier' graphics over Hampshire too!

[iowpompeylee]

hello...hello...hello..........

now i have just climbed out of my daze, did i just hear the bbc (south today) suggest up to 8 inches of snow for tomorrow? are they out of their minds or just really bored of seeing this thread so empty? ill believe it when i see it

i really think we will get hammered!!! i do think it will turn to rain by midday!! but one more curtain call before the mild sets in!!! i think the met office will upgrade everyone to the orange be prepared warning soon!!!

[CaptainHappy]

Busying up in here now lol! Our little thread is one of the smallest, never mind come the summer when we're enjoying watching thunderstorms over the sea we'll be busier!

I saw snow forecast for us on south today although she kept going on about Dorset even though we had some 'heavier' graphics over Hampshire too!

ah dorset suits me just fine. i still stand by 'ill believe it when i see it though'. i cant wait to be put right tomorrow (possibly):unsure:

and quite right. it will be busy enough in here in the summer. tbh i cant wait for it. currently taking orders for the first spanish plume as we speak...lol

[kent]

HI ALL. Just got in from work and trying to glean whats expected for Poole tomorrow. Wife says ITV showed the low from sw not reaching Dorset. But from the mood on here maybe an upgrade. whats the latest? Dont need much to top up last weeks dismal total lol.

[slb97]

IOWPompeylee - I think it's meant to come in the afternoon/evening and overnight before fizzling out Wednesday am. It's moving north east but at how fast a rate I'm not sure.

I would be delighted if Dorset got snow, I keep reading posts from Dorestians in the southwest thread who haven't seen much so I've got my fingers crossed for them. Amounts are uncertain, I think southtoday mentioned 20 cm to cover themselves; mind you I wasn't expecting 18cm here last week so you never know!

HI ALL. Just got in from work and trying to glean whats expected for Poole tomorrow. Wife says ITV showed the low from sw not reaching Dorset. But from the mood on here maybe an upgrade. whats the latest? Dont need much to top up last weeks dismal total lol.

Hi Kent!

See if you can watch the local BBC website weather forecast that was on southtoday at 6.30 (not sure when they upload it onto the website though). Dorset seemed very much in the firing line and you have an 'orange' warning on the met office. If there are to be any glitches I think it would be because we're on the coast so it could be sleet/rain or the front moves north and east quicker than expected. North Devon/Wales etc seem to have the most coming (e.g. 20cm) and are in the most 'reliable' zone for snowfall if you know what I mean.

Really hope it snows and snows in Dorset for you though

[kent]

IOWPompeylee - I think it's meant to come in the afternoon/evening and overnight before fizzling out Wednesday am. It's moving north east but at how fast a rate I'm not sure.

I would be delighted if Dorset got snow, I keep reading posts from Dorestians in the southwest thread who haven't seen much so I've got my fingers crossed for them. Amounts are uncertain, I think southtoday mentioned 20 cm to cover themselves; mind you I wasn't expecting 18cm here last week so you never know!

Hi Kent!

See if you can watch the local BBC website weather forecast that was on southtoday at 6.30 (not sure when they upload it onto the website though). Dorset seemed very much in the firing line and you have an 'orange' warning on the met office. If there are to be any glitches I think it would be because we're on the coast so it could be sleet/rain or the front moves north and east quicker than expected. North Devon/Wales etc seem to have the most coming (e.g. 20cm) and are in the most 'reliable' zone for snowfall if you know what I mean.

Really hope it snows and snows in Dorset for you though

AH bless. Thank you for the update, lets hope we can both build enormous snowmen and then watch the rain dissolve them lol. Fingers crossed it would be nice to see if only for a few hours to take some pics.

[slb97]

Just been reading south west thread and there was a link to one of the weather presenters blogs which I clicked on and he's good. Seems like it won't be reaching this far west after all (but on the plus side I'd rather see nothing than heavy rain!)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

[kent]

There is a sw bias to his forecasts and he tends to deal only with his specific area. Some other pundits are predicting as far east as London. I guess its wait and see.

Nice thing is the east wind factor lowers temps right down to ground level so a greater chance of snow plus the later in the day it reaches us the colder again. Im remaining hopeful. If nothing happens then its time to hang up my netweather boots, for I feel that this is last chance saloon lol. Edit that last remark they are all getting excited about an even colder reload in a weeks time lol. And so it goes on.

[coxxy22]

well the bbc forecast i saw this evening had a nice white patch over us from about 22:00 - 01:00

like kent says hopefully by this time we should be nice and cold

[slb97]

Thanks Kent - I suppose I just thought that because he was a forecaster he would probably have more detailed charts etc to go on.

Yep the BBC forecast was a good one and so very different to the picture painted in Ian F's blog! You're right in that the later it comes hopefully the colder it will be.

I've seen the satellite pictures of the low coming in and it looks like a monster whatever it ends up doing here!!

Still fingers crossed (especially for our Dorset chums!)

