Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Tantalisingly close to here! http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/20/basis12/ukuk/prty/10012206_2012.gif

I'm still unconvinced though - uppers look to be above freezing, never mind -5! Models still look undecided on the easterly - maybe Shuggee is right - the PV dropping towards us could bring as much snow, if not more, than last time! Ideal scenario would be this easterly as shown on the 12Z, followed by the trough dropping southwards towards us,stalling just in the North Sea allowing polar lows to form, moving further south to bring easterly winds and then a big block forming over Iceland to keep the cold winds going! Now that would be something! I still want to get the most out of this siberian block, not least because I feel the longer it sticks in the right place for, the more chance of some WAA (I think) getting into Iceland and blocking to start.

LS

[Snowplough33]

Tantalisingly close to here! http://expert.weathe...012206_2012.gif

I'm still unconvinced though - uppers look to be above freezing, never mind -5! Models still look undecided on the easterly - maybe Shuggee is right - the PV dropping towards us could bring as much snow, if not more, than last time! Ideal scenario would be this easterly as shown on the 12Z, followed by the trough dropping southwards towards us,stalling just in the North Sea allowing polar lows to form, moving further south to bring easterly winds and then a big block forming over Iceland to keep the cold winds going! Now that would be something! I still want to get the most out of this siberian block, not least because I feel the longer it sticks in the right place for, the more chance of some WAA (I think) getting into Iceland and blocking to start.

LS

Surely if 12z comes off, some convective snow for us, Sunday no??? Cold uppers + low enough thickness??

Edited January 20, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Cheggers]

Rain most of the way back from Alexandria this evening, but there was a dusting starting to appear on top of the Campsie Fells.

Currently 2.5 here and very fine drizzle rubbish. Agree with CMD that the place needs a wash before the weather repaints us all white again.

[LomondSnowstorm]

ECM gives us some snowfall over the weekend from this shortwave but fails to bring in an easterly of any sort.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Shuggee's PV relocation is a bit clearer on this chart though. Perhaps an interesting FI to come!

LS

[snowy owl]

Mmmmmm, heavy rain!! I actually really like rain, especially when we've not had much for a while. The place could do with a good wash too.

True CMD the rain would be of benefit by the track to my house is already resembling a mud bath!!

Though the pavements and grit could do with disappearing.

[LomondSnowstorm]

True CMD the rain would be of benefit by the track to my house is already resembling a mud bath!!

Though the pavements and grit could do with disappearing.

The pavements disappearing? That would take some rainfall

Anyway, ECM FI was, in a word, awful. The high just sinks, leaving high pressure right across our south with the PV not looking like moving much further south at all. It still shows the snow risk at +96 though, so there's at least some comfort in the fact that in the reliable timeframe there's still scope for snow events.

LS

[Allyw12]

Good evening all

Been keeping an eye on the discussions the past few days, it seems our chances for snow are fading. I agree with LS who said the other day we just want one good dump of snow. Iike march 06 that was a dump of snow!!!

[snowy owl]

The pavements disappearing? That would take some rainfall

Lol! hadn't noticed that one! doh!

Time for a caffeine hit i think!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

18Z - ya beauty! http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png http://charts.netwea...168/h500slp.png

That last chart is most definitely what Shuggee means alright! PV dropping out of Scandi, bringing in 510 thicknesses and probably the perfect set up for polar lows - maybe this time Catch! Still FI of course but it has moved into the high resolution. This also shows that the high sinking south is not what we want for the short or long term - what we need is the PV to descend from the north sinking the high at that point, but any earlier and we end up with the jet stream tracking right through us - http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif compared to http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png. The difference is that the trough to the northwest is not influencing our weather on the GFS, while the ECM chart has it influencing our weather. It also means that the low to the north-northeast is stronger on the GFS and there is far more blocking across the Atlantic on the GFS. Given the other outputs, I would, for once, favour the GFS output, as the ECM evidently struggles with pattern changes e.g. mid-December, while the ECM seems to be too quick to blow away the block. Maybe, though, it's time for something completely different! WMC http://91.121.94.83/...un/wmc-1-84.png as usual decides to relocate the poles at around 84 hours - didn't see that one coming!

LS

edit: Just realised that this is the only forum in the world (I think) which has never invoked Godwin's Law http://uk.wrs.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9mSvd1rlFdLl5MA6Rh3Bwx.;_ylu=X3oDMTExcXNkdHFhBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2lyZAR2dGlkAwRsA1dTMQ--/SIG=11t1smjnh/EXP=1264117227/**http%3A//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

Edited January 20, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

edit: Just realised that this is the only forum in the world (I think) which has never invoked Godwin's Law http://uk.wrs.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9mSvd1rlFdLl5MA6Rh3Bwx.;_ylu=X3oDMTExcXNkdHFhBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2lyZAR2dGlkAwRsA1dTMQ--/SIG=11t1smjnh/EXP=1264117227/**http%3A//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

That is a really stupid "law" anyway. Surely the probability of anything being mentioned in a discussion will always approach 1 as any discussion progresses?? It's pretty obvious.

