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Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

It's been snowing here for four hours! Everything is white! Not really forecast...

Congrats. I'm planning to head up to Carrbridge for the weekend to get some skiing in at Cairngorm next weekend.

No sign of the stupid amounts of snow they have dissapearing by then!

http://www.winterhighland.info/pix/pixalbum.php?pix_id=586

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Thanks LSS for the ongoing updates, even if many seem to have lost hope.

It's still hardly what I would call mild and cold zonality is better than blow torch SWerlys. While things may not appear uber cold for the next week or two, we still have a fair bit of winter left yet and I remain upbeat about a decent reasonable snowy spell before the spring arrives, even if it may only be a few day one. Cold zonality is certainly good for the ski areas as it keeps the Ts low enough and tops up the snow.

18Z throws another spanner into the works with a longer northerly flow, 2 potential frontal snow events and,after another low pushes southeast, the block staying north and west enough to allow for a pretty cold, albeit mainly dry, spell with lows tracking south through Scandi. http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100123/18/120/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100123/18/141/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100123/18/180/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100123/18/216/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100123/18/288/h500slp.png

That last chart is deep FI, and totally different to the other runs today, but I'm posting it to show that a return of the block to our north is not totally off the table, nor is any solution really at this range, contrary to some of what is being said on the model discussion thread.

2.9C here with no sign of any wintry PPN tonight. Hope others have better luck!

LS

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Had a bit of wet snow and sleet this evening but seems to have stopped for a bit now, some wet snow sticking/frozen on grass and currently 0c so will have some very dangerous icy roads in the morning. Large areas of snow still left in sheltered north facing fields, so still loking very wintry. 50% of farm road still extremely icy so very few people venturing up it.

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

T dropping slowly here. 1.5 C and drizzle.

Whiteout remains at Soutra, which is only 100-150 m or so higher up than here and 15 miles N.

Recall this happening a few times; sleet/rain at the house, set out for work and find Soutra blocked/covered in snow. Guess that's why they have the snow gates!

Hmm, camera just gone 'unavailable'. Maybe they've realise how wild it is up there tonight. I crawled over in fog and whiteout. Been snowing for 2 hours since.

Actually now getting some wet snow at the house. Not going to wait up for anything better, although could get the sledge out for Soutra apparently.

Edited by scottish skier
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

LS - in relation to your question on the shout board, the rule of thumb (ie not an exact science) with 850 temps is add about 10ºC to get surface temp at sea level.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

LS - in relation to your question on the shout board, the rule of thumb (ie not an exact science) with 850 temps is add about 10ºC to get surface temp at sea level.

Oops, I meant that to read as a statement, not a questionblush.gif. Thanks anyway for the reply smile.gif .

That makes sense, so it is 3C here at the moment with uppers of around -5 (though surely being slightly inland must make the difference less than on the coast +41m altitude also factored in). I suppose this rule is probably most effective when it's cloudy, as when it's clear at night in winter with very little wind the temperature can drop to freezing almost regardless of the uppers. Conversely, we had a day with uppers around -8 but strong easterlies (any hint of northeast would've been colder I reckon) and cloud cover and temperatures were 4C all day!

LS

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Just watching the tennis on the box and wandered to the window. Rain and sleet at the streetlight - and every now and again a visible "downdraft" of snow. Temps must be right on the margin here and looking at the radar just now theres enough local intensity to produce the white stuff in amongst the rain.

Fully expect higher/outer parts of town to be seeing more snow than rain .. but its of the wet variety so expect The Pentlands to be the chief beneficiary.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Sleeting heavily here! I know this because I have just walked home from a SciFiSoc film night from Haymarket to Medows with converse on...I think I have frost bite xD

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Still heavy enough here to have produced a layer of cold slush-puppy gloop on car windscreens up and down the street.

If its falling in the higher parts of town then it'll be on the ground, even if it is of the grey, wet and yeuchy variety.

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Posted
  • Location: Brittany, France
  • Location: Brittany, France

A raw morning with a cm of snow. Temp currently just above freezing.

Just looking at the eastern European temp as I have a friend who lives outside Bucharest and wow.......max temp during the day is -13C

That is :lazy: !!!

