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Virtual Chases 2010


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Slight Risk for Wednesday across NW Texas and Southern Oklahoma

Will have lunch in Childress (Pats Favourite Place)

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE OF POSSIBLE

MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS

OF THE BAJA IMPULSE...ON DESTABILIZATION. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER

ASSOCIATED WITH RETURNING GULF MOISTURE MAY BE A PROBLEM AS WELL.

HOWEVER...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING SEEMS

PROBABLE...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING DRY LINE STRUCTURE...BY LATE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES...AND RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH A DRY MID-LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE

INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE

OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIDED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THIS IS EXPECTED INITIATE NEAR

WICHITA FALLS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST

TEXAS DURING THE 24/21-23Z TIME. RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW

FIELDS/SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION MAY MINIMIZE TORNADIC

POTENTIAL...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS

EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER... WEAKENING TRENDS ARE

ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTION SPREADS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DRY

LINE...AND THE PRE-DRY LINE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH

RADIATIONAL COOLING.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Live chase from brett Adair link not working great mind

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player-full.pl?username=brett.adair&uid=37

MAR 25 2000500 EDT

TORNADO

CITY: N ALABASTER

SHELBY CTY

AL

NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGED

ON HOUSE IN STONEY MEADOWS SUBDIVISION NEAR

CR 44 AND CR 17 IN THE FOX VALLEY AREA.

MAR 25 193500 EDT

TSTM WND DMG

5 MILES W FAIRVIEW

CULLMAN COUNTY

AL

TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND ESTIMATED 5 MILES

WEST OF FAIRVIEW, SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED SEEING

TREES AND DEBRI GETTING THROWN AROUND.

MAR 25 183000 EST

TSTM WND DMG

3 MILE W FALKVILLE

MORGAN COUNTY

AL

FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

POSSIBLE TORNADO. VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT REPORTED

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR MASSEY AL.

from earlier

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Pretty Active evening tonight out in Eastern USA. Just been a tornado emergency for High Point and Greensboro in NC with a large tornado reported with that storm earlier. Reports coming in of scattered damage with people trapped in High Point which is a large town (100,000 or so). Think the storm missed Greensboro to the North and radar presentation had decreased before it reached High Point, but it's still a dangerous looking storm. 5 Tor warnings in effect at the moment, with the most dangerous storm near Blacksburg on the SC/NC border. Strong couplet with that storm at the moment Heading towards Smyrna and then Charlotte which are the bigger population areas around here. No ground truth yet with this storm but there's already been one damaging tornado go through the Charlotte area earlier this evening...

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Add GA to the list. Very nice looking storm well away from the cold front. This should have a fair bit of time being isolated with the exception of the trailing storms back building behind it. Lovely hook and strong couplet...

post-1731-12698220813555_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

yes Gorky, as you say, pretty active out there tonight.

latest report for 'nado

0030 CROWDERS GASTON NC 3519 8121 POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR CROWDERS MOUNTAIN. (GSP)

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Seems even a Jetblue A320 got caught in the action earlier, being diverted to JFK after encountering Hail.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

post-24-12699478316355_thumb.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0354 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...

STG WRN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FROM WY-NM TO NWRN MEX BY START OF

DAY-4/2ND-3RD...WITH CONSENSUS AMONG BOTH ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL

MODELS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN NEWD LATE DAY-4 AND INTO

DAY-5/3RD-4TH...REACHING VICINITY LS BY END OF DAY-5. SFC CYCLONE

LIKEWISE SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...AS

COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD/SEWD OVER MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.

UKMET APPEARS TO BE LESS-RELIABLE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO

ECMWF/SPECTRAL AND MOST MREF MEMBERS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS S

TX DAYS 5-6/3RD-5TH AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL-REMOVED.

GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DAY-4 INVOF FRONT...BEGINNING

EARLY IN PERIOD OVER WRN PORTIONS SRN PLAINS...WHEN GEOMETRY OF MASS

FIELDS...MAX AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM...AND PROBABLE

ALIGNMENT OF FRONT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD OF DOMINANT LINEAR

ORGANIZATION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO

SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE ZONE

OVER TX...WHERE CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER DUE TO ANTECEDENT ELEVATED

MIXED LAYER. ACTUAL CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SVR THREAT IS LONGER THAN

30% AREA HERE...WHICH INSTEAD REPRESENTS BEST ESTIMATE OF

JUXTAPOSITION OF MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...RICHEST RETURNING MOISTURE

AND STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Something to maybe get our teeth into for Friday. Although not looking fantastic and I am a hater of Cold Fronts with embedded Supe's!

Thursday might throw up something but the Cap looks unbreakable so SunTan lotion might be a better bet!

Might get a few of the Southern Chasers from around Waco, Austin Live Stream this event, and a few of the Norman Based chasers might head down into N Texas near the Red River Valley.

Just nice to see a Risk at long last.

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Hah... looking later and T384 is an absolute peach - High Risk OK/KS type setup....

Been keeping my eye on the 5th and it still looks on for a severe event, probably upper end especially into NC OK and much of Kansas. The GFS has been all over the place with moisture return in FI (to be expected to be honest) but has been remarkably consistent with the timing of the troughs. It's had a trough coming through on the 2nd and then followed by another on the 5th for about a week now. Definitely keeping my eye on this one assuming the first system through doesn't wipe away the moisture from the Northern GoM.

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Tornadoes-In-North-Carolina-News-Up.jpg

tornadoes in North Carolina News Update

Several neighborhood and residences are said to be complete destroyed, Even an empty school bus went from the parking space to the sidewalk. The incident in the Tornadoes In North Carolina lasted simply seconds, then the horrifying incident took place. We will be sharing the new and the reports on this Tornadoes In North Carolina,

Weather Service Confirms Six Total NC Tornadoes

genthumbashx.jpg

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

After an active start to April on Fri 2nd it looks like a Re-Loading Pattern for Monday 5th onwards for Several Days of Severe Weather with Dryline Set-Ups across the Central & Southern Plains. Moisture should not be a problem for next week further North across Oklahoma and Kansas maybe even Nebraska in the mix.

Welcome to Storm Chase Season 2010 Proper!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0352 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...

STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK SHOULD LIFT NEWD UP

OH VALLEY DAY-4/3RD-4TH...OUTRUNNING ANY REMAINING/FAVORABLE

LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND LEAVING BEHIND FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS

CENTRAL GULF COAST AND CENTRAL/S TX. BEYOND THAT...WSW TO SW FLOW

ALOFT AND RELATED LEE CYCLONE/TROUGHING WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED

OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...AS WILL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MASS

ALOFT. CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL/MREF GUIDANCE STRONGLY INDICATES

NEXT COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES -- WITHIN BROADER PLUME OF

CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WRN CONUS DAY-5/4TH-5TH AND BEYOND -- WILL PASS

ACROSS ROCKIES FARTHER N AND WITH BROADER/RICHER MOIST SECTORS THAN

DAY-2/DAY-3 SYSTEM. THIS POTENTIALLY PORTENDS MULTIPLE DAYS OF AT

LEAST MRGL SVR POTENTIAL E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG AND SE OF FRONTAL

ZONES...OVER CENTRAL AND/OR SRN PLAINS STATES. ATTM...PROGGED

TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPECIFIC PERTURBATIONS...AND OF THEIR RELATED

LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES...IS TOO INCONSISTENT TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL

AREAS.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Tornadoes-In-North-Carolina-News-Up.jpg

tornadoes in North Carolina News Update

Several neighborhood and residences are said to be complete destroyed, Even an empty school bus went from the parking space to the sidewalk. The incident in the Tornadoes In North Carolina lasted simply seconds, then the horrifying incident took place. We will be sharing the new and the reports on this Tornadoes In North Carolina,

it was an EF3

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

510 PM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR HIGH POINT IN GUILFORD COUNTY NORTH

CAROLINA...

