Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

What do people want in here! it seems unless theres ice floes in the Channel then its a waste of time! the ECM is very cold at least to 144 hrs. People need to get a grip here, do people remember some of the continual mild dross for so many winters at which point these charts would be welcomed with open arms, sometimes I wish a Bartlett would appear to give people a kick up the behind that we're very lucky to have seen the recent cold spell and also that at least the outlook looks colder! i just give up sometimes!

count to ten Nick. at least we've seen two ecm runs that are i) consistent ii) generally fit in with the NAEFS ens re placement of the block to our west. i still think ukmo at T144 is over optimistic with WAA off the eatsern seaboard due to the axis of the ridge and shortwave in the western atlantic. mind you, it just shows what a small difference in the shape of the pattern can make a day or so later. again we see the retrogressive signal up to greenland filled in a jiffy.

[ChartViewer]

What do people want in here! it seems unless theres ice floes in the Channel then its a waste of time! the ECM is very cold at least to 144 hrs. People need to get a grip here, do people remember some of the continual mild dross for so many winters at which point these charts would be welcomed with open arms, sometimes I wish a Bartlett would appear to give people a kick up the behind so that they realize we're very lucky to have seen the recent cold spell and also that at least the outlook looks colder! i just give up sometimes!

Nick,

I suggest unless we gt 492 air over the UK some members are going to be unhappy...Shame as ECM is a good run

Regards

CV

[john mac]

What do people want in here! it seems unless theres ice floes in the Channel then its a waste of time! the ECM is very cold at least to 144 hrs. People need to get a grip here, do people remember some of the continual mild dross for so many winters at which point these charts would be welcomed with open arms, sometimes I wish a Bartlett would appear to give people a kick up the behind so that they realize we're very lucky to have seen the recent cold spell and also that at least the outlook looks colder! i just give up sometimes!

I agree with you Nick, I think the things is that people have been spoilt by the recent cold spell and now expect the next one to be the same and if it isnt then the world is at its end For my location cold wise it was excellent but as for snow i had more last february, Dont forget folks still oficially six weeks of winter left and may be more.

[January Snowstorm]

What do people want in here! it seems unless theres ice floes in the Channel then its a waste of time! the ECM is very cold at least to 144 hrs. People need to get a grip here, do people remember some of the continual mild dross for so many winters at which point these charts would be welcomed with open arms, sometimes I wish a Bartlett would appear to give people a kick up the behind so that they realize we're very lucky to have seen the recent cold spell and also that at least the outlook looks colder! i just give up sometimes!

Sorry what i should have said is 'no notable cold that has risk of snow'

Yes it looks seasonably cold, with frost when it's cold.

Snow is my preference, cold, dry is a waste of valuable Winter time imo

Enjoy the frost though those who seek that

[nick sussex]

Indeed Nick, it looks like a quiet spell might be on the way but it's a miles away from the horror show of 2006 and 2007. I think my frost counter might go up a few notches next week.

Yes I agree with you it really looks fine to me, but people are now obsessed with every cold spell having to be a major freeze otherwise they think its a waste of time! If people want to see a horror show they should look at the output archives for 88/89 and then maybe they might just appreciate the current winter! It's always the same the more you get the more you want, so in a sense this thread is the perfect mirror of todays society!

And then given the way the models have been for the last few days people assume that what the models show in FI is likely to remain the same! It's an evolving situation which may or may not produce a northerly but i hope people can understand the word EVOLVING!

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM is a very good run tonight, much improved from yesterdays 12z horror show. A good part of the displaced PV drops into Scandinavia on this run by T+240

[La Bise]

You never know Nick, people might realise we are having it good this winter. You're in right place to hope for a miracle

[January Snowstorm]

Yes I agree with you it really looks fine to me, but people are now obsessed with every cold spell having to be a major freeze otherwise they think its a waste of time! If people want to see a horror show they should look at the output archives for 88/89 and then maybe they might just appreciate the current winter! It's always the same the more you get the more you want, so in a sense this thread is the perfect mirror of todays society!

And then given the way the models have been for the last few days people assume that what the models show in FI is likely to remain the same! It's an evolving situation which may or may not produce a northerly but i hope people can understand the word EVOLVING!

Is there not a point in the fact that if a cold spell doesn't deliver snow it might aswell be warm so we can save on oil bills, elderly can get out their house etc.

