February CET

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, after a much different winter so far synoptically to most of the last 22 years, will it continue into February or will it be back to the typical mild modern 1990s and 2000s type February? Last February had a cold snowy first half, but this was spoilt by a very mild second half. February often used to be the coldest month of the year at least in the 1900s before 1988, but since then it has often produced mild or very mild weather with only infrequent exceptions.

Post guesses and discussion here.

[damianslaw]

Well, after a much different winter so far synoptically to most of the last 22 years, will it continue into February or will it be back to the typical mild modern 1990s and 2000s type February? Last February had a cold snowy first half, but this was spoilt by a very mild second half. February often used to be the coldest month of the year at least in the 1900s before 1988, but since then it has often produced mild or very mild weather with only infrequent exceptions.

Post guesses and discussion here.

I'll not be giving my Feb guess till next week.

Mmmm I disagree with your statement about Feb since 1988 producing mostly dry and very mild weather, in fact on average since 1988 it has been the coldest month of the winter, colder than January on many an occassion examples of this being 1991, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2009. Yes there have been some very mild Febs such as 1989, 1990, 1993, 1997, 1998 and 2007 but so too were many of the Decs and Jans in those winters.

February is much more likely to deliver a settled cold spell of weather with plenty of frost than Dec and Jan. Even the relatively mild Feb 07 delivered a very heavy snowfall to the midlands, the heaviest in a long while.

[AderynCoch]

Mmmm I disagree with your statement about Feb since 1988 producing mostly dry and very mild weather, in fact on average since 1988 it has been the coldest month of the winter,

Believe it or not, the coldest month of the winter since 1988 has actually been December.

Drawing from personal experience, I would definitely say February has been the main snow month during my lifetime. There have been several winters where I've had to wait until February for any snow (if it ever arrived at all).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

very mild February coming up with dominant SW/W winds, 7.1C cet my guess

[AderynCoch]

very mild February coming up with dominant SW/W winds, 7.1C cet my guess

February 1945 came in at 7.1C - the preceding January averaged 0.4C. As good a caveat as any I suppose.

Still, if we go along with that logic we should note that the last week of January 1945 was very cold - the CET maximum for the 26th was a not-so-balmy -4.5C (as far as I'm aware, dating back to 1878 only the famous 12th January 1987 has a lower CET maximum - a scant -5.7C).

[Richard Lake]

From my limited knowledge the teleconnections do not lend themselves to a mild/very February. I would plump for a below average month, not significantly, but very notablely all the same. I will also post my 'guess' the middle of next week.

Edited January 22, 2010 by rikki

[Devon-Nelly]

My inatial thoughts on Feb right back in December were of it being a possible cold/very cold month, mainly due to my thinking El Nino would start to wane, that el nino winters tend to be more colder late on, low solar activty, -QBO and also i had read somewhere might have been on here about the likely hood of a stratospheric warming being more likely due to the solar activity and the -QBO state, so with these in mind i had tentive thoughts about Feb either being Very cold or Very Mild depending on how things panned out.

I'm still sticking with Feb being cold/ possibly very cold and quite dry so my early punt at the moment is for 1.9c

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

2.5C

[Ben_Cambs]

Im going to go for a slightly colder than average month, with one good cold spell around mid month. The Atlantic is likely to quieten down in Feb IMO. I fully expect cold snaps aswell from the North. The last sub 3C February was in 1996, which the CET was 2.5C

Im going to punt for 3.2C

I seriously believe we can get through the rest of the winter without a you know what scenario!

Edited January 22, 2010 by Snowman0697

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not going to guess it quite yet but I suspect somewhere between 2.8C and 3.5C is feasible

[kold weather]

A real tough one this one thanks to rather conflicting signals, however I'd be surprised if its as cold as Jan...but I'm not going to make a call right now to be honest on that!

[Guest]

Think the first part of Feb will be fairly cold and it will warm up a little towards the end as Spring approaches - I'll go for 3.5C.

[summer blizzard]

Similar to this month with a very cold first half and a breakdown just after mid-month, however high pressure will tend to be much closer to the UK leading to higher maxima so a final CET of 2.7C, 1.5C below average.

1.9C: Devon-Nelly

2.5C: Atlantic Flamethrower

2.7C: Summer Blizzard

3.2C: Snowman 0697

3.5C: Mike Meehan

Mark Forster 630: 7.1C

Edited January 23, 2010 by summer blizzard

[Lettucing Gutted]

8C

[sunny scunny]

I'll go for 4.7C.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

8C

lol so the warmest one on record ever?

I'll go for 3.4 please

[stewfox]

I'll not be giving my Feb guess till next week.

Agree with model upgrades this morning far to early to 'guess' at the moment

Feb 9th is my birthday often had snow including Feb 9th 1986 my 21st

I wouldnt be surprised if Feb 9th is the snowest day each year over a period of 100yr period , any records on that ??

[Typhoon John]

A preliminary 4C from me.

[osmposm]

February's CET mean stats:

1961 - 1990: 3.8

1971 - 2000: 4.2

1981 - 2009: 4.4

10-yr running: 5.0

5-yr running: 4.7

There were already signs that things were settling back down a bit after the exceptional highs of 1990, 1998 (both 7.3) & 2002 (7.0), and that feeling can only be stronger now.

AderynCoch, your caveat about 1945's 7.1 is well taken, but I will go (for the time being) for an only slightly above average

+4.4

(I'm tempted by something a bit lower, but am swayed by the rarity of winters that manage three cold/coldish months.)

Edited January 23, 2010 by osmposm

[SteveB]

4.1c

[paul tall]

-2.8º

[Roger J Smith]

4.9 C

[igloo]

i think it will be 5.4c

[Alex95]

-2.8º

Fahrenheit or Celsius, the latter I hope!

3.7ºC for me

[Snowstorm1]

3.5C a mild first half but the second half a lot colder and snowier again

Edited January 23, 2010 by Snowstorm1