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South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

Still lots of snow in Southsea, about 2-3 inches, but has been melting the last couple of days. My road (& pavement) is still covered in snow, with just tyre tracks down it, quite amazing really! blink.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hi Stormboy,

Sorry to be a pain but are you able to explain that in a little more detail please so I can keep my other half 'in the picture' so to speak re arrangements for work.

Any help gratefully received but don't worry if not. Thanks biggrin.gif

Ummm. No, in one word, I just lurk and try to pick up on what they say, what I think may happen, study charts, follow my Davis Weather Station's live data, listen to fellow weather nut friends/relatives opinions and THEN mix it all together with my own gut feeling. What is a shortwave, a secondary?

Also, I think I have made a big 'mistake' by suggesting a low diving south-eastwards as the MO chart show the deep low heading northwards along the western periphery and heading to iceland so I can make out. oops.gif As I mentioned in the big boys room, the MO Discussion thread.

Cheers

STORMBOY

Edited by STORMBOY
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Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms followed by snow (preferably on the same day!)
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire

Didn't catch latest BBC forecasts tonight but south west thread says they've given rain for Dorset/coast now so will be same here I imagine. I don't want to think about how that's going to react with all the snow we've got lying around - ick!!

Sorry Stormboy - forgot to say thanks for the reply smile.gif

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Posted
  • Location: chilbolton observatory (North Hampshire when home)
  • Weather Preferences: Good dump of snow or a damn good thunderstorm
  • Location: chilbolton observatory (North Hampshire when home)

Just been reading south west thread and there was a link to one of the weather presenters blogs which I clicked on and he's good. Seems like it won't be reaching this far west after all (but on the plus side I'd rather see nothing than heavy rain!)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

Hey Slb that bloke is a spoiler :yahoo:

Check out the sat picy it shows humongous amounts of moisture (white stuff) pressure is pretty low at 963 mb so pretty unstable air about

A short wave running up the channel so a little extra rush hour bonus

Low pressures are notoriously unpredictable at the now cast, the blighters never go where you want them to. They often whizz off to the right into France. So if this baby goes straight ahead its game on for 15cm +

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Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms followed by snow (preferably on the same day!)
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire

Thanks Flyer - why do you think the BBC appear to have 'downgraded' the south west event tonight then? Just interested because those watching the teatime weather will be expecting something else bless em especially if they don't see anymore forecasts!!

Flyer - just in case you reply fairly soon - I'm off to bedfordshire now lazy.gif so please don't think I'm ignoring you if you don't get a response!

Night all

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Posted
  • Location: chilbolton observatory (North Hampshire when home)
  • Weather Preferences: Good dump of snow or a damn good thunderstorm
  • Location: chilbolton observatory (North Hampshire when home)

Thanks Flyer - why do you think the BBC appear to have 'downgraded' the south west event tonight then? Just interested because those watching the teatime weather will be expecting something else bless em especially if they don't see anymore forecasts!!

Check out the position of the high and where the approaching fronts meet (the boundary layer) This is where the advection is at its strongest a band of say 30 - 50 miles wide. We have a warm front projected to swing in over us rather than the south west and a potentially resultant short wave which tends to push more moisture aloft on a more local level. At night the temps should be a little colder which will help. If you re run the beeb forcast you will see that the white (snow) intensifies as it gets over hampshire then fizzles out as it runs into the high which tries to kill of the precipitation by absorbing it in parts. Lows evaporate and disipate wheras highs are relatively stable air masses. Blah Blah

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

Well latest BBC forecast (just before midnight) had rain for later in the evening here in south Hants, then snow (but probably just sleet/rain on the coast) in the early hours of the morning before turning to rain by daylight... so even IF it does snow here it will do so whilst we are asleep & there will be no sign of it (or a great deal left of our current snowcover) when we wake up on Wednesday nonono.gifrolleyes.gif Oh well at least we had a good load last week... whistling.gif

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Posted
  • Location: chilbolton observatory (North Hampshire when home)
  • Weather Preferences: Good dump of snow or a damn good thunderstorm
  • Location: chilbolton observatory (North Hampshire when home)

This is becoming a regular feature of the weather of late or maybe the interpretation is a better summary.

