Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Yeh, I'm uncertain as to what will happen on Wednesday/Thursday myself. My local forecast seems to suggest precipitation will fall as sleet at lower levels, although, I'd imagine we won't have same same intensity as those further to the West. I'm looking forward to the High resolution Models coming into range as, I believe, these will give us a better Idea.

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 12Z is certainly interesting with snow developing quite widely. As far as the model goes right now it shows snow widely across Wales and into CS England. The next run should hopefully see the PPN over here.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interesting to note, whilst there was not a major difference on the 06z 850 profiles on the GFS, it was quite widely missed that the Op run was actually one of the driest, for example, here.

I'm still, and always have been, dubious of the ppn being snow, bar above around 500m (give or take -200m), but the ppn was really there on the 06z...just looking in the wrong place.

Agree though that the GFS may be wrong (has it has been quite a bit in this time frame, but not exclusively), as the UKMO showed the front decaying.

Who knows, it may work out alright, but personally, I would say "Computer says...no" - bar the higher ground of course.

If its the case, then funnily enough, inside the mid term projections, the GFS would have spotted Wednesday well, but faultered in the <T+48 time frame.

[Costa Del Fal]

I have to say it looks like the PPN may struggle to get here now.

[azores92]

I have to say it looks like the PPN may struggle to get here now.

enough of the mood swings!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

snow off now for wednesday, bbc has it miles south of here, and cant see where the cold air is coming from, 10.0C max today, feels like spring has arrived

[Costa Del Fal]

enough of the mood swings!!!

Lol the NAE was the first model i looked at today and then i saw the other models...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

although Dan corbett had the snow risk miles further north than the website, over the whole midlands and even north of the midlands

I also like the trend of high pressure arriving for weekend, could be cold and frosty

[conor123]

Im not sure if that precipitation on Wednesday will even get here now? GFS says no, UKMO says just about, other models mixed.

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 18z brings us into the fun on Wednesday. Will all have to wait and see i suspect.

Edited January 18, 2010 by Blizzards

[Nick L]

NAE 18z brings us into the fun on Wednesday. Will all have to wait and see i suspect.

Will be a case of look out the window and see what we get.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

unbelievable 06Z for weekend/early next week, snow for weekend and -7C at 9am on 25th Jan, and -15C uppers near enough tues at 6am, but still uncertain yet, even though it is the high resolution bit still at 144, but FI, fully expecting though to be disappointed after the 12Z's

hope this forum livens up in the evenings soon, been shockingly quiet

just a shame the damn thing will be a massive cold outlier

Edited January 19, 2010 by mark forster 630

[chapmanraven]

If the colds coming back I wish it would hurry up.

It is amazing though that after a few days now of 7c to 10c temps the canal still has ice on it in places. The poor ducks don't know whether to walk or swim.

[kar999]

Time to ramp this thread up with a Met Office Warning!!

West Midlands:

Herefordshire

Shropshire

Telford + Wrekin

W Midlands

Warwickshire

Worcestershire

Heavy Snow Wed 20 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales on Wednesday.

Outbreaks of rain are expected to turn increasingly to sleet or wet snow, with accumulations of 1 to 3cm in places, and locally 4 to 7cm. Over southeast Wales, there is a risk of up to 10cm of snow on ground over 200m.

This may lead to some disruption to travel.

Issued at: 1121 Tue 19 Jan

[conor123]

Im not sure how this is going to happen but the 12z just have the weather front slamming right into us with evaporative cooling though

i still think anywhere below 250-300 meters will see rain/sleet with wet snow only in very heavy bursts.

This event reminds me of 18/19th November 2007 for some reason, gave a mix of rain, sleet and snow switching between as the intensity changed.

[cyclonic happiness]

Local lakes around here still have a thick sheet of ice across ttheir entire surface, must still be 3-4" thick what with swans and geese walking about all over it.

Won't take alot to re freeze the slightly washey surface.

Tomorrow looks much better for us on the 12z as it shows the main bulk of precipitation much further east, by about 50-60 miles!

whether it's gonna be rain or snow is still very much a wild guess, but given this winter so far....

[picog]

The weatheronline boys think some of us in the west of the region will get snow:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/19/basis12/ukuk/prty/10012012_1912.gif

Nevertheless, it does seem too warm out, although it has cooled during the afternoon, so you never know...

[loopydreamer]

i would luv to see some more snow but i just cant see temps/dew points being cold enough

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice to see the risk has moved East a bit this evening. Looks like most away from Staffordshire and maybe parts of Warwickshire could get something from this event in the West Midlands region.

[Gord]

My view is a definitly wait and see one.

Current temps and dew points are no indication of what might happen at all. The forecasted cold air isn't due yet.

Altitude is usually an issue with these events, but not always.

Its so marginal and close that in my view, listening to forecasts and model watching might not be too much help with this one. If it just rains tomorrow, then the advisory would still have been justified because the potential was there.

We have been surprised before, November 2007 (I lived in Gnosall, Staffordshire then) and October 2008 (didn't settle here but did at the Clents...that happening might be a good bet tomorrow) spring to mind.

Of course there are many occasions when it goes the other way and it just rains, (December 2009!).

Anyway, I'm going to use the models to keep track of any long term trends for next week and just use the good old fashioned looking out of the window for tomorrow!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

snow definitely off now, I cant believe how many people ive told that its NOT going to snow tomorrow, everyone I know says snow tomorrow unbelievable, the snow was never on I kept saying

but my attention is on next weeks possible cold spell, lets hope the ecm has had a wobble, like earlier this Jan

[Costa Del Fal]

snow definitely off now, I cant believe how many people ive told that its NOT going to snow tomorrow, everyone I know says snow tomorrow unbelievable, the snow was never on I kept saying

but my attention is on next weeks possible cold spell, lets hope the ecm has had a wobble, like earlier this Jan

Well rain, sleet or snow we will be seeing PPN in this part of the West Midlands tomorrow. Snow quite possible imo.

[Luke3000]

When is the cold air meant to come in?

&

When is the ppn expected to get here?

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 18z brings the PPN a bit further East. GFS 18z brings some of the heavier PPN a little bit eastwards aswell.

[loopydreamer]

rich101 over on the s/w thread says that there is light snow falling in churchdown!