I'm all for cold if it leads to snow, high pressure over us is the great 'time burner' that it so often has proved in the past.If i got a pound for every time we had high pressure over us that i was told would lead to a bitter spell and didn't i'd be a rich man

This high looks like burning up the rest of Jan imo

[Nick F]

Well, in the short-term you have to swing in favour of the euros, given their agreement wrt a cold wintry snap early next week for SE and E England, but still time for the easterly to be watered down a little towards GFS solution, being still out t+96.

Despite the mesoscale differences between GFS and the ECM early next week - with ECM more bullish with an easterly for southern UK ... into the medium range, the broadscale picture looks pretty similar between the two models with HP building to the west while heights fall to the NE as the PV drops south down across Svalbard towards Scandinavia. Whether this opens up the door for a northerly is anyone's guess, though ECM more in favour of this by amplifying the upper flow wavelengths over the Atlantic.

[nick sussex]

Sorry what i should have said is 'no notable cold that has risk of snow'

Yes it looks seasonably cold, with frost when it's cold.

Snow is my preference, cold, dry is a waste of valuable Winter time imo

Enjoy the frost though those who seek that

Come on JS I thought you've had a good spell of cold over there in Ireland, probably the coldest for many years, fair enough you like the snow but I think you're in danger of taking the output at face value rather than seeing the trend which looks good. In terms of frost, if its not snow thats still fine by me,using your mantra unless it snows you don't care if its just mild dross! Would snow then some beautiful sunny days with frost to enjoy it be acceptable!

[Frosty.]

A good ECM 12z for coldies, a cold start to the week in all areas with a continental flow and some wintry showers in the east especially and then as the E'ly fades during the week the threat of a N'ly for the north by the end of the week with arctic air pushing south.

[ANYWEATHER]

All models have been horrendous lately, looks like they have started to sing a similar song, but only just!! ECM,GFS UKMO does show some sort of Easterly, it will be interesting to see where it goes from now....... :excl:

[January Snowstorm]

Come on JS I thought you've had a good spell of cold over there in Ireland, probably the coldest for many years, fair enough you like the snow but I think you're in danger of taking the output at face value rather than seeing the trend which looks good. In terms of frost, if its not snow thats still fine by me,using your mantra unless it snows you don't care if its just mild dross! Would snow then some beautiful sunny days with frost to enjoy it be acceptable!

Yes lying snow with plenty frost is ideal, ice and frost on it's own is just a danger for folk getting about their daily lives.

I never said we didn't get an amazing cold spell 2 weeks ago, simply saying that the charts to me look poor, at least for snow before 1st Feb

Edited January 21, 2010 by January Snowstorm

[Ben_Cambs]

I hope we do get that northerly, we might get a shot at some frontal snow covering most of the country again.

I think the a likely scenario from ECM at the moment is for a short lived Easterly at the start of next week, giving snow showers to Eastern regions, then by next weekend a Northerly, which has become more frequent on the models, like you said John bringing the risk of frontal snow for a lot of the country if an Atlantic system heads in the direction of Scotland

Edited January 21, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Cloud 10]

ECM is a very good run tonight, much improved from yesterdays 12z horror show. A good part of the displaced PV drops into Scandinavia on this run by T+240

Yes,this is what will determine the potency of the potential northerly,we want to see a big a chunk as possible!

The ukmo 12z has a very large piece heading for scandinavia,but not as big as last night's gfs 18z which basically had the polar vortex in the north sea.

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest id take a northerly arctic air yes please and i live on the southcoast and i acn not understand why people could even try to moan when we had a brillant winter so far.

and with cold snap next week just makes it even better and news of the pv into scandi it could evolve into something good who knows because the models dont.

id say model are accurate up until tues wed next week anything after that id be skeptical.

if i have a snow flurry next week i be really happy i love snow flurries.

[john mac]

I think the a likely scenario from ECM at the moment is for a short lived Easterly at the start of next week, giving snow showers to Eastern regions, then by next weekend a Northerly, which has become more frequent on the models, like you said John bringing the risk of frontal snow for a lot of the country if an Atlantic system heads in the direction of Scotland

TBH mate i was thinkingmore of frontal snow moving south with a low running down the north sea with the trough coming down into scandi

[Ben_Cambs]

TBH mate i was thinkingmore of frontal snow moving south with a low running down the north sea with the trough coming down into scandi

I see what you mean there, though another scenario like what happened on Easter Day 2008, the displacement of the PV into Scandi is really going to be interesting for model watching

[PB22]

Signs of a slight upgrade to the easterly early next week from this evening's 12Z runs bringing an increased risk of wintry showers for the southeast of Britain in particular.