LOCATION...HIGH POINT IN GUILFORD COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA

DATE...03/28/2010

ESTIMATED TIME...730 EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3 ESTIMATED

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...138 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...250 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...

* FATALITIES...

* INJURIES...3

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS

STORM DATA.

..SUMMARY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH NC HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO

NEAR HIGH POINT IN SOUTHWEST GUILFORD COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON

03/28/2010.

THIS TORNADO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF THE TORNADOES THAT

EFFECTED DAVIDSON COUNTY.

THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY AT 730 PM EDT

NEAR OLD PLANK ROAD IN SOUTHWEST GUILFORD COUNTY. DAMAGE SURVEYED

INDICATED THE TORNADO WAS AN EF2 TORNADO WITH WINDS AROUND 130

MPH FOR MOST OF ITS DURATION...WITH WINDS BRIEFLY REACHING EF3

INTENSITY AND WINDS OF 138 MPH. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED TO JUST

NORTH OF SKEET CLUB ROAD...WITH AN AVERAGE PATH WIDTH OF 250

YARDS....AND EVENTUALLY LIFTED JUST NORTH OF SKEET CLUB ROAD.

DAMAGE WAS RATHER EXTENSIVE...SNAPPING NUMEROUS LARGE TREES IN

HALF AND DAMAGING OVER 200 HOMES ALONG THE PATH OF THE TORNADO. THE UPPER

LEVEL OF ONE HOME ON SILVERSTONE COURT WAS COMPLETELY REMOVED

FROM THE STRUCTURE. A SECOND STORY BEDROOM WAS BLOWN OFF OF A HOME

AT THE INTERSECTION OF OLD MILL AND BRANDON ROADS...AND THREE

PEOPLE WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEBRIS. ALL INJURIES WERE MINOR.

FURTHER DETAILS WILL PROVIDED WHEN THE SURVEY IS COMPLETE.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT

WEATHER.GOV/RAH.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO

THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.

EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.

EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.

EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.

EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.

EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

the same system dropped tornadoes in the Bahamas

http://www.bahamaislandsinfo.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5234:grand-bahama-hit-by-tornadoes&catid=33:News%20&%20Info%20about%20Grand%20Bahama&Itemid=146

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looks like a nice dryline set-up for storms later today across western parts of OK, S-central KS and NW Texas:

post-1052-12701115692755_thumb.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1145 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS/WRN

OK/NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL ADVANCE

EWD...REACHING THE ROCKIES BY EARLY FRI. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH

/CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN/ WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE CNTRL

HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THU EVENING...CONTINUING TOWARDS THE NRN HIGH

PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE

CNTRL CA COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...ONTO THE

SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD IMPULSE AND CONTINUE NEWD ALONG A

WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.

SECONDARY/WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS

THU EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT ATTENDING SOUTHWEST SHORT

WAVE TROUGH. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE WILL MERGE

WITH CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DRYLINE THU NIGHT.

...CNTRL KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX...

BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL

FLOW ADVECTING A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWD...WITH 55-60

DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON E OF DRYLINE BY 00Z/FRI. THIS

MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML...LIKELY

REMAINING STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...GIVEN

THE RELATIVELY MARGINAL QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LATER MOISTURE AND

DEEPER-LAYER FORCING REMAINING W/NW.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE

DRYLINE RETREATS WWD AND MERGES WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT...IN

CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE

TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL

SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL

AND PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.

...SERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN...

DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...A ROBUST WARM THETA-E

ADVECTION REGIME BETWEEN 850-700 MB THU EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS N OF RETREATING BAROCLINIC

ZONE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000

J/KG...STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF LEAD SHORT WAVE

TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT.

Higher probabilities tomorrow further SE and E towards and over Lower Mississippi area at 30% though SPC holding back on raising to Moderate with limiting factors.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Yeah

Been watching this and it has Cap Bust written all over it (For Daylight Hours at least)

If I was out there I would pick a starting location of Woodward (Ok) and hope something goes up along the Dryline at about 6-7pm, If that does'nt happen then an overnight Lightning and Hail risk to over-run the Hotel would be 2nd best.

