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Virtual Chases 2010


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=22881

Some good Pictures from this Winter Storm from Page 3 Onwards!

Big Texan is buried in Snow :bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Seem's on the quiet side this year for any major Tornado's...Im taking this as a very good thing as it will be a later Season than last year.

:clap: calm before the major Storm's

torgraph.png

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah not that busy so far but at this time of year one decent outbreak really helps to push up the tornado total, I'm guessing the rather strong El nino hasn't helped, neither has the strong Arctic blasts into the states, i'm guessing most of the tornadoes have come from rather marginal conditions helped by the strong jet streak...

Hopefully that southern arm of the jet will help kick things off rather early...

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Yeah not that busy so far but at this time of year one decent outbreak really helps to push up the tornado total, I'm guessing the rather strong El nino hasn't helped, neither has the strong Arctic blasts into the states, i'm guessing most of the tornadoes have come from rather marginal conditions helped by the strong jet streak...

Hopefully that southern arm of the jet will help kick things off rather early...

Hi Kold,

I'm taking this as a real positive thing...

Ive spent ages studying tornado's cycle's IF there is such a thing..

We or they are truly due for a Tornado Outbreak..

Not just because I am going but its VERY rare to get two quiet year's one after another..

When this thing exploder's it will be awesome...

You heard it heard it here first... :whistling:

keep having this dream of a scary F4 OR F5...My premonition..

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Usually severe weather episodes start to pick up by mid-March across Texas and southern Plains, though episodes tend to be few and far between until mid-late April when the polar front shifts north of the southern Plains to allow moisture return which tends to most of the time be scoured away back down to the Gulf coast this time of the year by cold arctic air from the N and NW.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Darren

I have looked into this extensively and there does not seem to be 1 favourite from a La Nina or El Nino or Neutral State with regards to Storm Season but there is a pattern with styles of outbreaks and placement's.

La Nina tends to favour Tornado Families and Big Outbreaks see 2008 for the 2 day Back to back High Risks for the 22/23rd May whereas El Nino brings in the Southern Plains more and more Tornadoes in Texas due to the Equitorial Jet moving across Northern Mexico and across Texas.

If you could find out what 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008 were in terms of ENSO Signal then we might see if there is a pattern. There is one glaring pattern in that lot and it points to 2011 being pretty special LOL

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Those years seem to have a rather random collection of ENSO, but closer looks show quite a few do come on the back of el nino winters OR were around as an El nino was developing, 1999 and 2008 are the only ones that don't fit that pattern...so I'd suggest possibly a weak El Nino might be the best phase though other factors clearly come into play looking at the uyears you've suggested.

Edited by kold weather
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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Next Sunday/Monday looks interesting if current GFA (06z) plays out. Dews are a little marginal for sure but the wind fields are pretty impressive. One to keep an eye on for sure. I looked a few days back and it was showing an impressive system in the same area at the same time so there may be some consistency in the models. I havn't had chacne to look into any archived models yet for the alst couple of days though to confirm this.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

As Paul Sherman has mentioned in another thread (which for the life of me i can't find) a severe event is looming, the first slight risk for quite sometime now for wednesday the 10ᵀᴴ . Time to get some practise in before the teams departure in 50 days time.

post-5386-12680535360755_thumb.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0235 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO

LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO

ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS

VICINITY...IT APPEARS AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST

ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS

RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING

IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF

TODAYS/TUESDAYS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...INCREASING LARGE

SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD

SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE

AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY INITIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG/VEERING FLOW

THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL MODE OF

SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE

OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT STORMS

SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY EARLY

EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK QUICKLY

SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER

SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...PERHAPS MAINLY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...EASTERN OK/FAR SOUTHEAST KS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...

OTHER LOWER TOPPED SEVERE STORMS WILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS

PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY

TO THE NORTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE

/50S F/ WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IT APPEARS

LIKELY THAT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE

COMPACT UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLED

SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP

AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE

OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK CALIBER SEVERE

PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 03/08/2010

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Next Sunday/Monday looks interesting if current GFA (06z) plays out. Dews are a little marginal for sure but the wind fields are pretty impressive. One to keep an eye on for sure. I looked a few days back and it was showing an impressive system in the same area at the same time so there may be some consistency in the models. I havn't had chacne to look into any archived models yet for the alst couple of days though to confirm this.

