Virtual Chases 2010

[Paul Sherman]

Well it's January 2010 and it looks like next week could be the 1st signs of something for us to get our "Training" teeth into.

A Very Strong Sub-Tropical Jet streak over West Texas coupled with some decent temps approaching 20-25c and a dryline over parts of Texas could yield our 1st Virtual Chase of the Season next Tuesday to Friday in the States. GFS Seems quite set on a series of Troughs crossing the Lower 52 next week at different points.

Will post some charts and even the SPC Note they might "Ramp it up a bit as it gets closer"

They must be as bored as everyone else since nothing much has happened in the last year.

Paul S

From SPC

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0351 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS...MREF MEMBERS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY

6...BEFORE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DAY 7-8. ECMWF HAS

DEMONSTRATED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE THE

DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF

AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WRN GULF AND ERN TX TUESDAY...SHIFTING

INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE STRONG

PACIFIC UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING

MOIST AXIS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO FORM WITHIN

DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE TUESDAY IN ERN TX...THEN

EXPAND THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST

STATES DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY

ELEVATED BUT COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF

MOISTURE...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A MORE

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER

SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT

THIS TIME...BUT A RAMP UP IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN

LATER OUTLOOKS.

[dogs32]

hey good...this is it folk's it could start here.Trickle become's a water fall

Spring is going to be exciting

edit...ps Cookie..sorry mate havent got back in touch with you about link,unfortunately at present have lost it.

Asoon as I find it will post..

[Cookie]

And so it begins eagerly been waiting for this thread.

[dave48]

Third year for me following the action in the US, it's a great way to improve your forecasting for sure and every year the live streams and footage seems to get better which really adds to it. We shall see what next week brings, it's been a long wait.

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like a Severe Episode definately coming up now with Days 4-8 Looking Severe in the SE States.

Before all that and a Day 3 Slight Risk as well over the Southern States

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0314 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL

EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN U.S. THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF

AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO 24 HOURS

AGO. DESPITE THIS TREND...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS

NRN FL INTO SRN GA. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NEWD

INTO THIS REGION AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. THE

MOIST AXIS WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND

VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDING THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. STORMS

DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THIS AREA MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE

SURFACE TO POSE A SEVERE RISK.

DAY 6 AND 7...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...GFS AND MREF MEMBERS HAVE

CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION AND MOVE THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER

THE ERN PACIFIC EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES

WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. A LARGE CYCLONE

WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE

SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY. INTRUSION OF

CP AIR IN WAKE OF EJECTING IMPULSE THURSDAY WILL NOT EXTEND FAR INTO

THE GULF. AS A RESULT...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POISED TO

ADVECT NWD AS CYCLONE DEEPENS...THOUGH DURATION OF THE MOIST

ADVECTION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. A FORCED BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY

DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID

MS VALLEY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE

TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING

EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE

EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY

ADVECT NWD TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT

DURING THIS TIME.

[Cookie]

any updates, as I could really do with something to follow

[Paul Sherman]

1st Proper Tornado Risk day and SPC Have Issued a Slight Risk - Tornado threat looks mainly in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valey, parts of Louisiana and Alabama. Think the Wind threat looks more likely but may squeeze 1 or 2 Tornadoes out of today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1200 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

OZARKS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SRN OZARKS/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

A FAST-MOVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO

THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER

MS VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF

THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN AR...NRN MS AND NRN LA

WITH ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE MID-MS

VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT SPREADING THIS CONVECTION

ENEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY BY MIDDAY WITH A LARGE AREA OF

MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST FROM NE TX EWD ACROSS

NRN AND CNTRL LA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY

MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE

AIDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE SRN OZARKS AND

LOWER MS VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOW

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF

A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS

COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO

MID 60S F WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO THREAT

SHOULD EXIST ACROSS LA...SRN MS INTO SRN AL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS

EVENING WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE

HELICITIES FROM 300 TO 400 M2/S2. CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA SHOULD

ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS AN MCS ORGANIZES. IF A

WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE

LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS NE TX...FAR SRN AR AND NCNTRL

LA...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STEEP WITH

CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND

-18C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE

THREAT FOR HAIL MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS

EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

[dogs32]

1st Proper Tornado Risk day and SPC Have Issued a Slight Risk - Tornado threat looks mainly in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valey, parts of Louisiana and Alabama. Think the Wind threat looks more likely but may squeeze 1 or 2 Tornadoes out of today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1200 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

OZARKS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SRN OZARKS/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

A FAST-MOVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO

THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER

MS VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF

THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN AR...NRN MS AND NRN LA

WITH ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE MID-MS

VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT SPREADING THIS CONVECTION

ENEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY BY MIDDAY WITH A LARGE AREA OF

MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST FROM NE TX EWD ACROSS

NRN AND CNTRL LA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY

MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE

AIDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE SRN OZARKS AND

LOWER MS VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOW

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF

A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS

COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO

MID 60S F WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO THREAT

SHOULD EXIST ACROSS LA...SRN MS INTO SRN AL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS

EVENING WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE

HELICITIES FROM 300 TO 400 M2/S2. CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA SHOULD

ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS AN MCS ORGANIZES. IF A

WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE

LOWER MS VALLEY...THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS NE TX...FAR SRN AR AND NCNTRL

LA...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STEEP WITH

CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND

-18C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE

THREAT FOR HAIL MAY SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS

EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

Excellent!!! first real one!!