Sun Tan Lotion as a Back-Up plan here!

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yes, could easily be a bust for a daylight chase ... some models hold the cap and don't break out precipitation at all, need some strong heating I suspect, but the Elevated Mixed Layer looks too deep to allow updrafts to break it. So could be some night time lightning shots being the play at some hotel in western OK :)

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

A deep upper trough, increasing surface moisture, and strong wind shear make a fairly “textbook” situation for some rough storms Friday. The map shown above from the SPC paints north Texas in a “30%” zone for severe potential.

swody3_03_31.jpg

This is defined as a probability of one or more events occurring within 25 miles of any point (within the zone) during the outlook period. To simplify, a 30% outlook given 2 days out (defined as "Day3" on map above) suggests a moderate potential of severe taking place on the day in question.

Several variables make the type and intensity of severe weather uncertain at this time. One of the main factors which will govern overall severity will be the timing of the upper trough, and cloud cover ahead of a surface dry line and cold front.

If skies clear and allow strong daytime heating along the dry line, it’s more likely we will see intense supercells which may include tornado-producing storms.

If clouds and lighter showers dominate the moist sector, then severe storms with wind damage and hail (with lower tornado potential) would dominate. The second scenario also favors storms to line up along a squall line, which tends to limit tornado potential.

An interesting week ahead

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Strong winds, possible tornado cause severe damage near Rush Springs

RUSH SPRINGS -- Strong storms and high winds have caused extensive damage in Southwest Oklahoma.

While a tornado has not been confirmed, homes were ripped apart in Rush Springs, forcing the closure of U.S. Highway 81 leading into town. The closure is due to downed power lines.

The storm in Rush Springs damaged at least two businesses and destroyed two mobile homes. There is also damage in Norman at 24th and Lindsey.

According to the Department of Emergency Management, wind gusts of 67 miles per hour were recorded in Southwestern Oklahoma. Oklahoma Gas & Electric reported nearly 3,800 power outages.

video

http://www.kfor.com/news/local/kfor-friday-rush-springs-update-story,0,3648706.story

http://www.koco.com/video/23033628/index.html

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

3 active Days coming Up across the Corn Belt and Plains starting with todays Slight Risk.

After looking at the NAM This morning i would not be surprised to see tomorrow go MODERATE

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS

RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

RELATIVELY FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL

ESPECIALLY FROM MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS TO THE GREAT

LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES. AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER

TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES...MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE

DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.

OTHERWISE...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEAST STATES HIGH

PRESSURE...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX

AND MUCH OF OK/ARKLATEX ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST KS/FAR NORTHEAST OK TO LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS RIVER

VALLEYS...

SUBTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ON THE LARGE

SCALE IMPLIES THAT STORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF

THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED/SLOWLY E-SE ADVANCING COLD FRONT

DURING THE DAY. BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EARLY

EVENING...THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC

LIFT REGIME...AIDED BY A PASSING SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE

UPPER MIDWEST...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT

ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO/NORTHERN IL...WITH

DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHWESTWARD

EXTENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO/SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE

FRONT AS FAR EAST AS THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...A WEAKLY

CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH STRONG

VERTICAL SHEAR /50+ KT/ WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR

SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR

TWO. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO GRADUALLY CONGEAL AS THEY DEVELOP

EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL

FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.

...AR/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON...

UNCLEAR/CONDITIONAL SCENARIO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AMIDST WEAK

FORCING/GRADUALLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...BUT ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL

GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z ETA-KF CONTROL/ IMPLIES

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEADY

MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E ADVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTM

INITIATION/SOME SEVERE RISK...AS THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY

HAIL/WIND.

...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK TO NORTHWEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING...