Here's one: "As an online discussion on cold weather grows longer, the probability of Catch mentioning Polar Lows approaches 1"

In fact, one of the few instances that this law doesn't carry is in discussion of itself: "As an online discussion on Godwin's Law progresses the probability of someone stating the obvious cannot approach one as it is already 1".

Anyway, snow for Perth & Kinross and parts of Stirlingshire tonight (according to BBC).

[Guest]

I see the Met-O have scaled back the rain advisory for today and tomorrow:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

What's going on? We can't even get proper rain anymore If we don't get a deluge here between now and the end of the month we will have had a very dry after a very dry December. Wet spring/summer anyone?? :lol:

Looking good for snow at altitude though, in central Scotland :)

Edited January 21, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[shuggee]

NMM precipitation type charts for tonight - mountain snow only:

[lorenzo]

Its a big fat stalemate ! And weather conditions are pretty benign dare I say Borrrrring !

[snowy owl]

yep shuggee - as i mentioned yesterday, thought it was looking more like rain than snow for tonight. Shame!

However the synoptics are still showing some positive signs, lets hope things shape up for more cold. As usual things still a bit unsure to say the least. keep watching those models.

[Sunny Leith]

Got to admit my expectations for the rest of the month are now pretty minimal. Looks like on balance we'll be flirting with rather-cold to just-above-average temperatures till the end of January. At least that should keep the monthly average temperature overall on the below average side, and the interest for me then will be just where this January average then ranks in the list of the last 25, 50 or 100 years.

February ... impossible to say. Wouldn't be surprised to see further snow events either then or in March. But thats just hopecasting.

Edited January 21, 2010 by by-tor

[Allyw12]

Hi all

Everyone at work is thinking there is snow tonight because the BBC said so , told them its going to be rain. Anyway dissapointed that were missing out again on a dump of snow , lets hope feb is kind to us!!

[Northernlights]

Sheepwatch !!! Wintering sheep are dancing round the fields again today and doing four legged jumps in the air just as they did about 10 days before the last very cold spell. We"ll see if they are more consistent than the models but it could be that they are enjoying a little bit of fresh grass emerging from under the snow after a month of eating dry hay and are not expecting any more snow.

Currently 2c, partly cloudy and fresh SE wind.

[Cheese Rice]

Looks like some places could well get several cm's in Scotland, the meto warning is going for significant snow above 200m, maybe a some snow down to lower levels if the PPN is heavy enough.

[Cheggers]

Looks like some places could well get several cm's in Scotland, the meto warning is going for significant snow above 200m, maybe a some snow down to lower levels if the PPN is heavy enough.

It would be nice but I think most of us are resigned to rain for the next wee while. UKMO looks better this evening :lol:

Just seen the updated MO warning, so either kiss of death or lamppost watching may be in order.

Edited January 21, 2010 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

It would be nice but I think most of us are resigned to rain for the next wee while. UKMO looks better this evening

Have a look out for Sunday morning http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-7.GIF?21-18 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-594.GIF?21-18

Might deliver something! The northerly potential is still there after this, but it's a bit too hard to call at the moment and depends how far south the PV drops without being shunted east.

[blitzen]

A tad disappointing again then. Thought we were in for a fair old dumping but apparently not! Dewpoints here are not too bad at the moment actually at 0.2c but temps are rising. Now at 2.8c - ho hum.

[Cheese Rice]

A tad disappointing again then. Thought we were in for a fair old dumping but apparently not! Dewpoints here are not too bad at the moment actually at 0.2c but temps are rising. Now at 2.8c - ho hum.

I'm sure you will get snow, current temp in Leeds is 2.1c with a DP of 1.4c.

....

I'm keeping an eye on the Scotland thread as I think the Meto are under estimating the snow potential, even I think I could achieve several cm's.

[Snowplough33]

Be intersesting to see if anyone gets some snow tonight. Looks like people with some hieght will.

Snowing at camera 905 Drumochter and 921 Altnafeadh (quite hard to see on the one)

Or it was 10 mins ago

Edited January 21, 2010 by Snowplough33

[lorenzo]

Plenty of precipitation on the way on the radar. Let's just see what it turns out to be...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Evening all.

Down to 1.7 C but biting wind. If the snow level is 200 m, might have a chance here. Certainly feels baltic.

Freezing rain maybe?

Still 4" lying widely here, maybe 65% total ground cover.