Model Output Discussion

[conor123]

The 12z is already majorly different just 24 hours away having the front over the Midlands and much furtehr east in general.

[Frosty.]

NOGAPS has a poor verification record for Europe (I have never consulted this model for the past 7 years) - I am reliably informed that there will be a big swing towards the Easterley on tonights UKMO

Well we hope there is a big swing towards an E'ly on the ukmo 12z but there are no guarantees of that, just because the meto binned their own raw output in favour of the colder ecm ensembles and had lingering look at the gfs 06z before hitting the send button on the latest update.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 12z is very likely to show an Easterly now , the Front as stalled earlier and is being forced further North . The massive pressure build extends from Southern Europe right to the North of Scandinavia and beyond , there is NO way the Atlantic is breaking through that this week.

[Methuselah]

IMO, it's when the slugs do the Salsa; that's when you really need wake-up??? Until then, it's all guesswork???

[conor123]

The 12z is very unlikely to show an Easterly now , the Front as stalled earlier and is being forced further North . The massive pressure build extends from Southern Europe right to the North of Scandinavia and beyond , there is NO way the Atlantic is breaking through that this week.

*Unlikely

Everything is further east so far and therefore Fridays weather system manages to clear the UK and we get left in a calm but not particulary cold no mans land with the high at the wrong angle to drag in anything more than South East winds, seems more realistic than the 06z though hopefully not going to happen.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Love the shape of this high , talk about it sticking 2 fingers up at the UK and saying you not getting any Easterly from me . A lot of you won't agree but out to +108 this run looks a little odd.

[andymusic]

GFS 12z at 120 shows us it loves us with a heart shaped high all the way from siberia

[snowmadchrisuk]

*Unlikely

Everything is further east so far and therefore Fridays weather system manages to clear the UK and we get left in a calm but not particulary cold no mans land with the high at the wrong angle to drag in anything more than South East winds, seems more realistic than the 06z though hopefully not going to happen.

by +132 as I said an Easterly is starting to get dragged in , albeit slightly ESE at first. My point was that high isn't going anywhere. If you look at the low pressure at +138 over us , you will see were still under 1020mb pressures over the uk .

EDIT at +108

[nick sussex]

In terms of the orientation of the high, this is likely to change several times, the UKMO at 120hrs thankfully ditches its 00hrs output and goes with the block. In typical model fashion the ukmo now looks much better than the gfs 12hrs at 144hrs!

[Cheese Rice]

After looking at the GFS for the past few days I'm going for a widespread snow event on Friday morning.

[cooling climate]

Horrible looking synoptics if you ask me. I never have liked the look of continental sinking highs

of course this could be a duff run but until the Euro's and the ensembles come out we will not

know.

Plus of course the orientation of the high which is so important will likely change over the next

few runs so all is definitely not lost.

[andymusic]

After looking at the GFS for the past few days I'm going for a widespread snow event on Friday morning.

You could well be right with it backing off the temps with every run and the cold having more of an influence over us - just looking out the window now at the tops of the mountains with their decorative bits of white snow - was always told that snow hanging about is waiting about for the next lot of snow! - we could well be getting some more tomorrow and thursday into friday if the cold easterly still pushes onwards!

[Ben_Cambs]

Proper cold air comes in at T+168, the run has been very dry so far(GFS)

[sandstorm2]

Phew, this model watching is becoming exhausting! just where does the high go now, this wasn't supposed to happen a week ago. It is odds on now that we are in for another spell of vey cold weather.

SS2

[snowmadchrisuk]

After looking at the GFS for the past few days I'm going for a widespread snow event on Friday morning.

No chance according to latest output with 850's well above freezing , My thought's on this weeks runs is that it should get progressively colder over the weekend , Either from the East or from being trapped under the high with Frost and Fog becoming widespread.

[nick sussex]

Proper cold air comes in at T+168, the run has been very dry so far

The UKMO is bitterly cold at 144hrs with snow showers into the east, its high is better orientated but there are bound to be more changes!

[cooling climate]

The UKMO comes up with a cracking looking easterly(on meteociel) at t144.

Ah you just beat me Nick, yes lovely chart.

[sandstorm2]

Horrible looking synoptics if you ask me. I never have liked the look of continental sinking highs

of course this could be a duff run but until the Euro's and the ensembles come out we will not

know.

Plus of course the orientation of the high which is so important will likely change over the next

few runs so all is definitely not lost.

Wouldn,t say the high was sinking, if anything it is moving in a NW direction.

SS2

[Ben_Cambs]

So far this afternoon, UKMO 12z has a very cold Easterly with snow showers, while GFS 12z is very cold but dry, with a few flurries on Eastern Coasts.

[Frosty.]

Whilst it looks as though the siberian high will be victorious next week, there is hardly any ppn anywhere on the gfs 12z run but at least it looks like a frosty week if it verifies.

As snowman says, the ukmo looks better for snow prospects.

[andymusic]

Whilst it looks as though the siberian high will be victorious next week, there is hardly any ppn anywhere on the gfs 12z run but at least it looks like a frosty week if it verifies.

get the cold in 1st - then worry about precip/snow!

[weather eater]

I think comments suggesting many changes to come are pretty spot on, so no need to get elated or depressed at this stage. Not sure about all the way from Siberia, looks more like Greece to me, but as I say this will change a few times. Yet again this run looks cold but mainly dry at least out to the mid-range.

[nick sussex]

I think given some of the changes in the model output over the last few days I'm reluctant to get too excited about the output! the crucial part of the output is between 120hrs and 144hrs and thats far enough away given the complexities of easterlies to remain a long way away.

[Ben_Cambs]

Deep in FI it there appears to be a northerly/northwesterly on GFS 12z

[snowmadchrisuk]

Wouldn,t say the high was sinking, if anything it is moving in a NW direction.

SS2

Hi SS2 It looks to me that the eventual sinking high would be the likely outcome unless we see the High heading towards Greenland which doesn't happen on the 12z due to the amount of energy that has bottled up to the North of the high . Things are going to change though and It could be a case of the Cold spell being extended by a few days and maybe even a reload patten .