Go to bed full of anticipation, get up really subdued due to a change of plan.

My eyes cannot take any more or my brain.

Could be another Gas oven event on the boards this evening ! :unknw:

2 deg with a thaw of lying snow . Bit of a flurry going on.

Block if one can call it that seems to be over Hants way so still a bit of uncertainty. West of that warming up alarmingly. Might see some white stuff tonight.

Edited by flyer
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

hi all,

interesting situation unfolding for today. Reham (spelling?) with our local forecast this morning appeared to be backing away from snow for coastal parts of Hampshire/Sussex/Dorset and also seemed to play down precipitation amounts (although she did then say that if the precip intensified it could get interesting). Then, on the way to work John Hammond on 5 live indicated that for the most part away from Cornwall it would be snow.

Channel Islands was the coldest place this morning apparently! once we pick up the southeasterly wind we should tap into a little bit of that colder air ahead of the front. Also, looking at the rainfall radar, that front is currently VERY active, which is a good sign.

So, what's going to happen!!? no idea - it's certainly marginal. Heart says the precip will be heavy enough to be snow, head says rain turning to light snow and then petering out.

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

hi all,

interesting situation unfolding for today. Reham (spelling?) with our local forecast this morning appeared to be backing away from snow for coastal parts of Hampshire/Sussex/Dorset and also seemed to play down precipitation amounts (although she did then say that if the precip intensified it could get interesting). Then, on the way to work John Hammond on 5 live indicated that for the most part away from Cornwall it would be snow.

Channel Islands was the coldest place this morning apparently! once we pick up the southeasterly wind we should tap into a little bit of that colder air ahead of the front. Also, looking at the rainfall radar, that front is currently VERY active, which is a good sign.

So, what's going to happen!!? no idea - it's certainly marginal. Heart says the precip will be heavy enough to be snow, head says rain turning to light snow and then petering out.

Paul

I think that is a fairly accurate summation of how things will pan out.

Elevation will help in this scenario, although that only covers a small percentage of our area.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

I think that is a fairly accurate summation of how things will pan out.

Elevation will help in this scenario, although that only covers a small percentage of our area.

i guess timing may also make a bit of a difference for marginal coastal areas?

looks good for inland hilly areas, though, as you say. It'll be worth keeping an eye on the SW regional thread as today progresses and the front moves northeast to see what they are reporting down there.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth, hampshire
  • Location: portsmouth, hampshire

well im no expert but i have a funny feeling tonight will be good for us

not sure what the temps are here but it is freezin out there lol feels colder than yesterday !! lol could be because there is more of a breeze today the snow on the ground is still thawing but no where near as fast as i had expected it to

got a feeling we might see rain for a few hrs first but i think as long as the ppn stays fairly heavy as it crosses our area we should see a bit of heavy snow

heres hopein anyway lol fingers crossed

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

well im no expert but i have a funny feeling tonight will be good for us

not sure what the temps are here but it is freezin out there lol feels colder than yesterday !! lol could be because there is more of a breeze today the snow on the ground is still thawing but no where near as fast as i had expected it to

got a feeling we might see rain for a few hrs first but i think as long as the ppn stays fairly heavy as it crosses our area we should see a bit of heavy snow

heres hopein anyway lol fingers crossed

It's already warmer here today than it was at any point yesterday! It is 3C at the moment & I expect it could get up to around 4C this afternoon... I'm sorry to say it looks like a rain or at best sleet event for us on the coast, if we didn't receive any precipitation until late in the night/early hours of the morning then I think there would be a chance it could fall as snow for a while, but then readily changing to rain by morning anyway... nonono.gif

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth, hampshire
  • Location: portsmouth, hampshire

am i right in saying though that if this sw that has been talked about develops it will favour us more?? being it will be night hence colder and once it develops it should pull winds in from the se ?? and i heard it could travel up the channel ??

looking at the bbc graphics last night (could have changed by now lol) but it showed a heavy pulse across hampshire + iow at around midnight could this be the possible sw ??