[flyer]

Evening Lamp Watchers

As folk are a tad subdued thought I might spice things up a little so have copy and pasted a post from GP (GOD in weather circles) You will find it under General Model Output Discussion 13.38 approx

All together now ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE ...............dedum dedum

Indeed Paul, the 06z NAE and NNM have trended towards a solution where the low approaching from the SW develops a short wave which cuts SE and becomes quite slow moving acoss the Channel. There is potential for sustained moderate intensity precipitation over 12-15 hours from SW england, much of Wales and central southern England (NMM slightly further north). The circulation developing around the low has 850 and 1000 hP winds from the South-east and east, becoming northerly as it pulls away eastwards. This drags down some of the colder air to the north and 850 values are no higher than -2 C with dew points below freezing throughout. That looks like a substantial fall of snow for large parts of the SW.

A transitory ridge topples in on Thursday which should enable the snow to persist for another 24 hours before the next trough drops in from the Atlantic bringing snow on the leading edge before turning to rain.

The ECM is less convincing about the short wave sending it quickly SE and much less precipitation whilst the GEM has everything a lot further south which would take the snow threat further south.

Longer term, both GEM and GFS ensemble mean guidance suggests a significant block to develop over Northern Scandinavia days 11-15 resulting in something of a standoff situation with the UK stuck in a transition between mild air to the west and colder air to the east.

[CaptainHappy]

*dribble* :lol:

[gottolovethisweather]

Evening Lamp Watchers

As folk are a tad subdued thought I might spice things up a little so have copy and pasted a post from GP (GOD in weather circles) You will find it under General Model Output Discussion 13.38 approx

All together now ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE ...............dedum dedum

Indeed Paul, the 06z NAE and NNM have trended towards a solution where the low approaching from the SW develops a short wave which cuts SE and becomes quite slow moving acoss the Channel. There is potential for sustained moderate intensity precipitation over 12-15 hours from SW england, much of Wales and central southern England (NMM slightly further north). The circulation developing around the low has 850 and 1000 hP winds from the South-east and east, becoming northerly as it pulls away eastwards. This drags down some of the colder air to the north and 850 values are no higher than -2 C with dew points below freezing throughout. That looks like a substantial fall of snow for large parts of the SW.

A transitory ridge topples in on Thursday which should enable the snow to persist for another 24 hours before the next trough drops in from the Atlantic bringing snow on the leading edge before turning to rain.

The ECM is less convincing about the short wave sending it quickly SE and much less precipitation whilst the GEM has everything a lot further south which would take the snow threat further south.

Longer term, both GEM and GFS ensemble mean guidance suggests a significant block to develop over Northern Scandinavia days 11-15 resulting in something of a standoff situation with the UK stuck in a transition between mild air to the west and colder air to the east.

Indeed, that's where my money would go.

I believe my snow aint gonna totally until nearer the weekend at least, then who knows, I favour a scandi high. Anyway I'm not downbeat considering I currently have had 14 days and counting days of snow lying since the atlantic rollercoaster got shut down in mid december, certainly not bad for lowland central southern england.

It aint over til the fat lady sings.

Cheers

STORMBOY

[slb97]

Thanks Flyer,

I've heard bits and bobs about a possible 'shortwave' but it went over my head unfortunately! I'm still not convinced about anything reaching us (mainly due to what I've read on south west thread and trying to make sense of the charts I see on there etc) but time will tell. My partner manages a couple of Meals on Wheels central southern regions so he started to panic after watching South Today; I've told him to chill out a little!

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks Flyer,

I've heard bits and bobs about a possible 'shortwave' but it went over my head unfortunately! I'm still not convinced about anything reaching us (mainly due to what I've read on south west thread and trying to make sense of the charts I see on there etc) but time will tell. My partner manages a couple of Meals on Wheels central southern regions so he started to panic after watching South Today; I've told him to chill out a little!

SLB,

Do you still have lying snow in Portsmouth or has it long since gone

Regards

STORMBOY

[flyer]

Thanks Flyer,

I've heard bits and bobs about a possible 'shortwave' but it went over my head unfortunately! I'm still not convinced about anything reaching us (mainly due to what I've read on south west thread and trying to make sense of the charts I see on there etc) but time will tell. My partner manages a couple of Meals on Wheels central southern regions so he started to panic after watching South Today; I've told him to chill out a little!

OK Slb try this then

BBC online video weather from Elizabeth Saary updated 8.42 pm

Edit : Sorry I should have added : Tell him to keep panicking

[slb97]

Hi Stormboy,

I'm actually in Horndean (6 miles north of Portsmouth) at the moment where we still have lots of lying snow from Tuesday night. Portsmouth still have it in gardens etc but the roads/pavements are fairly clear if not very icy apparently! I think Pompey had about 4 to 5" in total which is amazing for down there! We had slightly more I think.

Been reading the model discussion thread and people are talking about the shortwave again. Also one poster just showed some charts saying there would be chaos at rush hour over the south on Wednesday. Sorry to be a pain but are you able to explain that in a little more detail please so I can keep my other half 'in the picture' so to speak re arrangements for work.

Any help gratefully received but don't worry if not. Thanks

[coxxy22]

nah we still got snow on the ground here been here for 7 days now lol

well its more like ice now lol

[slb97]

Thanks Flyer - she is saying the same thing as South Today lol! I must stop reading the south west thread I think!