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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Very interesting in that the UKMO further outlook have completely ditched the trend in the UKMO raw output and look to have gone with the ECM ensembles and dare I say it the trend of the GFS 06hrs run at least for the stalling front and this being pushed further west. However regardless of that outlook i would still have low confidence in anything past 96hrs and in terms of very cold and the propensity for models to make a complete mess of easterly type scenarios I wouldn't bank on this till within 72hrs, these stalling front scenarios and then being pushed west are a total nightmare to forecast!

Hope the MOD's don't mind me saying that the last update from Michael Fish indicated a block to the West and cold filtering in. This is simply amazing as the GEM 00Z & GFS 06Z have picked up on what the legend Michael Fish said a few days ago :help:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Very interesting in that the UKMO further outlook have completely ditched the trend in the UKMO raw output and look to have gone with the ECM ensembles and dare I say it the trend of the GFS 06hrs run at least for the stalling front and this being pushed further west.

Yep definitely with the ECM ensembles and dare I say it the 06Z GFS. I don't think the Met O outlook bears any resemblance to the ECM Operational.

Like you say F.I certainly begins at +96. The stalling front could become a nightmare to forecast. If the rest of the runs continue with this stalling front scenario then F.I will become around +24. The possiblity remains that someone could get a decent dumping of snow where the front stalls before retreating W.

Have to say its an amazing how different the Met O outlook is today compared to yesterday. We really need to learn a lesson here for the future because many assumed there was no chance of a cold spell for the rest of Jan.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Wow ... I thought I was looking at old charts are something for a second , how the pressure positions it self will decide the outcome but I have to say it is very close . I have never seen so much scatter on the Ensembles but one thing is clear to me , they either go Mild or Cold . (not really in between). That cold air is so close to the uk at the moment I would say the cold option is the most likely , Look at that front tomorrow for example it looks like it will fail to even reach Bristol now. If we get into an Easterly flow them cold 850's will filter in very very quickly.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

In actual fact there is not the hugest amount of difference between the UKMO and ECM at t144. There is still the presence of that Azores ridge there on the ECM that is close enough by to still cause hitches in the modelling. How often before have we seen the UKMO with these sort of situations at that time range and end up being right in terms of potential cold spells imploding? It is the sort of time period that means that expectations have to very cautious until there is complete model agreement here.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Looking at UKMO now for the first time it`s not as bad as I expected, high moving NE to join the scandi high and I see a dry outlook and a cold E/SE wind come off that,it`ll probably change on the 12z anyway.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Just look at the overall trends & use your instincts & experience - we are heading for a wintry last week in January continuing into early Feb. As with any cold scenario the detail will be sketchy until a day or even hours before.

Experience I'm afraid suggests it can still go wrong. I have made similar posts to yours once upon a time!

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Posted
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow

Have to say its an amazing how different the Met O outlook is today compared to yesterday. We really need to learn a lesson here for the future because many assumed there was no chance of a cold spell for the rest of Jan.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Yep definitely with the ECM ensembles and dare I say it the 06Z GFS. I don't think the Met O outlook bears any resemblance to the ECM Operational.

Like you say F.I certainly begins at +96. The stalling front could become a nightmare to forecast. If the rest of the runs continue with this stalling front scenario then F.I will become around +24. The possiblity remains that someone could get a decent dumping of snow where the front stalls before retreating W.

Have to say its an amazing how different the Met O outlook is today compared to yesterday. We really need to learn a lesson here for the future because many assumed there was no chance of a cold spell for the rest of Jan.

In terms of the possibility of cold at the end of January I think once the block wasn't going to sink then this increased the chances, the key was this staying far enough north to force low pressure in at a more favourable trajectory, the mild stalemate would have occured if the block would have sunk too far south allowing the jet into Scandi. In terms of the ukmo further outlook I have very low confidence in that and also any output past 96hrs not so much in terms of general pattern but detail which is going to be crucial. The stalling front is something I haven't seen for a long time and it will become very difficult for the models to get right. I never trust models on the first switch, these can have a habit of over reacting to upstream signals for this reason as everyone can see I'm being rather boring here by not calling the very cold easterly!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Experience I'm afraid suggests it can still go wrong. I have made similar posts to yours once upon a time!

Having said this Tamara experience was telling many that the E,ly would never occur and the mild Atlantic would win out. For some reason I saved many posts on this thread over the past 5 days!

However you're right this could still go wrong but so far its been a very different winter than what we're used to. Strangely its the mild thats being downgraded and the cold being upgraded.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (About 1 mile from the sea and at 89m above sea level)
  • Location: Brighton (About 1 mile from the sea and at 89m above sea level)

Have to say its an amazing how different the Met O outlook is today compared to yesterday. We really need to learn a lesson here for the future because many assumed there was no chance of a cold spell for the rest of Jan.

Except your good self and the Peterborough seagulls.

SS2

Don't you think it might be a little more sensible to wait and see what actually happens before handing out the plaudits? If we go back a week and see what the flipin P'boro seagulls were saying about this week's weather, they would have been made into seagull pie by now!