[Paul Sherman]

Some quite tasty Supercells have erupted in the last few hours and as such SPC Have issued Weather Watches 1 & 2

1 Tornado so far in Louisiana - Cars blown into a Ditch

[dogs32]

I have searched for some live stream's but cant find any at present.

[Paul Sherman]

I have searched for some live stream's but cant find any at present.

Lol

You wont Mate!

Nobody in there right minds will Chase in the Forests of Mississippi, that and it will be getting dark in about 5 mins and you have a nasty accident waiting to happen behind the trees!

Paul S

[Nick F]

Pattern all points towards several days of severe storms over the jungles of deep south and SE USA - with a strong jet blasting east from the Califonian coast across the Gulf states ... do remember some quite notable tornado outbreaks over the Gulf States east of the Mis-hippy around late Jan and through Feb in recent years - especially Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Not surprised there aren't any US chasers out though, they ain't going into those trees!

[Paul Sherman]

Nice Hook Echo on the Supercell South of Shreveport about 15mins ago on the last frame - Would bet quite a bit of money on that having a Tornado Report in the next hour or so

[Gorky]

Nice Storm just west of Shreveport also!

and an update (SRV is borked this scan). Nice Reflectivity Core dead centre of the hook! Looks like it was right over I-20

[Cookie]

things kicking off

SABINE LA-

510 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR SABINE

PARISH...

AT 508 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED

NEAR ZWOLLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

NOBLE...LORING...MANY AND BELMONT

[NL]

Tornado warning for Shreveport.

958

WFUS54 KSHV 202329

TORSHV

LAC069-085-210015-

/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0004.100120T2329Z-100121T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

529 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...

CENTRAL SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 528 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MANY...OR

23 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CAMPTI...MARTHAVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING

FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN

TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST

WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND

NORTHEAST TEXAS.

[Gorky]

Just found a level 2 scan of that storm with SRV on... Can you say textbook?..... I think a 5 year old could point out the probably tornado on this one...

[Cookie]

There have been 2 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) Strength Location County State Lat Lon Comments

2215 UNK 10 SE AMITE TANGIPAHOA LA 30.63 -90.39 BELOW

SHERIFFS DEPUTIES VISUALLY TRACKING A TORNADO ON LA 1062 NEAR LORANGER. (LIX)

2055 UNK 1 NW VILLE PLATTE EVANGELINE LA 30.7 -92.29 BELOW

CARS BLOWN INTO A DITCH. (LCH)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

[Gorky]

There's the confirmation...

0527 PM TORNADO WASKOM 32.48N 94.06W

01/20/2010 HARRISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND. TREES DOWN ACROSS INTERSTATE

20.

Heading towards some more populated areas now also. Lots of small communities areound the lakes in it's direct path.

-=--------=-

sigh....

0534 PM TORNADO 2 W WASKOM 32.48N 94.10W

01/20/2010 HARRISON TX AMATEUR RADIO

PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOMES AND BUSINESSES DESTROYED IN THE

VICINITY OF MILE MARKER 628 ON I-20.

[Cookie]

There's the confirmation...

0527 PM TORNADO WASKOM 32.48N 94.06W

01/20/2010 HARRISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND. TREES DOWN ACROSS INTERSTATE

20.

Heading towards some more populated areas now also. Lots of small communities areound the lakes in it's direct path.

thats not good at all

[NL]

And its getting dark around there now .

[Cookie]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

542 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLINTON...

SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MADISON...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 542 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BROWNSVILLE

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

POCAHONTAS BY 555 PM CST...

FLORA BY 600 PM CST...

ANNANDALE BY 620 PM CST...

MADISON BY 625 PM CST...

GLUCKSTADT BY 635 PM CST...

[Gorky]

The storm is cycling right now. The old meso is weakening and a new hook is forming. It has a lot of storms to the SE which may crowd it's inflow a bit now, but I expect it to go through another cycle and quite possibly put at least another tornadodown before eveything merges.

Southern Storm ramping up again. Now also has a confirmed tornado. Also moving towards a largely populated area (Natchitoches)

[NL]

Ive found a live chase, although Ric Burney isn,t on the Shreveport storms, he's about 40 mile east of Dallas. Some pretty large cells around him by the live cam. He is heading east towards Louisiana.

http://www.chasertv....pages&Itemid=82

[Paul Sherman]

Report of people trapped in homes and businesses damaged along I-20 near Jonestown TX

From Stormtrack - Copied as If you have not got a Log-In you cant see the thread