AMPLE HEATING/MODEST CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING

FRONT AND/OR DRYLINE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LATE

THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK

AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST TX. SCENARIO IS RATHER CONDITIONAL GIVEN

LIMITED SUPPORT ON THE LARGE SCALE AND MODEST NEAR-SURFACE

CONVERGENCE...BUT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH

MODERATELY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO

WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

4 tornados

0000 12 SE SALISBURY HOWARD MO 3930 9264 TREES DOWN EAST OF 129 ON B HIGHWAY JUSTEAST OF ROANOKE. DEBRIS SEEN ON GROUND. TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR 2-3 MILES....UNCOMFIRMED. (EAX)

0000 10 SE SALISBURY RANDOLPH MO 3932 9267 TREES DOWN EAST OF 129 ON B HIGHWAY JUSTEAST OF ROANOKE. DEBRIS SEEN ON GROUND. TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR 2-3 MILES....UNCOMFIRMED. (EAX)

0104 8 NNE MEXICO AUDRAIN MO 3927 9181 TORNADO ON THE GROUND. (LSX)

0114 4 NNE LADDONIA AUDRAIN MO 3930 9161 TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 19 AND US 54...MOVING EAST. (LSX)

27 Hail reports

small clip frpm March 30th

Florida car shop

http://news.yahoo.com/video/odd-15749658/tornado-caught-on-tape-18887871

Paul any Hotel core punching this year?

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

virtual Storm Chase last night, watching on ChaserTV.com one of the live broadcasters in Illinois (i think) was chasing a nice bit of low hanging cloud he came across a car upside down at side of road got out you was able to see a group of people by car he got back in his car and drove on so i asummed they must of been safe, he drove on for another couple of minutes when he came across another car upside down part on road part in ditch another car on roadside see a couple of people looking at car, first responders arrive then a sherifs car the chaser then drove past accident and placed his car on bend before the incident so i presume it was a bit more serious than first.

Weather conditions looked to be wet may have been hail.

Hope they got out safe.

Edited by gpspete
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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Tonight looks like a good event. SPC holding back on the KS threat due to Cap worries but a large 5% area out for northern MO. Just checked out the ST Joseph sounding and it looks amazing for this afternoon. The warm front looks like a good play here though if anything does pop on the dryline, I think that has a better chance of being chaseable. Gonna stick with St Joseph for my virtual chase target for tonight :lol:

St Joseph Skew-T: http://tinyurl.com/ybvxgl7

Edit: Just noticed the SPC have extended the Slight down through KS into OK now and bumped TOR probs to 10% hatched for Northern MO/Southern IA. Perhaps the SPC are getting more confident that the cap in KS will break... Might have to rethink and chase North Central KS instead :oops:

Edited by Gorky
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Good potential set-up today, though high risk of busting for the chaser - either you play the dry-line over NW/W Oklahoma into central KS or the retreating warm front over Sern IA/Nern MO, both reliant on EML cap break. If it does look like the cap break, I suppose SPC may issue a moderate risk given the probabilities and favourable dynamics for tornadoes and large hail. Will be interesting to see how it evolves later.

Another good severe potential day tomorrow, with SPC giving 30% probs over NE OK, Ern KS and NW MO - though not the most ideal chase territory, need a bit of luck around that area with terrain but not as bad further SE.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

Good potential set-up today, though high risk of busting for the chaser - either you play the dry-line over NW/W Oklahoma into central KS or the retreating warm front over Sern IA/Nern MO, both reliant on EML cap break. If it does look like the cap break, I suppose SPC may issue a moderate risk given the probabilities and favourable dynamics for tornadoes and large hail. Will be interesting to see how it evolves later.

Another good severe potential day tomorrow, with SPC giving 30% probs over NE OK, Ern KS and NW MO - though not the most ideal chase territory, need a bit of luck around that area with terrain but not as bad further SE.

hi Nick, storm prediction centre have reports for tornados in watch #50

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

425 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA

PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 425 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

TERRE HAUTE INDIANA TO 45 MILES NORTH OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0050.html

Edited by MAF
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