UKMO and ECM are very similar at T+96:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm961.html

And there's some pretty chilly 850hPa temperatures associated with that flow:

The GFS 12z isn't as keen, but a quick look at the ensembles shows the operational was rather on its own in bringing a quick end to the cold air coming in from the east:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Its worth monitoring this time frame as the easterly may well be upgraded slightly over the next few runs - there are a number of ensemble members that look more like the 12z UKMO and ECM, i.e.:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-96.png?12

It's quite astonishing to see the differences amongst the GFS ensemble suit at just T+96!

The T+96 and T+120 UKMO FAX charts later this evening will strongly support their own model I suspect.

[phil nw.]

What do people want in here! it seems unless theres ice floes in the Channel then its a waste of time! the ECM is very cold at least to 144 hrs. People need to get a grip here, do people remember some of the continual mild dross for so many winters at which point these charts would be welcomed with open arms, sometimes I wish a Bartlett would appear to give people a kick up the behind so that they realize we're very lucky to have seen the recent cold spell and also that at least the outlook looks colder! i just give up sometimes!

Hi Nick,

Yes indeed a chilly and cloudy weekend after tonight`s rain as pressure builds again and by T96hrs.quite cold air covering the East.

Maybe some snow flurries for some places close to the SE coast but essentialy it looks a cloudy and dry start to next week in a light Easterly.

The trend from midweek looks to move the High West as Low pressure comes over the top into Scandinavia.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Uncertainty here on how far North the High would build when in the Atlantic.

If the flow buckles here then we could get pressure rising further North inducing a much better Northerly.

The UKMO suggests this at T144hrs.and ECM shows the further development here,

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1

So maybe not the cold we have had over recent weeks but no Mild weather on the horizon yet.

[nick sussex]

TBH mate i was thinkingmore of frontal snow moving south with a low running down the north sea with the trough coming down into scandi

Take a look at the JMA tonight that shows the perfect example of how to keep the cold going from easterly to northerly, its a textbook example, its a cannon fodder model but as an example of what you want to see it's great.

[Frosty.]

Hope we get the Northerly which is hinted at by the ukmo 12z and then arrives on the ecm 12z by next friday in scotland, sadly it's too far out of the reliable timeframe yet but the model output excluding the gfs has wintry potential for much of the uk at some point next week. The ukmo Northerly could be a near miss and just hit eastern coastal counties or just blast down the north sea but at least we have a chance. It's been quite a few weeks now since the initial N'ly triggered the first wintry spell so we are overdue the next one.

[cooling climate]

I have to agree with what Nick Sussex and others have said on the previous page regarding the model

output but I have to agree it depends where you live. For example I would rather live here in the east

than Ireland or the northwest of Scotland purely from a cold and snow perspective (although I do not

expect to see much of the latter).

The ECM was certainly a good run especially for this neck of the woods and although its FI the t240

chart looks especially promising with a tanking AO and a developing +PNA pattern once again.

If we get to a -AO and +PNA pattern then this would benefit both the eastern US, Europe and the

UK as it would again help to lock in any cold pattern.

An interesting read from our local bbc weather presenter, well known for his cold ramping. For people like me who are a novice at understanding the model outputs I think he explains them quite clearly. Appologies if the mods find this more media related, I just felt it adds another opinion to the general model discussion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

He goes on to talk about the possible weather next week and January cet.

LOL he really wants to go back and check the CET for January 1963 again.

[Eugene]

Some excellent output again tonight, GFS 12Z OP looks the poorest but is one of the warmest runs for mid next week on the GFS 12Z ensembles, still a chance of a potent easterly or northerly or worst case scenario fog and frost.

[Cloud 10]

Take a look at the JMA tonight that shows the perfect example of how to keep the cold going from easterly to northerly, its a textbook example, its a cannon fodder model but as an example of what you want to see it's great.

Wetter : Wetterzentrale : Top Karten : Prognose - JMA Europa

Perfect,it all looks so simple!