South West England Cold Spell Discussion:

[BARRY]

Well i for one will be gobsmacked if it snows here, I am 99% sure it will rain

[dogs32]

excellent forecast,anyone see it

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm cheese

on topic i hope we get lots and lots of rain so i can sit my exam and then i wont have to sit it in the summer instead.

sorry guys im hoping for rain and not snow this time

jonesy

[Guest]

Latest Beeb forecast still not picking up the shortwave/little low that may form that some NW members have been alluding to in posts later this afternoon.

Tomorrow can't come soon enough, only to release the tension!

[Lynxus]

excellent forecast,anyone see it

Narp, The birds watchin friends..

What did it say?

[nick sussex]

The thing that is depressing me now is (and I know it hasn't even happened yet!) that its going to get milder afterwards, so it won't be around long. I think I just want it to be perfect! lol :lol:

Unfortunately its not the perfect set up as there is likely to be a relaxation of the Scandi block so it is likely to turn less cold for a time, however just a few hints this evening from the ECM especially that it could turn colder again next week.

[Guest]

Unfortunately its not the perfect set up as there is likely to be a relaxation of the Scandi block so it is likely to turn less cold for a time, however just a few hints this evening from the ECM especially that it could turn colder again next week.

Cheers Nick

What's your take on the latest Beeb forecasts (in assoc. with the MetO), still not 'picking up' shortwave/little low development on wednesday morn that you and a couple of other forum members have been alluding to during this evening? Is it just too complex at this stage in proceedings?

[dogs32]

Narp, The birds watchin friends..

What did it say?

Elizabeth from N24 had the heavy snow for Devon to start with,then spreading right up into GLOS and The Midland's...While turning to rain from say M4 Southwards,

Snow across the Midlands not turning to rain

[Nights King]

Latest Beeb forecast still not picking up the shortwave/little low that may form that some NW members have been alluding to in posts later this afternoon.

Tomorrow can't come soon enough, only to release the tension!

Oh and on that note the girlfriend has turned to do just that - Time to go and pretend i am a normal person that isn't obsessed with the weather.

No fooling her she knows me to much haha.

Speak later but this is all proving far to stressful for the west country inhabitants.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Elizabeth from N24 had the heavy snow for Devon to start with,then spreading right up into GLOS and The Midland's...While turning to rain from say M4 Southwards,

Snow across the Midlands not turning to rain

No, i'm at the M4 lol and it showed snow.

[Nights King]

Elizabeth from N24 had the heavy snow for Devon to start with,then spreading right up into GLOS and The Midland's...While turning to rain from say M4 Southwards,

Snow across the Midlands not turning to rain

Rain!!!

[03jtrickey]

Another update from Ian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

Wonder why he hasn't come to NW?

BTW Doesn't look good for us in Glos. Off now, will see what happens in the morning.

[dogs32]

No, i'm at the M4 lol and it showed snow.

yes it did...but if I said everything she showed I still would be typing..

yes WALES was in there...

but the main snow was also across the Midlands

that didnt seemed to turn to rain

[nick sussex]

Latest Beeb forecast still not picking up the shortwave/little low that may form that some NW members have been alluding to in posts later this afternoon.

Tomorrow can't come soon enough, only to release the tension!

Oh the dreaded shortwave! these are such a pain! regarding this what is likely to happen is the main low will become slow moving near the sw of Ireland, the shortwave forms and runs along the Channel, this is important as it keeps the precip from moving too quickly ne wards. The ukmo does have this shortwave but the bbc won't mention this, it's only model anoraks in here who would have a clue what they were going on about!

[Jayfromcardiff]

yes it did...but if I said everything she showed I still would be typing..

yes WALES was in there...

but the main snow was also across the Midlands

that didnt seemed to turn to rain

Main snow through central wales/s wales and parts of sw.

[dogs32]

Main snow through central wales/s wales and parts of sw.

yes...thats how I saw it..

but starts at Devon...

