Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion


Coast

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

The 12z is already majorly different just 24 hours away having the front over the Midlands and much furtehr east in general.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

NOGAPS has a poor verification record for Europe (I have never consulted this model for the past 7 years) - I am reliably informed that there will be a big swing towards the Easterley on tonights UKMO

Well we hope there is a big swing towards an E'ly on the ukmo 12z but there are no guarantees of that, just because the meto binned their own raw output in favour of the colder ecm ensembles and had lingering look at the gfs 06z before hitting the send button on the latest update.

Edited by Frosty039
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

The 12z is very likely to show an Easterly now , the Front as stalled earlier and is being forced further North . The massive pressure build extends from Southern Europe right to the North of Scandinavia and beyond , there is NO way the Atlantic is breaking through that this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO, it's when the slugs do the Salsa; that's when you really need wake-up??? Until then, it's all guesswork??? :):D:):D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

The 12z is very unlikely to show an Easterly now , the Front as stalled earlier and is being forced further North . The massive pressure build extends from Southern Europe right to the North of Scandinavia and beyond , there is NO way the Atlantic is breaking through that this week.

*Unlikely

Everything is further east so far and therefore Fridays weather system manages to clear the UK and we get left in a calm but not particulary cold no mans land with the high at the wrong angle to drag in anything more than South East winds, seems more realistic than the 06z though hopefully not going to happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Love the shape of this high , talk about it sticking 2 fingers up at the UK and saying you not getting any Easterly from me . A lot of you won't agree but out to +108 this run looks a little odd.

Rtavn1081.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

GFS 12z at 120 shows us it loves us with a heart shaped high all the way from siberiacold.gif

Rtavn1202.png

Edited by andymusic
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

*Unlikely

Everything is further east so far and therefore Fridays weather system manages to clear the UK and we get left in a calm but not particulary cold no mans land with the high at the wrong angle to drag in anything more than South East winds, seems more realistic than the 06z though hopefully not going to happen.

by +132 as I said an Easterly is starting to get dragged in , albeit slightly ESE at first. My point was that high isn't going anywhere. If you look at the low pressure at +138 over us , you will see were still under 1020mb pressures over the uk .

EDIT at +108

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In terms of the orientation of the high, this is likely to change several times, the UKMO at 120hrs thankfully ditches its 00hrs output and goes with the block. In typical model fashion the ukmo now looks much better than the gfs 12hrs at 144hrs!

Edited by nick sussex
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

After looking at the GFS for the past few days I'm going for a widespread snow event on Friday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Horrible looking synoptics if you ask me. I never have liked the look of continental sinking highs

of course this could be a duff run but until the Euro's and the ensembles come out we will not

know.

Plus of course the orientation of the high which is so important will likely change over the next

few runs so all is definitely not lost.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

After looking at the GFS for the past few days I'm going for a widespread snow event on Friday morning.

You could well be right with it backing off the temps with every run and the cold having more of an influence over us - just looking out the window now at the tops of the mountains with their decorative bits of white snow - was always told that snow hanging about is waiting about for the next lot of snow! - we could well be getting some more tomorrow and thursday into friday if the cold easterly still pushes onwards!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

Proper cold air comes in at T+168, the run has been very dry so far(GFS)

Edited by Snowman0697
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow

Phew, this model watching is becoming exhausting! just where does the high go now, this wasn't supposed to happen a week ago. It is odds on now that we are in for another spell of vey cold weather.

SS2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

After looking at the GFS for the past few days I'm going for a widespread snow event on Friday morning.

No chance according to latest output with 850's well above freezing , My thought's on this weeks runs is that it should get progressively colder over the weekend , Either from the East or from being trapped under the high with Frost and Fog becoming widespread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Proper cold air comes in at T+168, the run has been very dry so far

The UKMO is bitterly cold at 144hrs with snow showers into the east, its high is better orientated but there are bound to be more changes!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Bishopbriggs, near Glasgow

Horrible looking synoptics if you ask me. I never have liked the look of continental sinking highs

of course this could be a duff run but until the Euro's and the ensembles come out we will not

know.

Plus of course the orientation of the high which is so important will likely change over the next

few runs so all is definitely not lost.

Wouldn,t say the high was sinking, if anything it is moving in a NW direction.

SS2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

So far this afternoon, UKMO 12z has a very cold Easterly with snow showers, while GFS 12z is very cold but dry, with a few flurries on Eastern Coasts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Whilst it looks as though the siberian high will be victorious next week, there is hardly any ppn anywhere on the gfs 12z run but at least it looks like a frosty week if it verifies.

As snowman says, the ukmo looks better for snow prospects.

Edited by Frosty039
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Whilst it looks as though the siberian high will be victorious next week, there is hardly any ppn anywhere on the gfs 12z run but at least it looks like a frosty week if it verifies.

get the cold in 1st - then worry about precip/snow!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

I think comments suggesting many changes to come are pretty spot on, so no need to get elated or depressed at this stage. Not sure about all the way from Siberia, looks more like Greece to me, but as I say this will change a few times. Yet again this run looks cold but mainly dry at least out to the mid-range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I think given some of the changes in the model output over the last few days I'm reluctant to get too excited about the output! the crucial part of the output is between 120hrs and 144hrs and thats far enough away given the complexities of easterlies to remain a long way away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Wouldn,t say the high was sinking, if anything it is moving in a NW direction.

SS2

Hi SS2 It looks to me that the eventual sinking high would be the likely outcome unless we see the High heading towards Greenland which doesn't happen on the 12z due to the amount of energy that has bottled up to the North of the high . Things are going to change though and It could be a case of the Cold spell being extended by a few days and maybe even a reload patten .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...