Edited by Gilly
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Cross model agreement for a cold push from the north from about Wednesday-Sunday this week. I give up! :lazy: Another dreich morning here - Temps and dewpoints the same at 4.1oC, wind: ENE.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Think folk are going to be a bit happier with the charts today..... Thank you Zonal Wind and MJO convection :lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Well, what a difference a day makes! Once again we have something to look forward to. The 06z continues the theme of a northerly. In fact that run is slightly better than the 00z as everything is a bit further west and north which helps sustain the northerly for longer. I don't know why I am getting excited over a northerly, as they don't deliver much for this area. But at least it will be cold! Can't remember if the deep snow we had in March, 2006 came from a northerly or a north easterly- anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl
  • Location: Tarves, Aberdeenshire, 86m asl

Woke up this morning and ALL last night's snow had melted... temp back above 4C.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

The models have changed pretty dramatically over night from a meandering mild set up to a cold one. So yes it looks like a cold spell is on the cards.

The next 24 hours are interesting to see if all the models come on line with the same progression of the cold pool.

From Wednesday > Thursday we have the pleasure of some Arctic air firing its way down towards the UK and projections are for this to last for 3-4 days.

Temperatures and ppn are looking favourable for snow - even in a Northerly set up.

So yes - cold is on its way back for what is looking like the first week of February.

Sorry to disappoint. whistling.gifdrinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Damnit I mean I love cold as much as the next person I just dont like the heating bills with it!

Thanks for the translation, I need the "dumbass guide to weather models." book.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Got a bit panicky watching the Countryfile forecast with all the mild air they were forecasting. They got there in the end however but a tad later than what the current models are suggesting? I think Country Tracks produce an updated forecast around 7pm don't they? Certainly a turnaround from yesterday!

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Posted
  • Location: Out the back of Monifieth .. .. 50m ish
  • Location: Out the back of Monifieth .. .. 50m ish

The models have changed pretty dramatically over night from a meandering mild set up to a cold one. So yes it looks like a cold spell is on the cards.

The next 24 hours are interesting to see if all the models come on line with the same progression of the cold pool.

From Wednesday > Thursday we have the pleasure of some Arctic air firing its way down towards the UK and projections are for this to last for 3-4 days.

Temperatures and ppn are looking favourable for snow - even in a Northerly set up.

So yes - cold is on its way back for what is looking like the first week of February.

Sorry to disappoint. whistling.gifdrinks.gif

[/quote

Dont want to put a damper, but lets be cautious because away from the far north a Northerly usually does not deliever to Central areas, although there was a goood fall just before X-mas from the North. Here's hoping, but often close but no cigar.!!

Edited by Snowplough33
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

No dampener SP , at least we have part one in play = cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I agree with SP33 - straight northerlies do not deliver to Central Scotland UNLESS the low is fairly close, Allowing fronts and troughs to push gold south polar lows form. The latter is easily the most effective at delivering snowfall, and conditions do look favorable for close to PL training.

LS

edit: best bet of getting a northeasterly of sorts or a shortwave is from the UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?24-06

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Straight Northerlies are deceptive - totally agree here.

More interesting this time is the timeframe of this event - longer lasting than previous.

Although the caveat is there that they do not deliver, there was plenty of action around Edinburgh in the las Nrthly set up.

Going to be an interesting week ahead.. The low over Scandanavia could turn things North Easterly..

Can already see the satellite page getting locked in for PL formation from Weds evening..

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

My experience of northerlies in Edinburgh is that they tend to be one of two kinds:

Type A, by far the most common having an instance of say three out of four occasions: Cold, breezy, blue skies and sunny. Night frosts and a clear view out over the Forth of heavy snow showers passing down the north sea to hit the very east of East Lothian/Scottish Borders and NE England.

or

Type B, say one occurrence out of four: As above - but a more disturbed flow (ie kinks appearing in the isobars from the flow). That then randomly triggers spells of snow which are unforecastable and appear suddenly out of nowhere, and more often than not at that time in the morning when dew points and temps are just starting to rise due to the effect of the sun after a cold frosty night.

Wonder which type this will be for us :cc_confused:

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