As for the models this morning, they are far too varied to guarantee any particular weather for next week. Overall, however, they are trending towards more of a continental influence than an Atlantic influence after the weekend, but it may well be just a gentle SEasterly flow, or might be more pronounced, but far too early to call.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

I tend to agree TWS, the gfs 06hrs whilst great to look at is still not the most favoured outcome, it comes to something when i can't even trust its output at only 96hrs! Theres just too much uncertainty at the moment especially with the UKMO 00hrs run which looks very un-enthusiastic, i think high pressure closeby looks like a good call but to get to the gfs 06hrs requires alot to go right in the earlier stages, the way it halts the front sends the low nw at the same time developing a shortwave digging se'wards requires a leap of faith!

I will be very interested to see the UKMO further outlook today, just what will they come up with given the model uncertainty.

Personally, I think that FI is between T48 and T60 at the moment. T72 ( from now 13:30 GMT) is Friday lunchtime, where we are not certain whether the Front is stalling (GFS), whipping through (UKMO), or somewhere between the 2 (ECM).

Unfortunately the 96 hour FAX is still an old one, will have to wait to see what it says

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Posted
  • Location: Biggin Hill Kent (205m often in the low temp league)
  • Location: Biggin Hill Kent (205m often in the low temp league)

By Saturday Berlin will be -10c Warsaw -16c Moscow -23c St Petersburg -26c -Probably the coldest max temps of the winter-something is brewing and in the next couple of days the models will show that cold air cant be bottled up . We might get a a Jan 87 or Feb 91 as Europe gets even colder who knows . A trend has been picked up and it may well take a few days longer than expected to get here. The best winter for years and I love reading the experts posts . The trouble is we are so used to the default winter we cant possibly believe a colder spell could be on its way. :yahoo:

Edited by thevalley
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Indeed, why would seagulls come onshore in preparation for an easterly? They aren't more psychically advanced than us humans- even if they do come onshore because they 'think' there might be an easterly (which seems very unlikely to me), they might get it wrong sometimes just like we do.

It remainds me of the running joke I used to have, claiming that a white Christmas in Cleadon (in the >50% snow cover during daylight hours sense) is dependent on whether or not Daffy Duck's Quackbusters is televised (as the only two white Christmasses by that measure since I began recording were in 1993 and 1995, and those were the only two years when they broadcasted Daffy Duck's Quackbusters). This predictive measure failed for the first time last year.

I agree with the lack of consensus over next week's weather. UKMO at T+144 hasn't performed too badly recently, although even that chart probably wouldn't give a particularly mild outcome, even if the upper air ends up mild we could easily have inversion cold.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I was not in when the 06z GFS run came out so imagine my surprise when I saw what it had to offer.

Then of course I remembered that it was the 06 run and not the 0z or the 12z that does not mean it

will not happen just that I have placed a great big ? beside it.

Although we did not witness it on the internet the bitter spell in Jan 87 had the forcasters the Wednesday

before forcasting the Scandinavian high to pull back or sink and I remember thinking you never know

maybe it won't (as in previous cold spells) and sure enough, the rest is history.

My point being you never know in these situations take last winter for example we saw a 1055mb high

over eastern Scandinavia sink without trace after just two days and the comments of dismay that

followed as to how such a strong intense high could sink so fast.

This time though we do have hights further north over the Arctic and also a strong STJ and this could

very well make all the difference.

As for the UKMO updated outlook I think I have made it clear what I think of them.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

If we go back a week and see what the flipin P'boro seagulls were saying about this week's weather, they would have been made into seagull pie by now!

Considering the possible snow tomorrow/Friday they have been more accurate than some!

Im still of the opinion that the front on Friday has more potential than tomorrow especially if the GFS continues with the trend.

Just seen TWS post. Let me just say that back in Jan 1987 there was a swarm of Seagulls in my area. The very same day I spotted this was the day the BBC warned of the impending E,ly. Exactly the same happened again in Feb 91!

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

OK guys Model Discusion, not alternaive methods or how nature works in here please.

Thank you :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (About 1 mile from the sea and at 89m above sea level)
  • Location: Brighton (About 1 mile from the sea and at 89m above sea level)

Considering the possible snow tomorrow/Friday they have been more accurate than some!

Im still of the opinion that the front on Friday has more potential than tomorrow especially if the GFS continues with the trend.

Just seen TWS post. Let me just say that back in Jan 1987 there was a swarm of Seagulls in my area. The very same day I spotted this was the day the BBC warned of the impending E,ly. Exactly the same happened again in Feb 91!

And I'm sure in the intervening 18 years there have been just as many flocks (not swarms!) of seagulls that you hadn't noticed, or chose to ignore as they didn't fit the criteria. Any chance you could just drop the talk of flipin seagulls now, as it is a forum for model discussion ? Perhaps you could open a seagull thread and discuss them in there?

Last week the models were pointing towards benign weather early on, a coolish midweek and then wet, and that is what seems to be happening. For next week they are trending towards colder and more continental influence. I really have no idea how you can say that what you were talking about last week is coming to fruition, or are you doing it just to wind people up ? !!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The coming front looks a weedy affair on the radar I think any snow will be extremely light.

