South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Nights King]

I have been lurking for a while and my whole family thinks I am a complete weather muppet.

Don't let my name fool you all - 'quantock near 40' didn't have the same ring!

welcome to the mad house! I have just returned from the pub.

Any good news on the snow front for us westerners this evening?

Edited January 18, 2010 by mullender83

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

afraid not the nae moves the threat further north and west we need it to move south!

Edited January 19, 2010 by Jonesywilliteversnow

[dancing daisy]

I am back with a much sunnier disposition this morning and to say that it all seems unclear for our area at the moment if this mornings weather forecast is anything to go by. Although the national forecast isn't showing snow for us.

I am over my snow tantrum now, you can't fight the force of nature! I know you all want it so for the greater forum good I will do my snow dance at work, it worked before!

Have a good day everyone!

[textmum]

Poor visisbility here today, really foggy, not sure I wan to venture out, but needs must!!

[dogs32]

Wednesday:

Cloudy with rain, heaviest in the south and west, but falling as snow across parts of central and southern England as well as parts of Wales.

Updated: 0300 on Tue 19 Jan 2010

Edited January 19, 2010 by dogs32

[Wynn D Woo]

Im still skeptical about the predicted snowfall for this area, at least for low lying areas, but the night has brought a definite change of air masses - foggy today as the colder air has edged in. Yesterday lunchtime i popped out in just a long sleeved t-shirt, i wont be doing the same today i dont think.

[jethro]

Happy Birthday Mullender!

[Iceberg]

Nothing is decided yet the lates 06Z slows down the front, allowing the colder air to move in more and then snow quite a bit further SW come tomorrow lunchtime. Covering the higher aspects of N.Devon, Somerset, Wilshire, even N.Dorset i.e Shaftesbury and anywhere NE in the region.

I wonder......

[dogs32]

Im still skeptical about the predicted snowfall for this area, at least for low lying areas, but the night has brought a definite change of air masses - foggy today as the colder air has edged in. Yesterday lunchtime i popped out in just a long sleeved t-shirt, i wont be doing the same today i dont think.

definately alot more colder today,regarding the snow Alex Deacon seemed more optimistic with snow on low level's this morning.

and more wide spread than yesterday's forecast for our area.

Edited January 19, 2010 by dogs32

[grab my graupel]

definately alot more colder today,regarding the snow ALEX DEACON seemed more optimistic with snow on low level's this morning.

and more wide spread than yesterday's forecast for our area.

Hi Pat

The NMM seems to suggest that it will, most likey, be of rain at lower levels, so there's still some uncertainty as to what will happen. It's looking like one of those wait to see situations

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Morning all,

Quite chilly again this morning, and definately grey! A typical January day.

[dogs32]

Hi Pat

The NMM seems to suggest that it will, most likey, be of rain at lower levels, so there's still some uncertainty as to what will happen. It's looking like one of those wait to see situations

Hi Brian,

yes wait and see is going to be the name of the game I think also

[SteveB]

I can't believe we are due snow tomorrow morning, & going by the latest model runs a severe cold spell could be on the cards as early as next Monday

I missed the boat big time here me thinks.

[grab my graupel]

Hi Brian,

yes wait and see is going to be the name of the game I think also

Yes, it's certainly an interesting one Pat. It looks like starting out as rain/ sleet before turning to snow,

even at lower levels for some, then back to rain again before fizzling out

As you say, though, there may be some nice surprises.

[snowking]

Morning all,

The key for me will be watching the only available surface factor from the NAE that we get - the 2m Temperature

To prove this, the last 3 runs of the model have the 950 and 850 mB temperatures more than sufficient for snowfall, including the 6z

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/19/basis06/ukuk/t850/10012012_2_1906.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/19/basis06/ukuk/t925/10012012_2_1906.gif

The issue with this mornings 6z comes from the 2m Temps:

High: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/19/basis06/ukuk/tmax/10012012_2_1906.gif

Low: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/19/basis06/ukuk/tmin/10012012_2_1906.gif

Average: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/19/basis06/ukuk/tmp2/10012012_2_1906.gif

So then to take the average, between 0-2c across much of Gloucestershire, Somerset, Wiltshire and Dorset. However, when you compare this to say, the 18z yesterday:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/18/basis18/ukuk/tmp2/10012012_2_1818.gif

Or even, the 12z Yesterday:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/18/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/10012012_2_1812.gif

So you can see we have a very slight warming trend at the surface from the 6z - certainly the higher end values of 2-3c would, for me, see nothing but sleet fairly widespread (certainly below around 200m, which is most of the westcountry!)

So then two possibilities here

1) The 6z is a blip - all eyes on the 12z (lets remember to look for the individual factors available to us rather than relying upon the rather ambiguous rainfall/snowfall charts to do the work (possibly incorrectly!) for us!)

2) The GFS has had a better handle on things all along and throws the NAE into some doubt (especially when you consider the fiasco in the South-East on December 21st when BBC Forecasts and Met office warnings were insistent on rainfall owing to the NAE output to lower levels, and we then saw large parts of the M25 and environs brought to a standstill)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs304.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs308.gif

:lol:

SK

[monkeyuk]

Metoffice weather warning just updated while I was looking on the site :lol:

South West England: Bath + NE Somerset

Bristol

Gloucestershire

N Somerset

S Gloucestershire

Swindon

Wiltshire

Heavy Snow Wed 20 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales on Wednesday.

Outbreaks of rain are expected to turn increasingly to sleet or wet snow, with accumulations of 1 to 3cm in places, and locally 4 to 7cm. Over southeast Wales, there is a risk of up to 10cm of snow on ground over 200m.

This may lead to some disruption to travel.

Issued at: 1121 Tue 19 Jan

[monkeyuk]

Ian has also uopdated his blog, http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

Interesting to read about the Wet Bulb Freezing Level (WBFL) which is coming into play for the weather tomorrow.

Edited January 19, 2010 by monkeyuk

[Nights King]

Happy Birthday Mullender!

Thanks for that!

I see they have downgraded my snow chances on my birthday though

[dancing daisy]

Ian has also uopdated his blog, http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/

Interesting to read about the Wet Bulb Freezing Level (WBFL) which is coming into play for the weather tomorrow.

Lurking at lunchtime. Bad me! Although we did do the snow dance for those that want it.

Well, I just read Ian's blog and I have come to the conclusion that I am a thick! I am sure it was written in layman speak so as to be accessible to all but I am obviously just incredibly slow.

I will have another go later on when I am not being constantly interrupted.

So, is it going to snow or not? I need answers for the team. lol

[SteveB]

Another borderline situation this one. Very much a case of seeing what comes out of the sky tomorrow morning. It looks as though it will all be washed away by Thursday's rain event.

[Nights King]

I have a feeling that i shall leave in the morning with rain/sleet which will turn to snow while i am in lowland bristol working and then be gone by the time i get back home from work!

[theprophecyman]

I have a feeling that i shall leave in the morning with rain/sleet which will turn to snow while i am in lowland bristol working and then be gone by the time i get back home from work!

Ditto

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Ditto

Oh wait, no chance of snow here

Oh, and I'm not working in Bristol... altho I will be soon there on a course.

[Iceberg]

Snow risk extended to N.Devon on the 12Z GFS Tomorrow morning, never say never.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Snow risk extended to N.Devon on the 12Z GFS Tomorrow morning, never say never.

Fortunately I don't live in N Devon I say this only because tomorrow I have an important meeting at work, and then someone coming around to view the house in the afternoon, so really don't want any snow. On Thursday the engineers are coming to fix the Aga, so its not allowed to snow then either! Friday... snow all it wants