Edited by coxxy22
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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

I'm not sure about that, but the latest forecast on BBC News channel had us on the coast not even looking likely to get rain now! Looks like a dry event according to them rolleyes.gif The rain/sleet/snow goes across northern Dorset into northern Hants/Berks before petering out as it makes its way northwards... Of course the BBC graphics are never very accurate... whistling.gif

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth, hampshire
  • Location: portsmouth, hampshire

ah thats mad lol

meridian weather this morning said snow through the night (simon parkin) and showed snow for us wed morning before turning to sleet/rain later

suppose its just a wait and see thing init lol

Edited by coxxy22
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

well, there is certainly a lot of precipitation on the front at the moment but it is very slow moving - high ground in the southwest ought to get absolutely pasted. Be interesting to hear. Maybe BBC thinks it'll start to die out before it gets here? It's not meant to get here until well after dark is it?

this evening may well be spent radar watching, street light watching and netweather posting!

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

The latest forecast also said snow only for above 200m! So that's most of Devon, Cornwall etc.. getting rain too & I can be pretty sure it would fall as rain in Southsea, being all of 1m asl! laugh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

The latest forecast also said snow only for above 200m! So that's most of Devon, Cornwall etc.. getting rain too & I can be pretty sure it would fall as rain in Southsea, being all of 1m asl! laugh.gif

hmmm. It's sounding less and less good. Somebody has just posted on the southwest thread that the precip is now not going to get to Bristol until 11pm - not sure if that's true.

Right, i'm going to do some meaningful work which means i now won't look at the radar or check the threads until this evening. I'm not giving up until people in Dorset start reporting rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

Met Office have downgraded their warnings for here at least, Portsmouth is not even in the yellow zone now for today or tomorrow, that looks like 0% chance of any snow here now, oh well here's to a rapid thaw to get rid of all the slushy mess still on the roads & pavements...

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Met Office have downgraded their warnings for here at least, Portsmouth is not even in the yellow zone now for today or tomorrow, that looks like 0% chance of any snow here now, oh well here's to a rapid thaw to get rid of all the slushy mess still on the roads & pavements...

With reports of rain in Plymouth and snow inland, I think it is already suggesting what us "coasties " can expect later today/tonight whilst inland may attract something more seasonal.

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

absolutely no chance i said this on sunday.

its cold in the wind but milder air temps 4c is far to high dew points are in the plus range aswell.

rain for us tonight maybe some snow on the back edge as cold air digs in but futher north could be much more intresting petersfield north will have much more.

still some are really optimistic about cold returning even by next weekend but i go with 70/30 that mild air wins out and the alantic kicks butt.

id say next shot at cold is going to be around the last week of jan to first week of feb.

so far from over also sea temps are much cooler by feb but the sun is warmer this is not always bad because it aids in better convection.

for this cold 1 more day of lying snow here in portsmouth then mildish air but never to mild even with a full blown alantic max id say 8c.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK

SW thread are reporting the front now moving into Dorset, so the band has travelled a lot faster than predicted. IMHO, this increases the chance of early evening rain for us, rather than late-night snow, judging by the way the ice is melting this afternoon. The red areas on the radar also seem to be petering out as it moves in. :)

Trying to stay optimisitic that the blizzard currently blowing on Dartmoor will keep going until it stalls over Bitterne Park for the night! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

Temps dropping off steadily here in Farnham! That front seems to be moving considerably faster that forecast. It will be snow anywhere off the coast!!

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Posted
  • Location: Odiham, Hampshire
  • Location: Odiham, Hampshire

SW thread are reporting the front now moving into Dorset, so the band has travelled a lot faster than predicted. IMHO, this increases the chance of early evening rain for us, rather than late-night snow, judging by the way the ice is melting this afternoon. The red areas on the radar also seem to be petering out as it moves in. cray.gif

Trying to stay optimisitic that the blizzard currently blowing on Dartmoor will keep going until it stalls over Bitterne Park for the night! crazy.gif

The band of PPN does seem to be a little further east than predicted for this time, and the fact that there have been reports of snow further west and at lower levels than expected is encouraging for Dorset and Hants. I would imagine that away from the coasts in Dorset and Hampshire snow totals will at least match the MetO warnings of 2-5cms. The temperature in north Hants maxed at 0.6C late this morning (it had fallen to 0.2C by 2pm), so I don't think that in the north of the county there will be anything other than snow unless the band weakens much more than is expected.

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