Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Hailsowen]

Right then. I think it's close enough now (less than 1 day) to start drawing a map.

This is for between 5 and 8 am tommorrow, and you'll notice that I've 'commandeered' the Met Office's new (but not proper) colour scheme.

Bear in mind that it's all based on what I think will happen. It's not taken from anywhere else, so don't blame anyone (or blame me, either). :lol:

I think it's quite reasonable, considering what's currently over the south-west!

Edited January 12, 2010 by Hailsowen

[stewfox]

Afternoon All. Interesting Wintry weather for us Midlanders more so the West Midlands. It looks as though the front moving into the South West and SW Wales will make very slow progress north and east over the next 12hrs. A shortwave trough develops along that front later today and overnight so that will slow the front down and aid in rejuvinating the front over our area tomorrow.As the front approaches it will also pull in some colder air from the NorthEast so that is likely to make the precip, snow, right down to low levels. Ive highlighted in red where the greatest risk of heavy snow will be tomorrow and the Green area where its likely to be lighter and less disruptive. Its a developing situation, but yes I really do think someone may get some decent snowfall out of this....

Many thanks for the post and charts (so often missing)

I think my house is on the red/green line, perahps with a bit of height might get into the red, will climb up on the roof.

[NorthantsSnow]

Right then. I think it's close enough now (less than 1 day) to start drawing a map.

This is for between 5 and 8 am tommorrow, and you'll notice that I've 'commandeered' the Met Office's new (but not proper) colour scheme.

Bear in mind that it's all based on what I think will happen. It's not taken from anywhere else, so don't blame anyone (or blame me, either). :lol:

I think it's quite reasonable, considering what's currently over the south-west!

But it's going to stall and weaken before it reaches the Midlands. It will simply not maintain that sort of intensity for long once it makes landfall. The front is too weak, sorry.

[Hailsowen]

Oh well. I can always hope!

[camperstron]

I've just been out and there's the occasional micro-flake dancing about. Unless I'm now starting to see things!

[mozza81]

Right then. I think it's close enough now (less than 1 day) to start drawing a map.

This is for between 5 and 8 am tommorrow, and you'll notice that I've 'commandeered' the Met Office's new (but not proper) colour scheme.

Bear in mind that it's all based on what I think will happen. It's not taken from anywhere else, so don't blame anyone (or blame me, either).

I think it's quite reasonable, considering what's currently over the south-west!

hehe id take that now as Dudley / wolves areas would get hammered - 2-8mm per hour in snow terms is considerable if it stays a few hours!! not sure how you have done this but I persume the higher intensity shown is due to the mainly increased relief in these areas.

Im still not confident overall and think a slight dusting for this area.................

Edited January 12, 2010 by mozza81

[Nabraxas]

Local radio stations are still going for snow overnight for my area; I really can't see it myself! I'm right on the border of Warwickshire in the South West corner of Leicestershire so maybe something will creep over but I doubt it personally.

[locneverstop]

The path of the front seems to be quite well matching the 06z GFS. If it keeps mimicking the model we may well have some light snow in the wee hours.

[kar999]

Right then. I think it's close enough now (less than 1 day) to start drawing a map.

This is for between 5 and 8 am tommorrow.........

That'll be me snowed in then...

Oh how I wish

.. but I know what'll happen when if the front does manage to reach me...

It wont start snowing until I've gone to bed.

We'll get a foot of snow whilst I'm asleep.

It'll turn to rain before my alarm goes off.

I'll awaken to pouring rain and fields of green outside.

It'll have just been another recurring dream!

Edited January 12, 2010 by kar999

[Turnedoutniceagain]

That'll be me snowed in then...

Oh how I wish

.. but I know what'll happen if the front does manage to reach me...

It wont start snowing until I've gone to bed.

We'll get a foot of snow whilst I'm asleep.

It'll turn to rain before my alarm goes off.

I'll awaken to pouring rain and fields of green outside.

It'll have just been another recurring dream!

Mmmmmm, greenery !!

I must admit, with about 8" in the garden, road outside a complete nightmare, I'm a bit snowed out !!

[Hailsowen]

...2-8mm per hour in snow terms is considerable if it stays a few hours!!

Whoops! I meant that to be 2-4mm total for the 3 hours itself!

Oh well, I live and learn.

[kar999]

We've only had about 3 inches max and some has already gone with this slow thaw. If the sun would come out it would only take a short while to see the lawn again but these dull cold days will prolong the process and we'll have to endure a winter slushland.

Edited January 12, 2010 by kar999

[Hailsowen]

Just been looking, it seems to have hit Cardiff 2 hours early. Not that it'll make any impact here, though. :unsure:

[locneverstop]

I have a feeling we're better off looking to the south. The band seems to be arcing round to the NW to me...

[mozza81]

Whoops! I meant that to be 2-4mm total for the 3 hours itself!

Oh well, I live and learn.

Oh bugger - I was getting my hopes up of a proper snowfest tonight

its going to be a long 18 hours..............................

[Stour7]

south wales are getting a pasting according to the wales forum, lets hope it gets as far as worcestershire..........

[Hailsowen]

Still hasn't stalled yet - if it doesn't, it'd reach me by 18:30! (Which it certainly won't!)

[cheshire snow]

Hi Guys

just thought i would have a quick look in here as the NW thread is very quiet,just had a look at the rain today radar and this band seems to be moving

quite fast

Anyone confirm

cheers

C.S

[locneverstop]

Hi Guys

just thought i would have a quick look in here as the NW thread is very quiet,just had a look at the rain today radar and this band seems to be moving

quite fast

Anyone confirm

cheers

C.S

It is ahead of schedule, but I think a stall is inevitable as it hits the Welsh mountains on the way in. I'm sure mountains do that...

[Luke3000]

Still hasn't stalled yet - if it doesn't, it'd reach me by 18:30! (Which it certainly won't!)

Why won't it?

[Stour7]

ok, i am new to all this, if its moving faster than expected does that mean the snow will move more in to the midlands, will it stall further inland give me lesson in weather anybody????

[smethwickgg102]

Radar is showing something pepping up NW of Brum anyone seen anything or is just a radar blip

[andy_leics22]

To be honest I think people in the West Midlands are straw clutching. The band is now stalling and is dying out on it's Northern edge. So IF it does eventually reach Birmingham area it will be light stuff and won't be until after midnight most probably.

[SteveElbows]

Yeah Im not convinced it has been moving faster than the models suggested - for a while it seemed to be getting ahead of the GFS but it seems to have slowed now, in roughly the position where it was supposed to stall. And yeah, the colours on the radar have become quite a bit less interesting in the last half an hour. Oh well, it looks like we will get a good idea of the reality for the midlands by midnight if not before.

Edited January 12, 2010 by SteveElbows

[cyclonic happiness]

Yeah Im not convinced it has been moving faster than the models suggested - for a while it seemed to be getting ahead of the GFS but it seems to have slowed now, in roughly the position where it was supposed to stall. And yeah, the colours on the radar have become quite a bit less interesting in the last half an hour. Oh well, it looks like we will get a good idea of the reality for the midlands by midnight if not before.

eek hope not, i've gotta babysit for my sister and the thought of having to ride my enfield back 5 miles in heavy snow is not a good one

I'll take about 2am plox!