The 06oz zapps the cold air and re-introduces milder uppers on Wednesday before these fade away. Some minus -5 does fringe the east unlike the real cold blast shown yesterday. More likely freezing rain if anything wintry comes out of the front. The real cold suddenly pushed well back into FI and we have once again a total different view of advents.

A mild wet day on Friday then back to more normal temps for the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Crowle and Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire

And I'm sure in the intervening 18 years there have been just as many flocks (not swarms!) of seagulls that you hadn't noticed, or chose to ignore as they didn't fit the criteria. Any chance you could just drop the talk of flipin seagulls now, as it is a forum for model discussion ? Perhaps you could open a seagull thread and discuss them in there?

Last week the models were pointing towards benign weather early on, a coolish midweek and then wet, and that is what seems to be happening. For next week they are trending towards colder and more continental influence. I really have no idea how you can say that what you were talking about last week is coming to fruition, or are you doing it just to wind people up ? !!

The models may have been pointing towards what you say, but TEITS said all along that the weather would be turning colder again irrespective of model output even GP said that colder weather could return briefly to some extent toward the end of the month.

I think someone just needs to cast their minds back to last week where many including TEITS and many others including myself said this so-called milder (which actually turned out Average) period would be a brief respite.

I cannot understand the negativity in here sometimes there is so much time left of Winter and we haven't even entered the traditionally coldest month.

Edited by rikki
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Any chance you could just drop the talk of flipin seagulls now, as it is a forum for model discussion ? Perhaps you could open a seagull thread and discuss them in there?

Thank you, all non Model related conversation about any up-coming cold spell: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60375-cold-spell-discussion/

Or we can do it for you........... :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (About 1 mile from the sea and at 89m above sea level)
  • Location: Brighton (About 1 mile from the sea and at 89m above sea level)

The models may have been pointing towards what you say, but TEITS said all along that the weather would be turning colder again irrespective of model output even GP said that colder weather could return briefly to some extent toward the end of the month.

I think someone just needs to cast their minds back to last week where many including TEITS and many others including myself said this so-called milder (which actually turned out Average) period would be a brief respite.

I cannot understand the negativity in here sometimes there is so much time left of Winter and we haven't even entered the traditionally coldest month.

You have to remember that milder is a comparative term, not an absolute. The weather has not been mild (although it wasn't far off on Sunday), but it has been milder than last week. Not that many actually said mild if I remember rightly. I think I said 'fairly cold at times in the east but nothing too severe', whilst others said less cold. You also have to be careful not to confuse negativity with objectivity. Saying that a week is going to be milder instead of a brass-monkey easterly is not being negative, it is interpreting the models in the way that they appear to be moving.

Looking at the models today, I'm sure there are as many opinions as there are permutations on each model run and I'm sure many will guess correctly and many will not, but with the current output it is much more likely to be by luck than judgement. And of course colder weather is likely to return at some point, as, after all, we're only just over half way through January. The skill is to try and work out when the cold is going to return, rather than calling 'cold' every week and then claiming some sort of victory because one in three times you get it right...

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire
  • Location: Huddersfield, W.Yorkshire

I am often extremely impressed with the experience and professionalism you people have in relation to our weather. I try very hard to follow and try to understand the 'ensembles', 'runs' etc that you all refer to and the UKMO's outlook and predictions, But, I would back you anyday and seriously think you should apply, as a group possibly, for the post at the UKMO.

I am still of the opinion, after following your views based on the models etc and your own opinions that we are very likely to see another winter of '82'cold.gifcold.gifcold.gif coming up. I say this based on my own experience of that winter and the similar trends to what we have seen so far, and to your own opinions. P.S.....I did NOT mention any seagullswhistling.gif , but my cat has been behaving strangely since our first bout of nasty weather hit us.rolleyes.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not much comment on the nogaps 00z today......I wonder why, could it be because there is no E'ly showing next week? OR for that matter the ukmo 00z, no E'ly there either.

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

Not much comment on the nogaps 00z today......I wonder why, could it be because there is no E'ly showing next week? OR for that matter the ukmo 00z, no E'ly there either.

NOGAPS has a poor verification record for Europe (I have never consulted this model for the past 7 years) - I am reliably informed that there will be a big swing towards the Easterley on tonights UKMO

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

The coming front looks a weedy affair on the radar I think any snow will be extremely light.

The 06oz zapps the cold air and re-introduces milder uppers on Wednesday before these fade away. Some minus -5 does fringe the east unlike the real cold blast shown yesterday. More likely freezing rain if anything wintry comes out of the front. The real cold suddenly pushed well back into FI and we have once again a total different view of advents.

A mild wet day on Friday then back to more normal temps for the weekend.

I agree with regards to the event Tomorrow , but if the rest of your comments are still referring to the 6z GFS run , then your not looking properly , the cold air is in by +96 and it shows it to keep getting colder and colder. There is around 50/50 it could go either way , but the GFS 6z takes the cold route very early on.

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