The longest snow hrs were across Wales and the Midlands

But a dumping also further South

[Guest]

Another update from Ian.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/

Wonder why he hasn't come to NW?

BTW Doesn't look good for us in Glos. Off now, will see what happens in the morning.

"I'd estimate perhaps 2cm of snow is still possible into many lowland parts of Somerset and North Somerset; plus maybe - maybe, I stress - Bristol & Bath and South Gloucestershire (albeit I'm yet to be convinced)," -

Oh, spiffing! Absolutely spiffing! Is it worth it? Mind you it doesn't surprise me.

Still Dartmoor Matt should be well chuffed!

I thought the trends on the forecasts didn't look great.

[dogs32]

last post as this thread is giving me a headache literally

depth's were 10cm...

but some places more locally 20cm or more I think she said..

let the game's commence

[Guest]

Oh the dreaded shortwave! these are such a pain! regarding this what is likely to happen is the main low will become slow moving near the sw of Ireland, the shortwave forms and runs along the Channel, this is important as it keeps the precip from moving too quickly ne wards. The ukmo does have this shortwave but the bbc won't mention this, it's only model anoraks in here who would have a clue what they were going on about!

Cheers Nick.

Ian Fergusson's latest blog this eve doesn't look great for the northern part of this thread i.e. North Somerset, BTL, Glos.

His thoughts seems to indicate most snow for higher parts of SW i.e. the Moors - no surprise there then, s.wales, but other areas no more than a few cms.

Seems it could be a bit of a damp squib for some of us - certainly no classic return to late 70s/early 80s.

But i also take note of yours, Nick F.'s and other membs who've mentioned shortwave, etc. Who will ultimately get it right?

[nick sussex]

It's a shame Ian F isn't on here this evening as I would have asked him if his updated forecast was collated before the latest NAE model run, we get to see this around 10.30pm UK time but i'm not sure when it comes out to the UKMO. Regardless there is still uncertainty regarding tomorrow so i don't think people should be reaching for the prozac just yet!

[West is Best]

Thanks nick this is a classic s west snow event looks ever so promising seen this synoptics only 3 times in my life time producing 20foots snow drifts at least 12hrs of snow on the 3 occasions.

Well I'm beginning to think this may actually produce a big snow event for Devon, parts of east Cornwall, perhaps Somerset / Dorset.

My earlier pessimism was around the position of the low itself, but the GFS is showing more and more of a sheer-away, which considerably heightens the snow potential. The downside is that the snow may not push as far east as many had hoped.

[Guest]

Wonder why he hasn't come to NW?

Maybe his employers have told him to stop posting. Hope not.

[Lynxus]

OK, If we get snow. EVERYONE from glos area, get together and do this :

[nick sussex]

Cheers Nick.

Ian Fergusson's latest blog this eve doesn't look great for the northern part of this thread i.e. North Somerset, BTL, Glos.

His thoughts seems to indicate most snow for higher parts of SW i.e. the Moors - no surprise there then, s.wales, but other areas no more than a few cms.

Seems it could be a bit of a damp squib for some of us - certainly no classic return to late 70s/early 80s.

But i also take note of yours, Nick F.'s and other membs who've mentioned shortwave, etc. Who will ultimately get it right?

It can't really be a classic in that the low gives snow then slides off to allow the block back. However it's too early to say how much precip will fall, certainly don't throw the towel in yet.

[Guest]

Well I'm beginning to think this may actually produce a big snow event for Devon, parts of east Cornwall, perhaps Somerset / Dorset.

My earlier pessimism was around the position of the low itself, but the GFS is showing more and more of a sheer-away, which considerably heightens the snow potential. The downside is that the snow may not push as far east as many had hoped.

Yes that's what the trend in this eve's Beeb forecasts have been showing (i know some people on here don't think much of their forecasts).

But at this rate it could veer even further west and miss a whole swathe of the wider South West region, with only North Devon, parts of Cornwall and S.w. wales seeing decent snow.