They've not long updated the risks for today and upgraded to slight around NW Oklahoma and SE Kansas for with a 2% chance of a tornado but the risk is mainly for severe hail. Still something to virtually chase. Could be a few chasers out and about good day for trial runs.

post-5386-12680638325355_thumb.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0658 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI

PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPR LOW NOW ON THE AZ/NM BORDER WILL CONTINUE ENE TO THE WRN OK

PANHANDLE BY THIS EVE...AND INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z TUE AS UPSTREAM

TROUGH NOW APPROACHING ORE/NRN CA EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE

SIERRA. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN SE QUADRANT OF AZ/NM LOW WILL

REACH N CNTRL TX/CNTRL OK THIS EVE AND THE MO/AR OZARKS EARLY TUE.

AT THE SFC...LEE LOW NOW IN NE NM/SE CO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY E ROUGHLY

ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED

OCCLUSION/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E INTO CNTRL AND...EVENTUALLY...ERN

PORTIONS OF OK/TX.

...SW KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN N TX...

IN WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ENE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...SFC

HEATING AND DPVA IN DRY SLOT OF AZ/NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A

NEW ROUND OF SCTD/BROKEN STORMS THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN/ERN TX

PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP N

AND NE INTO PARTS OF SE CO...SW KS...AND WRN OK A BIT LATER IN THE

DAY. COLD MID LVL TEMPERATURES ATOP NARROW...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED

LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUSION SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE

AROUND 750 J/KG. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS

WITH HAIL AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 OR THE LOW 50S F.

NARROW NATURE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE ZONE...AND MODEST MOISTURE VALUES

/PW BELOW 1 INCH/...SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR THREAT.

NEVERTHELESS...SEVERAL SVR HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVE.

IN ADDITION...A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF

TORNADO IN AREA OF BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW JUST E/NE OF SFC

LOW/OCCLUSION.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=bart.comstock&uid=151

Wow Live Tornado!!!

That was as good as being there, watched Funnel Cloud then full blown Cone Tornado on the Stream for about 5 mins before the Stream died, Tornado still Ongoing North of Elk City! Looked to be at least EF2/EF3

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

post-24-12680914878755_thumb.jpg

Looked to be as Supercell in it's Classic Stage

Judging by the damage i think your estimation of EF2-EF3 is about right Paul. I was watching the streams last night and some of the images were quite impressive, Mike Phelps stream was showing great surface-based convection, i'm not sure but i think it may have been the same cell that dropped the tornado in Hammon, Roger Mills /Elk County, Oklahoma. No reports of injuries or fatalities from the authorities of Hammon all people are accounted for said one official.

post-5386-12681193111855_thumb.jpg

Video of yesterday's tornado.

http://www.chasertv.com/?p=887

And really impressive footage from Andy Gabrielson

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=l_kzKP0IYSY

If this link wont work go to youtube and putin Andy Hammon OK .

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Damn, missed the start of the severe storm season last night then!!

Tornado reports all in western Oklahoma:

Tornado Reports (in CSV format)

Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments

2357 HAMMON ROGER MILLS OK 3563 9938 DAMAGE TO SOUTHSIDE OF TOWN. DAMAGE TO COUNTY BARN AND 4 HOMES. POWER LINES AND POLES DOWNED. (OUN)

0016 7 N BUTLER CUSTER OK 3574 9919 OCCURRED FROM 616 PM TO 618 PM. LOCATION ESTIMATED. (OUN)

Looks like a tornado potential across lower Mississippi Valley later today, and a 'cold air air funnel or brief/weak tornado' over Ern KS/Wern MO.

Slight risk for day 2, though over crap territory for chasing in the lower Mississippi valley, would probably target Ern Arkansas where there's flat and open country.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Nice Video from Jason (ST) Of the Tornado North of Elk City. Amazing with 55f Temps and 50f Dewpoints, but remember on 14th November in Essex when I got the EF2 Tornado my Temp and Dewpoint spread was exactly the Same!

Great start to the season

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Went to bed a bit before midnight last night and saw the cells on the OK/TX border. They looked somewhat anemic at the time but must have really got their act together after I logged off. I woke back up with a splitting headache an hour later and checked ST again and saw the commotion but it was too late and I missed the first streamed tornado of the year :unknw: Some great footage from Andy Gabrielson there. Not sure you'd ever see me getting that close! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland
  • Location: Midleton, Cork, Ireland

WOW. Amazing footage. They were way too close to those power lines. Twister that far ahead of them could easily have caused a domino effect and brought live power lines right down on them. Timmer wouldn't even have done that. The powerlines bit I mean.

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