Model Output Discussion

[Tim Bland]

:cc_confused:Confused.com Getting tired of this merry go round! BBC look east are going for the atlantic to return on Tues with rain but showed max of 3c. IMO the best way of most areas getting snow is what the Meto further outlook is alluding to - Cold in the east, atlantic fronts in the west. Although they dont say this but if you read between the lines then the ofrcast would be - snow in the middle. This 'middle' areas could move east and west several times before one or the other wins giving most areas some snow. i was confident of the GFS yesterday as the ensembles where solid. Now it has backed away and the others are comming on board. I think i'll join the 'on the fence crew' for now and hope its resolved soon!

The short term uncertanty is obvious with one met forecaster saying one thing and the next another. For example the Look East lunchtime forecast viewable here ;http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/324 goes for the atlantic to return on Tues. The Met office forecast says this; Central and eastern areas probably having a good deal of dry weather but with an ongoing risk of some wintry showers.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z turns into a bit of a rollercoaster ride with low pressure then a ridge then low etc through FI with attempted N'ly's which topple oh so quicky but there is a lot more energy being pumped into the northern arm of the jet which is similar to what the ecm was showing yesterday, I don't think it would take much of a shift for a potent N'ly to develop rather than the glancing blows the gfs shows, 18z will hopefully give us a direct hit like last night.

[yamkin]

It really is a model merry go round at the moment with each model taking turns to go cold then backtracking. The UKMO is great this evening but it's hard to know what to believe given recent days.

Nick, What is your opinion regarding GME 12Z? Am I right in saying that the Germans hold the GME model in high esteem? The 12Z model is simply fantastic tonight :lol:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

This has to be the most bizarre period of model watching i can remember!!

Never have i seen so much flipping and flopping in the reliable timeframe,we can only interpret what we see and

its changing daily so i guess the conclusion is nobody really knows whats happening as early as T+96.

Gfs is a horror show but ukmo looks better,gme looks okay =.

Be interesting to see what ecm comes up with,i dont think any of us really have a clue what it will serve up tho'.

[john mac]

Lots of tooing and froing again today, still nothing is nailed on, however i feel that we should take more notice of the euro's as they have perfomed better this winter.

If we cast ourselves back to the last cold spell the GFS picked up on the easterly then the euro's after then the GFS backed away, now the same thing is happening again

We will IMO have some sortb easterly but this may upgrade as we get into a more reliable timeframe which at the momemt is only 2-3 days.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A few of the posts regarding the UKMO are quite misleading- there is no potent easterly on that run (although we do get pretty close at around T+96-120). The main cold/snow-related interest comes from the potential for a potent northerly following the T+144 chart- also the ECMWF 00Z showed some kind of northerly in FI although not as potent as the one that would follow the UKMO T+144.

It looks like we will get an easterly of some kind in about 4-5 days' time but a watered-down, cloudy version with the cold upper air never really making it across.

The models are starting to drift towards the kind of solutions that the teleconnections were suggesting, with high pressure over and to the west of Britain and a Scandinavian trough, which may keep it mild and cloudy but could also give some northerly outbreaks bringing colder brighter weather and wintry showers.

[reef]

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